Trump To Tariff Chips Made In Taiwan, Targeting TSMC

[OneEng]

I guess many of you missed my post in another thread.

Trump process:

1) Say scary thing publicly
2) Lots of wealthy corporations, countries, and people that stand to lose tons of money give Trump anything he asks for
3) Back off of scary thing and declare it was a success
4) Rince and repeat!

 

[hist78]

Legal challenge does not necessarily mean Congress but I really don't know how tariffs work. I certainly understand the concept but I do not know how they are implemented or will they even work.

If you had to bet, would your money be on Trump implementing the tariffs he has been threatening? Or would it be that tariffs are a bluff?

My money is on bluff to get countries to the bargaining table for other purposes. Reducing the trade deficit would be a good one.

International Trade in Goods and Services | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

www.bea.gov

US congress has enormous power to influence or change foreign and domestic policies through federal budget and legislation (act). Biden or Trump can set tariffs for imported items from certain country of origins. But if the Congress thinks US President's policy is greatly damaging national security and national interest, they have multiple ways to tell the President that it's not a good idea to do so. It's very often that the US President will yield to the Congress' wish. The US President can't afford to have an angry Congress that even his own party doesn't support the president's agenda.

A great example is the Taiwan Relation Act passed in 1978. When President Jimmy Carter (RIP) switched diplomatic relation from Republic of China (Taiwan) to mainland China (PRC), Carter originally didn't care and didn't arrange a robust legal framework and relationship between US and Taiwan after the switch.

Then the Congress stepped in and overwhelmingly passed the Taiwan Relation Act (TRA). The foresight of the Congress ensured a 45+ years of peace in the Asia Pacific. Taiwan emerged as a great example of economic development and democracy achievement. Now the Chinese Communist regime is becoming a threat to US and Taiwan's security, TRA is showing its power and importance again.

It's very hard to tell average people or those who are so used to the dictatorship that although the US President is a very important person, but US government's domestic and international policies are often directed and maintained for a long time by the Congress.

Trump will be in Whitehouse for four years but many representatives and senators have been in their positions for 10, 20 or 30 years. Many of them will stay there for the next 10 or 20 years, long after Trump's retirement.

 

[soAsian]

I present a cynical alternative theory about the tariffs that's gaining some traction on Reddit by a user named joergonix that also depressingly fits my world view:

Biden did not ease off on China. He even double down on taxing China after Trump left the white house.

 

[cliff]

The US President can't afford to have an angry Congress that even his own party doesn't support the president's agenda.

The angry congress can't afford to piss off their constituents who love Trump. Let's see who wins.

 

[benb]

I think China threatens the US as long as 90% of chip production is in Taiwan.

If Taiwan ends up with 50% of chip production, in a US-led tough love campaign, that's better than 0% in a CCP tough-love campaign.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors:

- Our view of chopping the CHIPS Act may be proven correct soon
- Trump announced chip tariffs coming soon- Unclear if it hurts or helps
- Neither Trump's stick nor Biden's carrot can re-shore chips faster
- Chip tariff ramifications have not been fully thought through

Will Trump "stop payment" on CHIPS Act checks??

In several past notes we suggested that the CHIPS Act could be simply undone by the new administration just not cashing the promised checks or dishonoring all the last minute deals signed by the Biden administration at the 11th hour.

We were criticized by many readers for suggesting something so outlandish........

Until we saw the first week of the new administration.......

The new administration in its first week has thrown normal precedent to the wind and clearly thinks anything can be canceled or undone by executive action or whim......

We think the probability of the CHIPS Act being undone, tossed out or just plain ignored has just gone up to a very high probability.

Trump has clearly alluded to that in recent statements about chips.

Chip tariffs coming soon.....

In that same Trump statement on chips he said that chip tariffs would be coming soon.

He said 25%, 50% even 100% taxes on imported chips.

Said 98% of chip production went to Taiwan

Called the CHIPS Act ridiculous

Said some chip companies didn't want CHIPS Act money

Trump obviously has a bone to pick with Taiwan and TSMC

Its unclear who would get hurt by chip tariffs the most - likely consumers

If a 25% tariff were put on imported chips it would have to include any products that contained those imported chips, which is virtually everything made today.

