Is this credible at all?
2. While Intel has only publicly stated that PTL is scheduled for mass production in 2H25 (keeping this delay within their communicated timeline), such a decision would not be made without significant production issues. This delay will impact Intel's 2H25 revenue, profits, and, most importantly, organizational morale and supply chain trust.
3. Defect density is just one-factor affecting chip yield and mass production capability. The shipment schedules of PC/NB brands, ODMs, and EMS providers serve as critical indicators for assessing the production status of Intel's 18A process.
4. Based on my survey of Intel’s advanced-node consumable shipments, 3Q25 figures show no major changes from current levels, which could support the delay of Intel PTL.
5. In 2H25, Intel will primarily rely on Arrow Lake (ARL) to compete against AMD and Qualcomm. With ARL offering less than 40 TOPs and brands showing limited enthusiasm for Lunar Lake (LNL), Intel appears disadvantaged in the 2H25 AI PC competition.
6. More aggressive brands have planned to adopt the limited Qualification Sample (QS) PTL chips expected in late September for specific high-end models to gain a time-to-market advantage. However, given the limited QS shipments, Intel will benefit minimally.
7. Until Intel successfully ships its own chips manufactured on the 18A, it will struggle to gain the trust of external IC design customers and secure their substantial resource investments for 18A chip development collaboration.
According to my latest industry survey of PC/NB vendors (brands, ODMs, and EMS), Intel has postponed the mass production timeline for Panther Lake (PTL) from early September 2025 to mid-Q4 2025. Several key points warrant attention:
1. Given the typical 2-4 week gap between chip and finished product (PC/NB) shipments, PTL notebooks may not become widely available until 2026, implying that Intel will miss the crucial year-end holiday sales season in 2025 and 2H25 revenue and profit will face downside risks.2. While Intel has only publicly stated that PTL is scheduled for mass production in 2H25 (keeping this delay within their communicated timeline), such a decision would not be made without significant production issues. This delay will impact Intel's 2H25 revenue, profits, and, most importantly, organizational morale and supply chain trust.
3. Defect density is just one-factor affecting chip yield and mass production capability. The shipment schedules of PC/NB brands, ODMs, and EMS providers serve as critical indicators for assessing the production status of Intel's 18A process.
4. Based on my survey of Intel’s advanced-node consumable shipments, 3Q25 figures show no major changes from current levels, which could support the delay of Intel PTL.
5. In 2H25, Intel will primarily rely on Arrow Lake (ARL) to compete against AMD and Qualcomm. With ARL offering less than 40 TOPs and brands showing limited enthusiasm for Lunar Lake (LNL), Intel appears disadvantaged in the 2H25 AI PC competition.
6. More aggressive brands have planned to adopt the limited Qualification Sample (QS) PTL chips expected in late September for specific high-end models to gain a time-to-market advantage. However, given the limited QS shipments, Intel will benefit minimally.
7. Until Intel successfully ships its own chips manufactured on the 18A, it will struggle to gain the trust of external IC design customers and secure their substantial resource investments for 18A chip development collaboration.
