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Intel Manufacturing Business Suffers Setback as Broadcom 18A Tests Disappoint

Daniel Nenni said:
By the way, it does not say that Broadcom will not use 18A. PDKs are easily improved and I'm sure it is "maturing" as we speak. I have no doubt 18A will be in HVM next year. I just think TSMC N2 will win the node like N3 did, minus a couple of customers namely Intel and possibly some Broadcom and Microsoft products. TSMC N3 was a 99% market win. TSMC N2 may be 90% but the margins will be better due to price hikes. ;)
Click to expand...

According to Intel CFO, Intel Foundry won't see meaningful revenue until 2027. That means major customers or volume won't be there for Intel Foundry until 2027, 2 to 3 years from now. Will that be too late?

Intel manufacturing business will see 'meaningful' revenue in 2027, CFO says

"Sept 4 (Reuters) - Intel (INTC.O), will begin to generate a "meaningful" amount of revenue from its contract chip manufacturing business in 2027, the company's CFO said at an investor conference on Wednesday. Intel is currently in talks with 12 potential customers that finance chief David...
semiwiki.com
 
hist78 said:
According to Intel CFO, Intel Foundry won't see meaningful revenue until 2027. That means major customers or volume won't be there for Intel Foundry until 2027, 2 to 3 years from now. Will that be too late?

Intel manufacturing business will see 'meaningful' revenue in 2027, CFO says

"Sept 4 (Reuters) - Intel (INTC.O), will begin to generate a "meaningful" amount of revenue from its contract chip manufacturing business in 2027, the company's CFO said at an investor conference on Wednesday. Intel is currently in talks with 12 potential customers that finance chief David...
semiwiki.com
Click to expand...
Seriously????? Meaningful is like ~$1B in revenue. Begin to generate in 2027???? I love Zinsner's honesty (He is my FAVORITE Intel exec) but based on that comment we have to assume he wants Pat and the whole board fired

Are we sure this quote isn't from "the Onion " or " Babylon Bee"
 
Another intel press release about 18A, Defect density D0<0.4, from Ben Sell:

Since releasing the Intel 18A Process Design Kit (PDK) 1.0 in July, we have seen positive response across our ecosystem and are encouraged by what we’re seeing from Intel 18A in the fab. It’s powered on and booting on operating systems, healthy, and yielding well – and we remain on track for launch in 2025.

One of the benefits of our early success on Intel 18A is that it enables us to shift engineering resources from Intel 20A earlier than expected as we near completion of our five-nodes-in-four-years plan. With this decision, the Arrow Lake processor family will be built primarily using external partners and packaged by Intel Foundry.

The journey to Intel 18A has been built on the groundwork laid by Intel 20A.

It enabled us to explore and refine new techniques, materials and transistor architectures that are crucial for advancing Moore's Law. With Intel 20A, we successfully integrated both RibbonFET gate-all-around transistor architecture and PowerVia backside power delivery for the first time, and these learnings have directly informed the first commercial implementation of both technologies in Intel 18A. This points to the iterative nature of semiconductor innovation, and we’re excited to bring these advancements to all Intel Foundry customers.

Focusing resources on Intel 18A also helps us optimize our engineering investments. When we set out to build Intel 20A, we anticipated lessons learned on Intel 20A yield quality would be part of the bridge to Intel 18A. But with current Intel 18A defect density already at D0 <0.40, the economics are right for us to make the transition now.

Ben Sell is vice president of Technology Development at Intel Corporation.
www.intel.com

Continued Momentum for Intel 18A

Progress on lead product designs and process readiness is enabling us to bridge from Intel 20A earlier than we’d planned.
www.intel.com www.intel.com
 
MKWVentures said:
Seriously????? Meaningful is like ~$1B in revenue. Begin to generate in 2027???? I love Zinsner's honesty (He is my FAVORITE Intel exec) but based on that comment we have to assume he wants Pat and the whole board fired

Are we sure this quote isn't from "the Onion " or " Babylon Bee"
Click to expand...
I thought they meant they would be past the breakeven point (some profit) in 2027. But the quote sounds different.
 
hskuo said:
Another intel press release about 18A, Defect density D0<0.4, from Ben Sell:

Since releasing the Intel 18A Process Design Kit (PDK) 1.0 in July, we have seen positive response across our ecosystem and are encouraged by what we’re seeing from Intel 18A in the fab. It’s powered on and booting on operating systems, healthy, and yielding well – and we remain on track for launch in 2025.