Cars, laptops, TVs , toaster ovens, washers, dryers, cell phones, appliances, IOT, medical devices, communications equipment, aerospace, navigation and perhaps most importantly every AI chip made today, because not many are made in the US.

Talk about an inflationary stimulus .......at the end of the the day consumers would suffer as there is no way at all that all those chips could be made in the US in the next five to ten years. It took the US over 30 years to lose the chip industry and it can't come back in the snap of someone's fingers.

The only real way to make it work would be to slowly ramp up tariffs over many years to give some time to move high value production back otherwise end user (consumers) are screwed and inflation will soar.....

Does the administration realize even US made wafers become imported?

Maybe someone should tell the administration that many wafers that are produced in the US get sent overseas to be packaged thereby making them imported when they return.......

Could TSMC send finished wafers to the US to be packaged thus becoming domestically produced without ever having a fab in the US?

Carrot or stick doesn't matter...re-shoring will take a long time

Whether you incentivize re-shoring by using the Biden "carrot" of the CHIPS Act or the "stick" of Trumps tariffs it will take a long time.

From bare earth to chips rolling out the back door is at least a five year process which doesn't happen any faster wether you tax the hell out of it or throw 100's of billions at it.

They are just two polar opposite ways of accomplishing the same goal, both involving high costs and taking a similar amount of time.....

Could chip tariffs kill AI development in the US?

Since all AI chips are imported, what will happen to the cost of building an AI data center in the US?

Why would I build an AI data center in the US? Maybe I should build an AI data center in Canada (the 51st state) where there are no AI chip tariffs and then just access the data center across the border via the internet.

It would put any AI company wanting to build in the US at an extreme disadvantage versus building elsewhere.

Would it make a potential DeepSeek cost advantage even bigger?????

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot......

Chip tariff ramifications not fully thought out

History shows us that tariffs are not the simple panacea that some will try to claim as there are many, many ramifications and collateral damage that needs to be contemplated and exceptions made.

The pervasiveness of semiconductors means that tariffs would have very far reaching impact as many unthought of consequences. It is not a singular industry or finite products, semiconductors are in everything and everywhere.

Would tariffs be applied to chips used in defense electronics and the military? or used by the government itself?

You could put 1000% tariffs on chips and the industry couldn't reshore quickly enough.


The stocks

The semiconductor industry will likely get whipsawed over the coming weeks and months as the threat of tariffs will hang over the industry like the sword of Damocles.

Companies, like ON semiconductor for one, are still moving production overseas as quickly as possible.

Will semiconductor equipment made in Malaysia , Singapore , Japan and the Netherlands have tariffs slapped on them due to all the chips they contain? Thereby countering the move to reshore?

Will US companies like TI or Intel that package overseas get tariffed because of that packaging step?

The semiconductor industry will likely see chaos similar to what we are starting to experience in other things touched by the new administration.......

Stocks typically don't like uncertainty or risk and we are certainly entering a period of great uncertainty and if the past week is any sample its going to get weirder.....

Buckle up buttercup........

About Semiconductor Advisors LLC
Semiconductor Advisors is an RIA (a Registered Investment Advisor), specializing in technology companies with particular emphasis on semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies. We have been covering the space longer and been involved with more transactions than any other financial professional in the space. We provide research, consulting and advisory services on strategic and financial matters to both industry participants as well as investors. We offer expert, intelligent, balanced research and advice. Our opinions are very direct and honest and offer an unbiased view as compared to other sources.

 

[hist78]

Lets assume a few things:
1) Today, without a massive tariff, it is convenient to work with TSMC, less risky, lower cost, than Intel or Samsung to fab most leading edge logic chips.
2). This results in roughly 90% of all logic chip production in Taiwan today. It's an amazingly efficient convenient system, which China wants.
3) Chinese Communist Party will attempt to reunify all their territory at some point in the future, probably by force. We believe what they say.
4). Chinese stated policy will result in Taiwan becoming like Ukraine or Syria. Taiwan chip production as we know it will end.
5) Tarriffs can be high enough to create a dilemma that reduces Taiwan chips from 90% to something much lower over several years
6) Chips diffused in Taiwan, Korea, China, USA, Ireland, Israel and Germany can be identified by country of origin and can't be faked
7) Military-grade supply chain surveillance will be required going forward, to keep China-region (Taiwan and China) parts isolated

Regardless of whether there are tariffs or it's a bluff, I think China threatens the US as long as 90% of chip production is in Taiwan. It's a security thing. Trump will need to harm Taiwan in the short term to improve both US and Taiwan security in the long term. It could happen. And maybe it should happen.

