The global semiconductor market has been on a decline (three-month-average change versus a year ago) since July 2015 according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). Although numerous factors affect the semiconductor market (capacity and utilization, prices, inventory levels) in the near term, the long term growth… Read More
Tag: bill jewel
Semiconductor market going negative?
Several recent forecasts for the 2016 semiconductor market point to a decline. The title of this post is the same as we used for in October 2015. In October, Semiconductor Intelligence projected the market would grow 1.0% in 2015 despite several predictions of the market going negative. 2015 finished with a slight 0.2% decline.… Read More
Semiconductor capital spending slow in 2016
The outlook for semiconductor capital expenditures (capex) in 2016 is weak. Gartner’s January 2016 forecast called for a decline of 4.7%. IC Insights in February projected a 0.8% decline. The table below shows the Gartner forecast along with the capex forecasts from the top three spenders (Intel, Samsung and TSMC) which… Read More
Shifting Asia Electronics Production
Japan emerged as the largest supplier of consumer electronics in the 1980s. The Japan surge was driven by lower cost labor than in the U.S. and Europe as well as innovative products from companies such as Sony, Toshiba and Panasonic (formerly Matsushita). By the 1990s much consumer electronics production shifted to South Korea… Read More
Semiconductor capital spending consolidating
Shipments of semiconductor wafer fab equipment are expected to grow 2.5% in 2016 after 0.5% growth in 2015 according to the December forecast from Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). Gartner is more pessimistic, with its October forecast calling for fab equipment to decline 0.5% in 2015 and drop 2.5%… Read More
Semiconductor market going negative?
The outlook for the semiconductor market for the remainder of 2015 is mixed. Intel’s 3Q 2015 revenues were up 10% from 2Q 2015 and guidance is for 2.3% growth in 4Q 2015. Most other companies which have announced 3Q 2015 results expect revenue declines in 4Q 2015. The most severe drops (based on the midpoint of company guidance) are… Read More
Growth drivers shifting to emerging economies
Global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2015 is expected to be 3.5%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) April 2015 report. 2015 is a slight acceleration of 0.1 percentage points from 3.4% growth in 2014. The IMF projects 2016 global growth of 3.8%, an acceleration of 0.3 percentage points from 2015. The… Read More
Global Electronics Trending Upward
Global electronics production is on a generally positive trend. The chart below shows three-month-average change versus a year ago (3/12 change) for electronics production by country or region in local currency. Total industrial production is shown for Europe and South Korea since electronics production data is not available.… Read More
Semiconductor equipment returns to growth
Semiconductor manufacturing equipment has returned to growth after a falloff in the second half of 2011. Combined data from SEMI (U.S. andEuropean companies) and SEAJ (Japanese companies) show billings peaked at a three-month-average of $3.2 billion in May 2011. Bookings and billings began todrop in June 2011, with billings… Read More
Semiconductor Forecast: 2010 Boom – 2011 Bust?
Again, my economic bellwether is TSMC, and judging by the first half, 2010 will go down as one of the most profitable years the semiconductor industry has ever seen. In the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] quarter the foundries again posted record breaking wafer shipments, revenues, and profits. 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter foundry financials should… Read More