One of the benefits of our early success on Intel 18A is that it enables us to shift engineering resources from Intel 20A earlier than expected as we near completion of our five-nodes-in-four-years plan. With this decision, the Arrow Lake processor family will be built primarily using external partners and packaged by Intel Foundry.

The journey to Intel 18A has been built on the groundwork laid by Intel 20A.

It enabled us to explore and refine new techniques, materials and transistor architectures that are crucial for advancing Moore's Law. With Intel 20A, we successfully integrated both RibbonFET gate-all-around transistor architecture and PowerVia backside power delivery for the first time, and these learnings have directly informed the first commercial implementation of both technologies in Intel 18A. This points to the iterative nature of semiconductor innovation, and we’re excited to bring these advancements to all Intel Foundry customers.

Focusing resources on Intel 18A also helps us optimize our engineering investments. When we set out to build Intel 20A, we anticipated lessons learned on Intel 20A yield quality would be part of the bridge to Intel 18A. But with current Intel 18A defect density already at D0 <0.40, the economics are right for us to make the transition now.

Ben Sell is vice president of Technology Development at Intel Corporation.
www.intel.com

Continued Momentum for Intel 18A

Progress on lead product designs and process readiness is enabling us to bridge from Intel 20A earlier than we’d planned.
www.intel.com www.intel.com
Click to expand...

"One of the benefits of our early success on Intel 18A is that it enables us to shift engineering resources from Intel 20A earlier than expected as we near completion of our five-nodes-in-four-years plan. With this decision, the Arrow Lake processor family will be built primarily using external partners and packaged by Intel Foundry."

It's an interesting statement. On one hand Intel is proudly announcing the major progress of Intel 18A. On the other hand, Intel is announcing Arrow Lake desktop processor family will be produced by TSMC, not by the Intel 20A as originally planned.

And Intel said it helps 18A's to move forward faster. Yet Intel CFO just stated today that 18A/Intel Foundry won't see meaningful revenue until 2027!

Who is using Intel 20A anyway?

Is Intel moving to the fab-lite business model?
 
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I can only imagine what the next Intel board meeting will be like. Probably like the one when Intel pivoted from memory to microprocessors.
 
hist78 said:
"One of the benefits of our early success on Intel 18A is that it enables us to shift engineering resources from Intel 20A earlier than expected as we near completion of our five-nodes-in-four-years plan. With this decision, the Arrow Lake processor family will be built primarily using external partners and packaged by Intel Foundry."

It's an interesting statement. On one hand Intel is proudly announcing the major progress of Intel 18A. On the other hand, Intel is announcing Arrow Lake desktop processor family will be produced by TSMC, not by the Intel 20A as originally planned.

And Intel said it helps 18A's to move forward faster. Yet Intel CFO just stated today that 18A/Intel Foundry won't see meaningful revenue until 2027!

Who is using Intel 20A anyway?

Is Intel moving to the fab-lite business model?
Click to expand...
Moore’s Law is Dead (a lot of SemiWiki readers do not like 🤣) made the leak one year ago that Arrow Lake models above i5 will be manufactured by tsmc N3 and below will be manufactured by Intel 20A. So it seems i5 below now will be manufactured by tsmc as well.
IMG_7132.jpeg
 
Maximus said:
Moore’s Law is Dead (a lot of SemiWiki readers do not like 🤣) made the leak one year ago that Arrow Lake models above i5 will be manufactured by tsmc N3 and below will be manufactured by Intel 20A. So it seems i5 below now will be manufactured by tsmc as well.View attachment 2242
Click to expand...

Do we know how long Intel might need to switch its manufacturing from Intel's 20A node to TSMC's N3 for its Arrow Lake processors? 18 months or 2 years? In either case, because Arrow Lake will be released soon, Intel probably switched from 20A to N3 long time ago.
 
hskuo said:
Another intel press release about 18A, Defect density D0<0.4, from Ben Sell:

Since releasing the Intel 18A Process Design Kit (PDK) 1.0 in July, we have seen positive response across our ecosystem and are encouraged by what we’re seeing from Intel 18A in the fab. It’s powered on and booting on operating systems, healthy, and yielding well – and we remain on track for launch in 2025.

One of the benefits of our early success on Intel 18A is that it enables us to shift engineering resources from Intel 20A earlier than expected as we near completion of our five-nodes-in-four-years plan. With this decision, the Arrow Lake processor family will be built primarily using external partners and packaged by Intel Foundry.

The journey to Intel 18A has been built on the groundwork laid by Intel 20A.