If Taiwan ends up with 50% of chip production, in a US-led tough love campaign, that's better than 0% in a CCP tough-love campaign.

1. Diversify the fab locations out side of Taiwan, mainland China and South Korea. Yes, TSMC, Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix are doing exactly that. But there is a big catch. The United States is just one of the several good locations to be considered. US needs to prove it's the best location to do so and to do it consistently in the long run. Without the stability, competitive advantage, and long term commitment, even American semiconductor companies will move away from making chips on us soil. Trump is making a U turn from his own first term Chips Act initiates is really bad.

Uncertainty and breaking promises or contracts might be good for Trump's own business dealings. But he is currently applying his own bad habits in the wrong place. Any multinational enterprise will not place the US as the top destination for manufacturing if they are not sure a legislation passed by the Congress can be thrown out by a US president unilaterally.

2. Will reduce Taiwan's ability and capacity to produce semiconductors help the peace?

Hell no. Such thing is not in the aggressors or dictators' rule books. Never!

Did giving Poland to Hitler stop Nazi to invade and occupy the mainland Europe?

Did occupying Crimea and East Ukraine stop Putin to start the largest war in Europe since WWII to restore the God given glory of Russia?

United States needs a economy and military strong Taiwan as much as Taiwan needs US' support to defeat Chinese Communist Party's aggression.

Without Taiwan, the defense line for the United States won't be in Hawaii. It will be formed from Seattle, San Francisco, to Los Angeles.

If Trump can't or doesn't want to understand this critical situation for the US, the Congress will correct him. Just like the Congress did for the Taiwan Relation Act 45 years ago.

 

[OneEng]

View attachment 2738

Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors:

- Our view of chopping the CHIPS Act may be proven correct soon
- Trump announced chip tariffs coming soon- Unclear if it hurts or helps
- Neither Trump's stick nor Biden's carrot can re-shore chips faster
- Chip tariff ramifications have not been fully thought through

Will Trump "stop payment" on CHIPS Act checks??

In several past notes we suggested that the CHIPS Act could be simply undone by the new administration just not cashing the promised checks or dishonoring all the last minute deals signed by the Biden administration at the 11th hour.

We were criticized by many readers for suggesting something so outlandish........

Until we saw the first week of the new administration.......

The new administration in its first week has thrown normal precedent to the wind and clearly thinks anything can be canceled or undone by executive action or whim......

We think the probability of the CHIPS Act being undone, tossed out or just plain ignored has just gone up to a very high probability.

Trump has clearly alluded to that in recent statements about chips.

Chip tariffs coming soon.....

In that same Trump statement on chips he said that chip tariffs would be coming soon.

He said 25%, 50% even 100% taxes on imported chips.

Said 98% of chip production went to Taiwan

Called the CHIPS Act ridiculous

Said some chip companies didn't want CHIPS Act money

Trump obviously has a bone to pick with Taiwan and TSMC

Its unclear who would get hurt by chip tariffs the most - likely consumers

If a 25% tariff were put on imported chips it would have to include any products that contained those imported chips, which is virtually everything made today.

Cars, laptops, TVs , toaster ovens, washers, dryers, cell phones, appliances, IOT, medical devices, communications equipment, aerospace, navigation and perhaps most importantly every AI chip made today, because not many are made in the US.

Talk about an inflationary stimulus .......at the end of the the day consumers would suffer as there is no way at all that all those chips could be made in the US in the next five to ten years. It took the US over 30 years to lose the chip industry and it can't come back in the snap of someone's fingers.

The only real way to make it work would be to slowly ramp up tariffs over many years to give some time to move high value production back otherwise end user (consumers) are screwed and inflation will soar.....

Does the administration realize even US made wafers become imported?

