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China going to war, a loser for all

A

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
War is the last refuge of the incompetent, and I hope the Chinese leadership will realizes war is the worst option. Even the winner in a war suffers and, in most cases, no one wins without terrible costs. It's time for leaders to focus and win/win scenarios as the best alternative. Tech is unifying the world by lowering the costs of communications, production and entertainment. True leaders create win/win scenarios, and I hope leaders on all sides take note. Modern communications and satellite verification can be the ultimate tools of peace if leaders of intelligence and wisdom so choose. I hope leaders on all sides use these tools for productive uses instead of destruction.
 
Unfortunately, what I see in 4 years term is the situation when USA stands with zero allies, and fighting 4 nuclear states alone. A losing proposition.

One does not a lot of grey matter to understand that China is not building its huge fleet for Taiwan. It's ambitions are on the other side of pacific.

And I would not place the blame solely on the last US admin. Beijing's now certain decision to chose the warpath was made in 2014, with each successive administration backing off more, and more from its allies.

What you assure by betraying the allies is not that the crocodile will eat them before you, but that no one will fight for you, when the croc will be on your doorstep as the biggest, and most succulent prey.
 
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warontherocks.com

Exposing China’s Legal Preparations for a Taiwan Invasion - War on the Rocks

China is systematically building a legal framework for a potential invasion of Taiwan. How can Taiwan’s friends, partners, and allies push back? We come
warontherocks.com

Btw. what allies? Europe is dead weight. Do You think that we would help You in Pacific? We don't have personal. We don't have technology (stealth). We don't have production for material support (today i heard that new law can increase cost per 1t CO2 to 300€). So i don't really like these "betrayal narratives". And I think that Xi can see trough that.
 
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Jozo035 said:
And I think that Xi can see trough that.
Click to expand...

I don't think he is ever interested in knowing that. People see what they want to see. People in power, more so.

Even Putin obviously knows that you cannot invade the largest country in Europe with 200k troops. He knew the success is extremely unlikely, yet went forward, because wants, and wishes mean more for powerful people, than limits, and compulsions. That's the universal truth.

If you have a dumb man at the helm of a country with strong executive authority, you can't do anything to prevent him from crashing the ship for his own caprices, other than ending his life. No one can stop Xi from launching the war, bur no one can prevent him from losing it too. No one can stop a king from calling a horse a deer, but no one can make deer out of a horse.

Jozo035 said:
We don't have personal.
Click to expand...

European NATO members both have more active service members, and highly trained reservists than USA.

European military training is just better for an infantry, for them expecting to take a hit, stand ground, and control the situation on their own.
 
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I think, if I were them, Taiwan and Japan, I'd focus on developing nukes, ASAP. That's the ultimate defense deterrence.
If Ukraine still had its nukes, Putin would not dare to invade.
 
Japan is certainly a nuclear state as is Ukraine. As an ex Navy nuke, I can tell you that the path to a nuclear bomb is an easier one than the path to a sustainable nuclear power plant.

I find it difficult to believe that the Ukrainian scientists don't know this too.

Japan has had all the time in the world to secretly create a bomb.

Indeed, we convinced Ukraine to abandon it's nukes. Won't see any county do that again eh?
 
Paul2 said:
I don't think he is ever interested in knowing that. People see what they want to see. People in power, more so.

Even Putin obviously knows that you cannot invade the largest country in Europe with 200k troops. He knew the success is extremely unlikely, yet went forward, because wants, and wishes mean more for powerful people, than limits, and compulsions. That's the universal truth.

If you have a dumb man at the helm of a country with strong executive authority, you can't do anything to prevent him from crashing the ship for his own caprices, other than ending his life. No one can stop Xi from launching the war, bur no one can prevent him from losing it too. No one can stop a king from calling a horse a deer, but no one can make deer out of a horse.



European NATO members both have more active service members, and highly trained reservists than USA.

European military training is just better for an infantry, for them expecting to take a hit, stand ground, and control the situation on their own.
Click to expand...
Russians were very close to take Kiev. They almost took airport, luckily failed on coordination. If they were successful then we would have tens of thousands of russian troops in city plus infamous column of tanks from east.

I think we should take their calculations seriously. Off course it does not mean that their plan won't fail.

Regarding troops, Well technically yes, we had compulsory service until around 15 years ago so number itself might be high but i have seen that training is poor and there are question even in better trained units whether they would be effective...
 
OneEng said:
From a Ukrainian source:

From the US government (as of October 2024):

Pentagon puts Russian casualty toll in Ukraine at 600,000 after new monthly peak

www.legion.org www.legion.org

Do you believe it to be significantly lower?
Click to expand...
The Ukrainian sources, however untrustworthy they are, talk about "losses". They used to claim that those were the numbers of killed Russians. They stopped doing it long ago. They admitted that this was a total number of casualties (including injured). Probably still exaggerated. Be real, if it was the number of killed, then using the rule of thumb, there would be some 2.4 million injured. And yet, the Russians did not even do the mobilization. In turn, that would mean that they got some 3 million volunteers. Are they really that patriotic? Here is a quote from Kyiv Independent that sound more realistic: According to figures released by Kyiv, U.N. statistics, and open-source data published by BBC Russia, the total death toll of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, as well as Ukrainian civilians stands at 148,359 as of Feb. 13.
 
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