It enabled us to explore and refine new techniques, materials and transistor architectures that are crucial for advancing Moore's Law. With Intel 20A, we successfully integrated both RibbonFET gate-all-around transistor architecture and PowerVia backside power delivery for the first time, and these learnings have directly informed the first commercial implementation of both technologies in Intel 18A. This points to the iterative nature of semiconductor innovation, and we’re excited to bring these advancements to all Intel Foundry customers.

Focusing resources on Intel 18A also helps us optimize our engineering investments. When we set out to build Intel 20A, we anticipated lessons learned on Intel 20A yield quality would be part of the bridge to Intel 18A. But with current Intel 18A defect density already at D0 <0.40, the economics are right for us to make the transition now.

Ben Sell is vice president of Technology Development at Intel Corporation.
www.intel.com

Continued Momentum for Intel 18A

Progress on lead product designs and process readiness is enabling us to bridge from Intel 20A earlier than we’d planned.
www.intel.com www.intel.com
Click to expand...
intel delivered so well, they were able to skip a node lol. tsmc will be the first gaa node. they will have the most advanced production fab in the US next year.

im glad intel finally announced the 20a cancellation after 6 months. i was worried i would have wait for cross sections from techinsights to prove arrow lake is not 20a while intel claimed to be on track

if it wasnt for tsmc, intel might not survive.
 
hskuo said:
Another intel press release about 18A, Defect density D0<0.4, from Ben Sell:

Since releasing the Intel 18A Process Design Kit (PDK) 1.0 in July, we have seen positive response across our ecosystem and are encouraged by what we’re seeing from Intel 18A in the fab. It’s powered on and booting on operating systems, healthy, and yielding well – and we remain on track for launch in 2025.

One of the benefits of our early success on Intel 18A is that it enables us to shift engineering resources from Intel 20A earlier than expected as we near completion of our five-nodes-in-four-years plan. With this decision, the Arrow Lake processor family will be built primarily using external partners and packaged by Intel Foundry.

The journey to Intel 18A has been built on the groundwork laid by Intel 20A.

It enabled us to explore and refine new techniques, materials and transistor architectures that are crucial for advancing Moore's Law. With Intel 20A, we successfully integrated both RibbonFET gate-all-around transistor architecture and PowerVia backside power delivery for the first time, and these learnings have directly informed the first commercial implementation of both technologies in Intel 18A. This points to the iterative nature of semiconductor innovation, and we’re excited to bring these advancements to all Intel Foundry customers.

Focusing resources on Intel 18A also helps us optimize our engineering investments. When we set out to build Intel 20A, we anticipated lessons learned on Intel 20A yield quality would be part of the bridge to Intel 18A. But with current Intel 18A defect density already at D0 <0.40, the economics are right for us to make the transition now.

Ben Sell is vice president of Technology Development at Intel Corporation.
www.intel.com

Continued Momentum for Intel 18A

Progress on lead product designs and process readiness is enabling us to bridge from Intel 20A earlier than we’d planned.
www.intel.com www.intel.com
Click to expand...
Does that means all ARL is built using TSMC or some SKU still uses some 20A
 
hist78 said:
Do we know how long Intel might need to switch its manufacturing from Intel's 20A node to TSMC's N3 for its Arrow Lake processors? 18 months or 2 years? In either case, because Arrow Lake will be released soon, Intel probably switched from 20A to N3 long time ago.
Click to expand...
It's ready cause they had 20A 6+8 die for lower end and for ARL-H they had 6+8 N3B die they will just use ARL-H Die on low end biggest advantage of chiplet
 
MKWVentures said:
intel delivered so well, they were able to skip a node lol. tsmc will be the first gaa node. they will have the most advanced production fab in the US next year.

im glad intel finally announced the 20a cancellation after 6 months. i was worried i would have wait for cross sections from techinsights to prove arrow lake is not 20a while intel claimed to be on track

if it wasnt for tsmc, intel might not survive.
Click to expand...
If it was not for TSMC half of the companies wouldn't exist now 🤣 people say Nvidia is AI king I say TSMC is the true king cause you don't have option there
 
hskuo said:
Another intel press release about 18A, Defect density D0<0.4, from Ben Sell:

Since releasing the Intel 18A Process Design Kit (PDK) 1.0 in July, we have seen positive response across our ecosystem and are encouraged by what we’re seeing from Intel 18A in the fab. It’s powered on and booting on operating systems, healthy, and yielding well – and we remain on track for launch in 2025.

One of the benefits of our early success on Intel 18A is that it enables us to shift engineering resources from Intel 20A earlier than expected as we near completion of our five-nodes-in-four-years plan. With this decision, the Arrow Lake processor family will be built primarily using external partners and packaged by Intel Foundry.