Maybe someone should tell the administration that many wafers that are produced in the US get sent overseas to be packaged thereby making them imported when they return.......

Could TSMC send finished wafers to the US to be packaged thus becoming domestically produced without ever having a fab in the US?

Carrot or stick doesn't matter...re-shoring will take a long time

Whether you incentivize re-shoring by using the Biden "carrot" of the CHIPS Act or the "stick" of Trumps tariffs it will take a long time.

From bare earth to chips rolling out the back door is at least a five year process which doesn't happen any faster wether you tax the hell out of it or throw 100's of billions at it.

They are just two polar opposite ways of accomplishing the same goal, both involving high costs and taking a similar amount of time.....

Could chip tariffs kill AI development in the US?

Since all AI chips are imported, what will happen to the cost of building an AI data center in the US?

Why would I build an AI data center in the US? Maybe I should build an AI data center in Canada (the 51st state) where there are no AI chip tariffs and then just access the data center across the border via the internet.

It would put any AI company wanting to build in the US at an extreme disadvantage versus building elsewhere.

Would it make a potential DeepSeek cost advantage even bigger?????

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot......

Chip tariff ramifications not fully thought out

History shows us that tariffs are not the simple panacea that some will try to claim as there are many, many ramifications and collateral damage that needs to be contemplated and exceptions made.

The pervasiveness of semiconductors means that tariffs would have very far reaching impact as many unthought of consequences. It is not a singular industry or finite products, semiconductors are in everything and everywhere.

Would tariffs be applied to chips used in defense electronics and the military? or used by the government itself?

You could put 1000% tariffs on chips and the industry couldn't reshore quickly enough.


The stocks

The semiconductor industry will likely get whipsawed over the coming weeks and months as the threat of tariffs will hang over the industry like the sword of Damocles.

Companies, like ON semiconductor for one, are still moving production overseas as quickly as possible.

Will semiconductor equipment made in Malaysia , Singapore , Japan and the Netherlands have tariffs slapped on them due to all the chips they contain? Thereby countering the move to reshore?

Will US companies like TI or Intel that package overseas get tariffed because of that packaging step?

The semiconductor industry will likely see chaos similar to what we are starting to experience in other things touched by the new administration.......

Stocks typically don't like uncertainty or risk and we are certainly entering a period of great uncertainty and if the past week is any sample its going to get weirder.....

Buckle up buttercup........

About Semiconductor Advisors LLC
Semiconductor Advisors is an RIA (a Registered Investment Advisor), specializing in technology companies with particular emphasis on semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies. We have been covering the space longer and been involved with more transactions than any other financial professional in the space. We provide research, consulting and advisory services on strategic and financial matters to both industry participants as well as investors. We offer expert, intelligent, balanced research and advice. Our opinions are very direct and honest and offer an unbiased view as compared to other sources.

As the courts are now showing, publishing an executive order is not the same as putting an executive order into practice.

Presidents can't undo the constitution with an executive order. They can't overturn legislation with an executive order either. They can't stop funding that Congress has approved either (usually).

What they CAN do is terrifying enough. They can infuse huge instability into the market and between countries. They can impose tariffs unilaterally. They can pardon anyone for any reason. They can extract the amount of control provided in any given law that gives governance to the executive branch.

That is enough.

 

[benb]

1. Diversify the fab locations out side of Taiwan, mainland China and South Korea. Yes, TSMC, Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix are doing exactly that. But there is a big catch. The United States is just one of the several good locations to be considered. US needs to prove it's the best location to do so and to do it consistently in the long run. Without the stability, competitive advantage, and long term commitment, even American semiconductor companies will move away from making chips on us soil. Trump is making a U turn from his own first term Chips Act initiates is really bad.

Uncertainty and breaking promises or contracts might be good for Trump's own business dealings. But he is currently applying his own bad habits in the wrong place. Any multinational enterprise will not place the US as the top destination for manufacturing if they are not sure a legislation passed by the Congress can be thrown out by a US president unilaterally.

2. Will reduce Taiwan's ability and capacity to produce semiconductors help the peace?

Hell no. Such thing is not in the aggressors or dictators' rule books. Never!

