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Semis are having an immediate impact of everyone's finances with unintended consequences. Advanced low cost sensors (mems) combined with low cost high power computing power are behind the shale oil boom. Everything from exploration to execution has required low cost sensors and computer power not available even ten years ago. The same is true of deep water drilling (5000+ feet depth) that is about to drop to sixty dollars a barrel because of the use of advanced algorithms running on sophisticated computers using data from advanced mems sensor arrays, both not available at reasonable cost just a few years ago. We are about to see a wave of dislocations, political and financial, brought about by these changes. Semis are changing everything, cell phones, oil and I feel the next big market will be medical and 3D printing that make extensive use of semis and mems both directly and indirectly by being used in the design and production of such items. These changes are speeding up to the point we don't understand all the unintended consequences, like the wave of disruptions the oil price drop is now causing, just like it decimated the land line phone business. The next big wave will be medical. By extending the life span just a few years and increasing from there, the actuarial tables to finance pensions and retiree medical will be blown out totally, causing repercussions that we are totally unprepared for. We are going to have to reset every parameter and assumption we have made as individuals, companies and societies. We are woefully unprepared for the pace of change the tech industry has accelerated at an ever increasing rate. The dangers are greater than ever, but if we can adapt, which we aren't at this point, the opportunities are just as large. Think about it carefully and if you have solutions, opportunities or ways to mitigate the dangers and challenges, post them. This will present the next and greatest wave of opportunities in tech industry and SemiWiki is the best place to start. this discussion. Remember, if the ship sinks, first class goes down to.
"Semis are having an immediate impact of everyone's finances with unintended consequences"
Once in a dinner party a retired scientist, who was an expert in creating new kind of color from the flowers' natural ones, told me that no scientist has bad intention to make something harmful to the society.
What he has said is true. But the unintended consequence sometimes can be very serious and we can't just assume good intention is good enough.
I heard the story of the Radium Girls over forty years ago and was given a watch with the luminescent dial when I was a young kid. Very sad story. I also knew a relative of crew of the plane that photographed one of the atomic bombs dropped on Japan and died of cancer within seven years as did most of the crew. Just like the show salesmen who worked the x-ray foot measuring device. Since they used it all the time, unlike customers, many of them ended up with serious problems. I will be writing on this subject from another angle soon. The speed of disruption and unintended consequences is picking up speed and few if any are really aware of the danger until it's to late. As an investor and researcher, I see a shock wave coming that will make the world as we know it unrecognizable. People must always consider "If the ship sinks, first class goes down to".
In Thomas Midgley's case, he actually tried three times to do something good to the society and to those people around him. But twice his inventions caused enormous damage to the world. And it's sad that his third innovation would end up to kill him on his bed.
Wish Semiwiki can have more discussion on both good and bad consequence of technology.