The journey to Intel 18A has been built on the groundwork laid by Intel 20A.

It enabled us to explore and refine new techniques, materials and transistor architectures that are crucial for advancing Moore's Law. With Intel 20A, we successfully integrated both RibbonFET gate-all-around transistor architecture and PowerVia backside power delivery for the first time, and these learnings have directly informed the first commercial implementation of both technologies in Intel 18A. This points to the iterative nature of semiconductor innovation, and we’re excited to bring these advancements to all Intel Foundry customers.

Focusing resources on Intel 18A also helps us optimize our engineering investments. When we set out to build Intel 20A, we anticipated lessons learned on Intel 20A yield quality would be part of the bridge to Intel 18A. But with current Intel 18A defect density already at D0 <0.40, the economics are right for us to make the transition now.

Ben Sell is vice president of Technology Development at Intel Corporation.
www.intel.com

Continued Momentum for Intel 18A

Progress on lead product designs and process readiness is enabling us to bridge from Intel 20A earlier than we’d planned.
www.intel.com www.intel.com
Click to expand...
I don't know why intel phrased things the way they did? Intel has never once hid that ARL was not all 20A. Also just logically the choice for the primary process would have needed to have been made in 2019-2020; you know before 5N4Y or even Pat. If 20A was the primary, even if 20A regressed to 10k DD and only 10% of the total performance entitlement then intel couldn't just magically flex 10s of millions of units back to TSMC unless the capacity was bought. And inversely even if 20A was the best thing since sliced bread they are stuck with N3. I've said this over a year ago now, but I will say it again as it applies to intel products just as much as it applies to external. Even if intel was 10 years ahead of TSMC things like intel 4-18A would not be magically used by everyone right away because the volumes and design work were already committed to TSMC years ago. Intel claims that product decisions have been made to gradually move volume back internal. So even if intel is lying, 18A is worse than 10nm, and 18A isn't even PPA competitive with N3; if a product and % of the volume was committed to 18A it is stuck there unless intel wants to spend 3-4 years porting it and can find some spare TSMC capacity without putting down the pre-pay for guaranteed capacity.

Image credit 2022
1725530946074.png


Also I don't know why folks read this and say 20A ARL will not launch. The wording "primarily" is pretty cut and dry that it will exist in some lower volume skus. Considering intel thinks MTL/LNL/ARL are not cost competitive and that they think PNL will be better in this respect. Not necessarily the worst thing that the pipe-cleaner for PNL is not wasting capacity on a DOA chip (as LNL just looks better in every way that isn't cost) that is also not cost effective.
 
nghanayem said:
I don't know why intel phrased things the way they did? Intel has never once hid that ARL was not all 20A. Also just logically the choice for the primary process would have needed to have been made in 2019-2020; you know before 5N4Y or even Pat. If 20A was the primary, even if 20A regressed to 10k DD and only 10% of the total performance entitlement then intel couldn't just magically flex 10s of millions of units back to TSMC unless the capacity was bought. And inversely even if 20A was the best thing since sliced bread they are stuck with N3. I've said this over a year ago now, but I will say it again as it applies to intel products just as much as it applies to external. Even if intel was 10 years ahead of TSMC things like intel 4-18A would not be magically used by everyone right away because the volumes and design work were already committed to TSMC years ago. Intel claims that product decisions have been made to gradually move volume back internal. So even if intel is lying, 18A is worse than 10nm, and 18A isn't even PPA competitive with N3; if a product and % of the volume was committed to 18A it is stuck there unless intel wants to spend 3-4 years porting it and can find some spare TSMC capacity without putting down the pre-pay for guaranteed capacity.

Image credit 2022
View attachment 2244

Also I don't know why folks read this and say 20A ARL will not launch. The wording "primarily" is pretty cut and dry that it will exist in some lower volume skus. Considering intel thinks MTL/LNL/ARL are not cost competitive and that they think PNL will be better in this respect. Not necessarily the worst thing that the pipe-cleaner for PNL is not wasting capacity on a DOA chip (as LNL just looks better in every way that isn't cost) that is also not cost effective.
Click to expand...
It is quite clear that ARL will not have 20A SKU. "Primarily" means that packaging may be done at Intel, etc.

The way Intel says it, all is well, this is a business decision, trying to save some money. But investors are anxious to know the health of 20A/18A: how performant is the final chip, what is the yield of 20A? etc. Now we will have to wait till the end of 2024 to get an idea of these answers, when panther lake is supposedlly in production.
 
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