Did giving Poland to Hitler stop Nazi to invade and occupy the mainland Europe?

Did occupying Crimea and East Ukraine stop Putin to start the largest war in Europe since WWII to restore the God given glory of Russia?

United States needs a economy and military strong Taiwan as much as Taiwan needs US' support to defeat Chinese Communist Party's aggression.

Without Taiwan, the defense line for the United States won't be in Hawaii. It will be formed from Seattle, San Francisco, to Los Angeles.

If Trump can't or doesn't want to understand this critical situation for the US, the Congress will correct him. Just like the Congress did for the Taiwan Relation Act 45 years ago.

The US and Taiwan are too dependent on cheap chip production, which China can threaten. That's the sole point. I probably muddied it with too many assumptions.

I hope TSMC is making their case in Washington. They could be managing this; announce a moratorium on fab construction in Taiwan; announce a plan for 50% of chip production in the USA in 10 years. Now would be the time.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

The US and Taiwan are too dependent on cheap chip production, which China can threaten. That's the sole point. I probably muddied it with too many assumptions.

I hope TSMC is making their case in Washington. They could be managing this; announce a moratorium on fab construction in Taiwan; announce a plan for 50% of chip production in the USA in 10 years. Now would be the time.

Agreed. As I said, this is a negotiation and tariffs are just the opening salvo. Unfortunately, you have to follow through with the threat at some point in time otherwise it is an empty threat.

It is the same in the foundry business. If you want to negotiate price with TSMC and threaten to go to Samsung Foundry you had better do it if you want the upper hand in the negotiations. Nvidia, QCOM, and others have done that which is what I call the NOT TSMC market. Unfortunately, that was not an option with 3nm so wafer pricing has increased. Hopefully Intel Foundry and Samsung do better at 2nm and below.

 

[Paul2]

Agreed. As I said, this is a negotiation and tariffs are just the opening salvo. Unfortunately, you have to follow through with the threat at some point in time otherwise it is an empty threat.

It is the same in the foundry business. If you want to negotiate price with TSMC and threaten to go to Samsung Foundry you had better do it if you want the upper hand in the negotiations. Nvidia, QCOM, and others have done that which is what I call the NOT TSMC market. Unfortunately, that was not an option with 3nm so wafer pricing has increased. Hopefully Intel Foundry and Samsung do better at 2nm and below.

Never answer malice with virtue.

Taiwan can easily armtwist US electronics companies with a force majeure clause, which on my memory always included wording for something exactly like this.

 

[siliconbruh999]

Never answer malice with virtue.

Taiwan can easily armtwist US electronics companies with a force majeure clause, which on my memory always included wording for something exactly like this.

Well the supply chain is complex so one can't call all the shots

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Never answer malice with virtue.

Taiwan can easily armtwist US electronics companies with a force majeure clause, which on my memory always included wording for something exactly like this.

I wonder how many TSMC wafers are actually shipped to the US directly from TSMC? Can TSMC say they will not ship wafer to the US to avoid the tariff?

 

[hist78]

I wonder how many TSMC wafers are actually shipped to the US directly from TSMC? Can TSMC say they will not ship wafer to the US to avoid the tariff?

There are at many possible ways that US customers (consumers, governments, schools, industries, Army, Navy, Air Force, Tesla, Ford, etc.) to get a chip or a final product that contains chips made in Taiwan:

The semiconductors made by Taiwan based fabs such as TSMC, UMC, VIS, Powerchip, WIN Semiconductors, or Micron can be sent to Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) companies in Taiwan, Malaysia, China, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, Korea, Poland, and US, to name a few. They are further made into CPU, GPU, GPU, sensors, chiplets, boards, components, smartphones, watches, servers, tablets, notebooks, routers, switches, 5G/4G networks, medical equipment, hearing aids, cars, trucks, farm machines, and many things in between. The majority of them do not come to US in a pure wafer or the pure retail CPU packaging at all.

Trump's tariff threats against chips made in Taiwan is creating a self inflicted bureaucratic nightmare.

How do you define a "chip"? How do you calculate or separate the value of a "chip" that really belongs to TSMC or UMC and use it as the tax calculation base? And we are talking about thousands of thousands products, components, semi-finished products for all kinds applications.

