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From the specs it looks like this new lithium air battery could be a game changer for everything from mobile devices to cars. This is just part of the Great Acceleration of all technologies. As the rate that new technologies are increasing we will see a far higher failure rate of individual technologies, but will also see more successful, dramatic breakthroughs that totally change the game. The speed of changing technologies are going to be a major game changer for the unpredictability is and will continue to increase the unpredictability of our social, political and financial structure. Silicon Valley leads the world in these successes and challenges, so should be closely watched.
I've been wondering what happens when Elon's mega factory starts cranking out millions of batteries that at some point are behind the technology curve. Does tech win, or mass production? Can he make a switch quickly enough to mass produce himself off the cliff? I usually bet on tech in the long run, but I'd never bet against Elon.
I think to build a Mega factory geared to a specific family of technologies is very dangerous unless you can't recover your costs in five years on most of your equipment. This battery if it can be brought into production in a few years is a major disruptor not only to other battery and storage makers , but a real threat to utilities and oil companies, especially if coupled with solar which is advancing at a good clip. There are about two other battery technologies developing, but this one looks closer to production and has better specs. The acceleration of technology is starting to disrupt everything far faster than we can adapt. The only way to recoup investment in many things will be like Uber, where increased utilization shortens the time needed to recoup the investment. We have to consider the utilization life span more than the life span of the product.
I've been wondering what happens when Elon's mega factory starts cranking out millions of batteries that at some point are behind the technology curve. Does tech win, or mass production? Can he make a switch quickly enough to mass produce himself off the cliff? I usually bet on tech in the long run, but I'd never bet against Elon.
Once the mega fab is there it does not mean process has to be fixed. The manafacturing process will still evolve and produce better batteries, you can already see that some of the new lithium-XXX and other technologies as marketed to be compatible production processes.
Staf, Many times though, the chemical and casing processes are significantly different that they aren't compatible. For this reason projected economic life of any project has to be given careful consideration. As the pace of tech gains ever increasing speed, so must the financial, business and marketing plans to keep up. It isn't just the tech, it's the whole package. The speed of advancing tech is changing the very way our whole society functions, even politics. Demographics and technology have torn huge wholes in the way government functions. Many of our educational, financial, business structures and social structures have been rendered obsolete. This is how I make my living and even I'm taken by surprise to many times. I'm increasing shifting my strategies to an ever increasing rate of change, my living depends on it.
I have a question for the chemists, which may be more pertinent to electric cars than mobile phones, etc. Given a container of gasoline and a battery that is capable of providing the same amount of energy, in an accident where there may be a sudden energy release is it possible that the battery could be more dangerous because the chemical reaction would not be limited by access to oxygen? The search to achieve higher energy density in batteries is interesting but it may be safer to place more emphasis on means for convenient recharging--at least for larger sources such as in cars.
