You are currently viewing SemiWiki as a guest which gives you limited access to the site. To view blog comments and experience other SemiWiki features you must be a registered member. Registration is fast, simple, and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
While I am not sure about your solution, I agree with the problem statement.
I have THOUGHT that any US president would be hesitant to cause a world-wide recession over his actions (or lack of actions). I honestly do believe that should TSMC in Taiwan be damaged (which I believe would happen for sure should China invade .... either by China's hand on accident, or by Taiwan's hand on purpose).
With this particular president, I am not so certain.
LMAO! Loved this post.
I largely agree. I suspect that should the current administration successfully use Tariffs to plunge the US into recession, that the "Trade Expansion Act" could be overturned in 2028 to avoid such silliness in the future.
As it turns out, much of the "guard rails" on the US administrations over the last several decades have been based more on the theory of "Oh, the president would never do that" or "the US wouldn't elect a president that would do that".
New laws are definitely needed ..... and perhaps an amendment or two to patch up the flaws in the above 2 statements.
I think for the past several US administrations, they have already figured out that one of the best countermeasures to keep the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in check is to make sure the CCP understands that any aggression on Taiwan or other countries in the region will result in the CCP's own severe loss.
A $100 billion investment will not be enough or even possible to build a fully independent semiconductor industry. But $100 billion worth of missiles, drones, and sea mines can easily knock mainland China back 30 or 40 years.
When people talk about those fabs in Taiwan that may be destroyed by the CCP's attacks, they often forget to consider that those fabs and any facilities in mainland China will face the same fate.
The beauty of this approach is that the US does not even need to be the military force to launch the missiles, and the US will not be the only country footing the bill. Further more, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea all have well established domestic missile production programs, in addition to the United States.
I think for the past several US administrations, they have already figured out that one of the best countermeasures to keep the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in check is to make sure the CCP understands that any aggression on Taiwan or other countries in the region will result in the CCP's own severe loss.
A $100 billion investment will not be enough or even possible to build a fully independent semiconductor industry. But $100 billion worth of missiles, drones, and sea mines can easily knock mainland China back 30 or 40 years.
When people talk about those fabs in Taiwan that may be destroyed by the CCP's attacks, they often forget to consider that those fabs and any facilities in mainland China will face the same fate.
The beauty of this approach is that the US does not even need to be the military force to launch the missiles, and the US will not be the only country footing the bill.
I think capital markets prefer 1.4 billion Chinese customers over the lost cause of defending Taiwan.
For the sake of world peace, TSMC should relocate outside of Taiwan. That way, there would be no underlying motives to escalate. Hence, the status quo can be maintained as it is.
I think for the past several US administrations, they have already figured out that one of the best countermeasures to keep the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in check is to make sure the CCP understands that any aggression on Taiwan or other countries in the region will result in the CCP's own severe loss.
A $100 billion investment will not be enough or even possible to build a fully independent semiconductor industry. But $100 billion worth of missiles, drones, and sea mines can easily knock mainland China back 30 or 40 years.
When people talk about those fabs in Taiwan that may be destroyed by the CCP's attacks, they often forget to consider that those fabs and any facilities in mainland China will face the same fate.
The beauty of this approach is that the US does not even need to be the military force to launch the missiles, and the US will not be the only country footing the bill.
If you have the US president saying he won't protect Taiwan unless they pay him to do it, someone in China might perceive that this is the perfect time to take action. Shoot, some US politician might even suggest it if they think it would be in their best interest somehow.
Sorry, that is just how jaded my view on US politics has become (note: For the record, I am a US citizen and US Navy Nuclear program veteran .... so it isn't like I have a background that SHOULD have made me jaded).
I think capital markets prefer 1.4 billion Chinese customers over the lost cause of defending Taiwan.
For the sake of world peace, TSMC should relocate outside of Taiwan. That way, there would be no underlying motives to escalate. Hence, the status quo can be maintained as it is.
I think capital markets prefer 1.4 billion Chinese customers over the lost cause of defending Taiwan.
For the sake of world peace, TSMC should relocate outside of Taiwan. That way, there would be no underlying motives to escalate. Hence, the status quo can be maintained as it is.
US policy and strategy on Taiwan have been very consistent and broadly supported by both parties for the past 40+ years.
The CCP definitely likes to have an economically and militarily weakened Taiwan, as you suggested by moving TSMC fabs out of Taiwan. The US won't be stupid enough to be played into the CCP's hands.
On the other hand, the US always wants Taiwan to have a strong economy and strong military capability. Taiwan, like a sword 200 km from mainland China, is in a much better location for defense than Hawaii or San Francisco.
TSMC and many other Taiwanese industries and military capabilities are part of this US strategy. It's not something a US president would like to change or even could change.
If you have the US president saying he won't protect Taiwan unless they pay him to do it, someone in China might perceive that this is the perfect time to take action. Shoot, some US politician might even suggest it if they think it would be in their best interest somehow.
Sorry, that is just how jaded my view on US politics has become (note: For the record, I am a US citizen and US Navy Nuclear program veteran .... so it isn't like I have a background that SHOULD have made me jaded).
"If you have the US president saying he won't protect Taiwan unless they pay him to do it"
A US president dare to say it or do it, will be corrected and instructed not to do so by the "deep state"
One of the funny yet serious problems is Taiwan always wants to buy more US weapon systems. As of last year there were about $20 billion of backlog that US defense industries have not delivered. Many of them have been delayed for several years and already paid for.
"If you have the US president saying he won't protect Taiwan unless they pay him to do it"
A US president dare to say it or do it, will be corrected and instructed not to do so by the "deep state"
One of the funny yet serious problems is Taiwan always wants to buy more US weapon systems. As of last year there were about $20 billion of backlog that US defense industries have not delivered. Many of them have been delayed for several years and already paid for.
I think that should the US balk (which IMHO they most certainly should NOT), at supporting Taiwan militarily, I can't see China holding back. As it is probable that US policy will see a 180 turn around in 2028, China may see this as their last opportunity. As pointed out, Taiwan will only become much stronger in the future and the cost of invasion will skyrocket.
If tariffs are imposed on chips produced in Taiwan, the biggest impact would likely be on Apple, as it cannot pass on too much of the cost to its customers for the iPhone.
TSMC and Nvidia, on the other hand, can fully pass the cost on to its customers.
If tariffs are imposed on chips produced in Taiwan, the biggest impact would likely be on Apple, as it cannot pass on too much of the cost to its customers for the iPhone.
TSMC and Nvidia, on the other hand, can fully pass the cost on to its customers.
Apple is probably not worried about the tariffs too much. For $100 worth of Taiwan-made chips inside an iPhone, Apple needs to pay an extra $10 (10% tariff) or $20 (20% tariff). These extra tariffs can be easily passed down to the consumers for a $1000 iPhone.
Because most non-Apple smartphones sold in the U.S. are using Qualcomm and MediaTek application processors made by TSMC too, those non-Apple smartphone vendors will face the same extra tariffs. They will probably do the same thing Apple will do - pass the expenses to consumers. They are not in a better or worse situation than Apple.
The situation might be a little bit different for tablets, PCs, and smart watches. In my opinion, the consumers will ultimately shoulder any extra tariffs imposed by Trump.
A high import tax can easily force a coffee mug manufacturer to move the manufacturing location from one country to another. On the other hand, semiconductor manufacturing can't move around the world quickly, if that's possible.
.