It will be nonsense If Trump dares to tax the the final products or components to threaten Taiwan or TSMC. For a Dell PC, HP server, IBM mainframe, Cisco router, Apple iPhone, Lockheed Martin F35, Tesla EV, or US Army tactical radio, they are using components coming form all over the world. Taiwan based semiconductor fabs and fabless design companies, such as TSMC, UMC, VIS, Powerchip, WIN. Mediatek, and Realtek are only contributing a small percentage of the overall cost in the final import price.

How do US government impose taxes on the final products or those components used for manufacturing in the US for implementing Trump's intension?

Will US government pick up the tabs to pay more for the Lockheed Martin's F35 for the price increase?

 

[Daniel Nenni]

There are at many possible ways that US customers (consumers, governments, schools, industries, Army, Navy, Air Force, Tesla, Ford, etc.) to get a chip or a final product that contains chips made in Taiwan:

The semiconductors made by Taiwan based fabs such as TSMC, UMC, VIS, Powerchip, WIN Semiconductors, or Micron can be sent to Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) companies in Taiwan, Malaysia, China, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, Korea, Poland, and US, to name a few. They are further made into CPU, GPU, GPU, sensors, chiplets, boards, components, smartphones, watches, servers, tablets, notebooks, routers, switches, 5G/4G networks, medical equipment, hearing aids, cars, trucks, farm machines, and many things in between. The majority of them do not come to US in a pure wafer or the pure retail CPU packaging at all.

Trump's tariff threats against chips made in Taiwan is creating a self inflicted bureaucratic nightmare.

How do you define a "chip"? How do you calculate or separate the value of a "chip" that really belongs to TSMC or UMC and use it as the tax calculation base? And we are talking about thousands of thousands products, components, semi-finished products for all kinds applications.

It will be nonsense If Trump dares to tax the the final products or components to threaten Taiwan or TSMC. For a Dell PC, HP server, IBM mainframe, Cisco router, Apple iPhone, Lockheed Martin F35, Tesla EV, or US Army tactical radio, they are using components coming form all over the world. Taiwan based semiconductor fabs and fabless design companies, such as TSMC, UMC, VIS, Powerchip, WIN. Mediatek, and Realtek are only contributing a small percentage of the overall cost in the final import price.

How do US government impose taxes on the final products or those components used for manufacturing in the US for implementing Trump's intension?

Will US government pick up the tabs to pay more for the Lockheed Martin's F35 for the price increase?

The US has a $100B+ trade deficit with Taiwan. Can that even be fixed with tariffs?

 

[OneEng]

Never answer malice with virtue.

Taiwan can easily armtwist US electronics companies with a force majeure clause, which on my memory always included wording for something exactly like this.

No clause in a contract will protect Taiwan from China should the US simply "do nothing". Trump would simply threaten to do nothing to Taiwan, and make a deal with China that they get the island, and the US gets whatever it wants.

Please don't misinterpret my response as I feel this is disgusting, but I have simply become jaded with how unjust the proceedings with the US government can be these days.

The worst side effect of this transactional justice is that it promotes other world leaders with the same attitude and discourages world leaders that fail to participate.

This is certainly not how we are taught as little kids .

 

[ai268]

No clause in a contract will protect Taiwan from China should the US simply "do nothing". Trump would simply threaten to do nothing to Taiwan, and make a deal with China that they get the island, and the US gets whatever it wants.

Please don't misinterpret my response as I feel this is disgusting, but I have simply become jaded with how unjust the proceedings with the US government can be these days.

The worst side effect of this transactional justice is that it promotes other world leaders with the same attitude and discourages world leaders that fail to participate.

This is certainly not how we are taught as little kids .

"No clause in a contract will protect Taiwan from China should the US simply "do nothing". Trump would simply threaten to do nothing to Taiwan, and make a deal with China that they get the island, and the US gets whatever it wants."


