What is the impact of missing the 7NM node with EUV?

What is the impact of missing the 7NM node with EUV?
by Robert Maire on 10-23-2016 at 12:00 pm

ASML reported a quarter that was slightly below expectations coming in at Euro 1.815B in revenues and Euro 0.93 EPS. Orders were a bit soft at Euro 1.4B but well within the normal quarterly variation of a lumpy business. Euro 28M was lost in a currency adjustment associated with the Hermes acquisition.

The guidance for Q4 was between… Read More


What’s the Intel Capex Outlook?

What’s the Intel Capex Outlook?
by Robert Maire on 10-23-2016 at 7:00 am

Intel has terrific QTR & slightly light guide Intel is recovering & transforming at the same time. Whats the Capex outlook? Impact on ASML KLAC LRCX?

Intel reported revenues of $15.78B and earnings of $0.80 for the quarter beating expectations and previous upward guidance. CCG (PCs) were up 21% Q/Q and 5% Y/Y. Data center… Read More


DOJ takes victory Lap in KLAC / LRCX deal post mortem (3 of 3)

DOJ takes victory Lap in KLAC / LRCX deal post mortem (3 of 3)
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2016 at 4:00 pm

The KLA deal died due to fox guarding the hen house.

Fox can’t guard Hen House…
In an industry where there are relatively few widget makers and only one, very dominant, widget inspector, the thought of one of the widget makers buying the most crucial widget inspector obviously would be anti-competitive. Not only would… Read More


The KLAM deal has died now how will KLAC and LRCX recover? (2 of 3)

The KLAM deal has died now how will KLAC and LRCX recover? (2 of 3)
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2016 at 12:00 pm

As we had been suggesting the merger deal between KLAC and LRCX has failed. It obviously ran into too many complications, costs or other issues to continue. Unlike the Applied TEL deal which went on for a staggering 18 months before calling it quits in this case 12 months was enough to figure out it wasn’t getting done.

In our … Read More


KLAC & LRCX – Fall Out from the deal Falling Apart (1 of 3)

KLAC & LRCX – Fall Out from the deal Falling Apart (1 of 3)
by Robert Maire on 10-09-2016 at 7:00 am

The odds of deal completion has fallen to low levels. Whats the fallout on the companies and stocks? Is there life after a failed merger?

“A quagmire wrapped up inside an enigma” – LRCX & KLAC’s merger is the talk of the town, both in the semiconductor equipment industry as well as DOJ watchers in Washington… Read More


KLAM Kommentary – Assessing the political landscape of approval

KLAM Kommentary – Assessing the political landscape of approval
by Robert Maire on 09-16-2016 at 12:00 pm

LRCX & KLAC’s merger continues to be closely watched given the recent turns and reversals we have seen which call into question the ability to get the deal done. The deal was announced in October of 2015 and we are on our second request from the DOJ and the deal will almost certainly go beyond the Oct 20th, one year deadlineRead More


Further delays in KLAM deal not a good omen

Further delays in KLAM deal not a good omen
by Robert Maire on 08-14-2016 at 4:00 pm

Deal likely getting worse as time & remedies go by…
Just a couple of short weeks ago on the earnings conference call, Lam management was adamant about the KLAM deal getting done and done by the Oct 20th deadline. Martin Anstice, the CEO , went to great lengths to tell us that the deal was under control, was going to happen,
Read More


KLAC accelerates business into Q4 and where are we on the KLAM deal?

KLAC accelerates business into Q4 and where are we on the KLAM deal?
by Robert Maire on 08-09-2016 at 12:00 pm

While no one was really paying attention, and the company didn’t have an earnings call anyway, KLAC put up a strong beat. Revenues came in at $919M versus street of $842M and EPS came in at $1.77 easily beating $1.42 street.

However this was at the expense of the September quarter as it appears that business in the September quarter… Read More


ASML pays $3.1B for Hermes to get E-beam inspection

ASML pays $3.1B for Hermes to get E-beam inspection
by Robert Maire on 06-21-2016 at 7:00 am

Cheap versus year ago but expensive on fundementals – Net negative for KLAC/LRCX & AMAT. ASML bought Hermes Microvision for much the same reason as the Cymer acquisition – to support EUV. ASML could have made a counter offer for KLAC (as we had suggested previously) but this obviously would have been much more expensive… Read More