LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down

LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down
by Robert Maire on 10-27-2024 at 8:00 am

Happy Lamb
  • Lam put in good quarter with flattish guide- still a slow recovery
  • This is better than worst case fears of order drop like ASML
  • China spend is slowing but tech spending increase offsets
  • Relief rally as the market was braced for bad news and got OK news
Lam has OK, slightly better than in line quarter with OK guide….

It coulda been… Read More


ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake

ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
by Robert Maire on 10-16-2024 at 10:00 am

ASML 2024 Downturn
  • Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
  • Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
  • China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
  • AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
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Asia Driving Electronics Growth

Asia Driving Electronics Growth
by Bill Jewell on 09-26-2024 at 4:00 pm

Electronics Production 2024 September

Electronics production in the major developed countries has been showing slow growth or declines in 2024. United States electronics production three-month-average change versus a year ago (3/12 change) was 0.4% in July 2024, the slowest since the pandemic year of 2020. Growth has been slowing since averaging 6.5% in 2022 and… Read More


The Semiconductor Business will find a way!

The Semiconductor Business will find a way!
by admin on 09-09-2024 at 6:00 am

Endless Loop of Sanctions rotates while China buys more

Embargoes and other fun stuff in the Semiconductor Tools Market

While this post dives into the semiconductor tool market’s Q2 data, it is also about the senseless embargo game currently in place. The post illustration shows what my notebooks look like as embargoes enforce what they are supposed to suppress and are replaced… Read More


Nvidia Pulled out of the Black Well

Nvidia Pulled out of the Black Well
by Claus Aasholm on 09-03-2024 at 6:00 am

Nvidia Pulled the Quarter out of the Well

Despite a severe setback, Nvidia pulled it off once again

There have been serious concerns about the ROI on AI and yield problems with Blackwell, but Nvidia pulled it off again and delivered a result significantly above guidance.

Beating the revenue guidance of $28B with 2B$ to just above 30B$, representing 15% QoQ and a 122% YoY … Read More


The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped

The China Syndrome- The Meltdown Starts- Trump Trounces Taiwan- Chips Clipped
by Robert Maire on 07-18-2024 at 8:00 am

China Syndrome
  • The chip industry got a double tap of both China & Taiwan concerns
  • Bloomberg reported the potential for draconian China chip restrictions
  • Trump threw Taiwan under the bus demanding “protection money”
  • Over-inflated chip stocks had a “rapid unscheduled disassembly”
US looking to further restrict
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What if China doesn’t want TSMC’s factories but wants to take them out?

What if China doesn’t want TSMC’s factories but wants to take them out?
by admin on 07-02-2024 at 10:00 am

Foundry Numbers 2024

Insights into the Semiconductor Industry and the Semiconductor Supply Chain

I am not an expert in geopolitical issues, but lately, my research has begun to worry me. As I was preparing to be interviewed for Chinese media, I was in my “Chinese Zone”, adapting to what is palatable to a Chinese audience. Maybe my mode provoked the thought:… Read More


Intel should be the Free World’s Plan A Not Plan B, and we need the US Government to step in

Intel should be the Free World’s Plan A Not Plan B, and we need the US Government to step in
by admin on 02-19-2024 at 6:00 am

TSMC Intel

There are trillions of dollars at stake with AI and huge geopolitical consequences. However, the weak foundation to American technological power is their dependence on Taiwan and TSMC, which is where most advanced silicon is manufactured. America has also been taking China to the ropes lately in their economic/technology proxy… Read More


2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand

2024 Semiconductor Cycle Outlook – The Shape of Things to Come – Where we Stand
by Robert Maire on 01-24-2024 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor Industry Outlook 2024
  • What kind of recovery do we expect, if any, after 2 down years?
  • What impact will China have on the recovery of mature market chips?
  • What will memory recovery look like? Will we return to stupid spend?
  • Stock selection ever more critical in tepid recovery
Chip stocks have rocketed but the industry itself, not so much, “Anticipation….is
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AMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter

AMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter
by Robert Maire on 11-19-2023 at 8:00 pm

Criminal Investigation

– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook

Reuters broke the news on the day of earnings
Read More