Ha, Ha, Ha, funny guy. You think US has been protecting Taiwan from China's invasion during the last 75 year, since Korean War, just because of "Good-Will". If Taiwan geolocation is like Hong Kong, your argument would be true. You should look at the "Map of Ocean" along Taiwan's coast lines and East China Sea. God forbid, if China took Taiwan, China nuclear submarines will appear at US West Coast with ease, outside of SFO, LAX and SEA. Then why take Greenland? Do not mention that US spent tremendous blood and treasure, compared to Panama Canal, to defeat Imperial Japan during WWII. Spain, Dutch, Ming-Zheng, Qing and Imperial Japan all occupied Formosa before and US even bombed Formosa, including Taiwan current Presidential Palace, during WWII. Remember Qing ceded Formosa to Imperial Japan because of losing the Sino-Japanese war. Truman should take Formosa from Imperial Japan. Why US should give Taiwan to China, just for some semiconductor?

Who lost China and who will lose Taiwan?

 

[Paul2]

No clause in a contract will protect Taiwan from China should the US simply "do nothing". Trump would simply threaten to do nothing to Taiwan, and make a deal with China that they get the island, and the US gets whatever it wants.

Thus it is even more warranted to put him against the wall. As of now, we see US did not come to an aid of a treaty ally in Europe, while it obviously could. And I remember that Carter proved that a US president can abrogate defence treaties at a very little cost to himself. Neither a loss of an ally, nor an outright betrayal is a big enough shocker for US politicians.

The semi industry only got into the spotlight by accident, when a lot of rich, and powerful people were inconvened by lack of new cars, and gadgets, and it was only then when we saw foreign leaders beelining to Taipei. Even during the previous strait crisis, we haven't seen anything like that. That I see what they care about.

The denial of semiconductors, and the subsequent business apocalypse is a rare thing that is both in Taiwan's capability to trigger, and what rich, and powerful people in the West now do know about, and fear, so I would be all for exploiting the opportunity while it lasts. It will be useless to coerce anyone when it will be the time for battle royale in the strait.

If mainland will attack, and destroy TW semi industry, no one will care, but if TW will threaten to effectively cause financial apocalypse by itself, then they will care. The same is a very good reason to hold US down, if legislative yuan will finally set its mind on making Taiwan's own thermonuclear weapons.

 

[benb]

Thus it is even more warranted to put him against the wall. As of now, we see US did not come to an aid of a treaty ally in Europe, while it obviously could. And I remember that Carter proved that a US president can abrogate defence treaties at a very little cost to himself. Neither a loss of an ally, nor an outright betrayal is a big enough shocker for US politicians.

The semi industry only got into the spotlight by accident, when a lot of rich, and powerful people were inconvened by lack of new cars, and gadgets, and it was only then when we saw foreign leaders beelining to Taipei. Even during the previous strait crisis, we haven't seen anything like that. That I see what they care about.

The denial of semiconductors, and the subsequent business apocalypse is a rare thing that is both in Taiwan's capability to trigger, and what rich, and powerful people in the West now do know about, and fear, so I would be all for exploiting the opportunity while it lasts. It will be useless to coerce anyone when it will be the time for battle royale in the strait.

If mainland will attack, and destroy TW semi industry, no one will care, but if TW will threaten to effectively cause financial apocalypse by itself, then they will care. The same is a very good reason to hold US down, if legislative yuan will finally set its mind on making Taiwan's own thermonuclear weapons.

Yes, the US does need a compelling reason, uber-compelling, to engage in a great power, potentially nuclear conflict over Taiwan. The growth parts of the US economy depend on Taiwan, and both China and Taiwan can threaten that. Different ways and different goals but the threat is there.

I think Taiwan is a walk away situation for the US. We need TSMC intact too much, and our motivation to fight is less than China's, so the best move is to win favor with China by doing nothing, muttering about One China being official policy forever. We would then be under China's thumb for technology.

So Taiwan's best move to survive and the US best move to avoid China's thumb is to split the card deck in half. You offer half of TSMC to the US in return for a non-ambiguous defense treaty, possibly with a nuclear deterence. This is the same as declaring war, but with post-war outcomes somewhat more assured--some parts of TSMC will survive, the US could lose and still not be under China's thumb entirely, and that actually seems like how wars are de-escalated (if not avoided entirely). It could mean the war doesn't go nuclear.

 

[XYang2023]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5119696-trump-tariffs-oil-semiconductors/