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Breaking down computer chip giant's $100 billion expansion in Arizona

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
TSMC expansion would secure state's spot as a national chips leader. Trump tariffs and geopolitics played a role, tech analyst says


TSMC announces new investments in Arizona for chip manufacturing


PHOENIX — Computer chip giant TSMC plans to invest $100 billion in Arizona semiconductor factories over the next four years, securing the state's place as a national leader in chip manufacturing.

RELATED: Multibillion-dollar Taiwan Semiconductor plant sparks North Peoria development boom

The expansion plan would ramp up TSMC's chip production well beyond its current plan for a vast tract of the Sonoran Desert in northwest Phoenix:
-Three new chip-making plants would be built, double the number under an existing $65 billion plan. The first TSMC plant in Phoenix started mass producing advanced chips earlier this year, five years after the world's largest chipmaker announced it would manufacture semiconductors in Arizona.
-TSMC would build two packaging plants -- the final assembly for computer chips -- and a research and development facility.
-The company projects 40,000 construction jobs over four years and "tens of thousands" of semiconductor related jobs.
Here's what you need to know about the expansion:

Super-Charging Development​

TSMC was recruited by Arizona elected officials and economic developers for seven years before committing to building chip fabrication plans, or "fabs" in the state.
The planned expansion could supercharge a multibillion-dollar housing and commercial development boom in the northwest Valley since TSMC's selection of Arizona in 2020 as the site for its first U.S. factories.

The estimated 1,000 Taiwanese workers who moved here to work for TSMC have spawned new communities and businesses in the area.

'Build the Chips Here'​

President Donald Trump announced the expansion plan Monday at the White House, alongside the chief executive officer of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest maker of computer chips.

Trump framed TSMC's plans as a matter of economic and national security.

"We must be able to build the chips we need right here in America and that's exactly what we're doing," Trump said.

TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said the Arizona plants would produce high-demand, cutting edge computer chips for artificial intelligence and smartphones.
Wei said 3,000 people were working in the company's first U.S. fab.

Trump, Biden Ties to TSMC​

Computer chips are essential components of consumer products, cell phones to cars, and military hardware.

During the COVID pandemic, shortages of computer chips made in Asia had exposed the lack of U.S. chip-making factories.

Near the end of Trump's first term, in May 2020, the U.S. Commerce Department lured TSMC to the U.S. in order to expand chip-making capacity.

The CHIPS Act, enacted in 2022 under President Joe Biden, provided grants and loans to TSMC and Intel Corp., which has a manufacturing base in Chandler, to fast track fab construction.

TSMC was awarded up to $6.6 billion in grants and $5 billion in loans under the CHIPS Act. The company has said it received $1.5 billion in funding before the Biden Administration left office.

The company's chief financial officer told CNBC in January that the money would roll in gradually under Trump as the projects hit construction milestones.

TSMC is also eligible for a 25 percent tax credit to defray the multibillion-dollar cost of building or upgrading a semiconductor manufacturing plant.

The CHIPS Act tax credit expires Dec. 31, 2026. Construction must begin before that date to qualify for the credit.

Intel, with its chip manufacturing base in Chandler, was awarded $7.8 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS Act. The company has four fabs in Arizona, with two more under construction

Role of Tariffs, Geo-Politics​

Tech industry analyst G. Dan Hutcheson explained TSMC's paramount place in the chip ecosystem.

"Without TSMC, making an iPhone would not be possible," said Hutcheson, a vice chairman at TechInsights who has tracked the semiconductor industry since the 1970s.

"Without TSMC, Nvidia's fastest AI chips in the whole world would not be possible. It's critical that they're making these chips in the United States."

As much as economics, geopolitics played a role in TSMC's expansion, Hutcheson said. China's designs on taking over Taiwan have raised concerns about conflict in the South China Sea.

"It won't take much to turn it into a hard conflict," Hutcheson said. "If that happens, it could really take TSMC out of the equation and stop their ability to produce. So it's very critical that TSMC expand globally, and America is not the only place they're expanding."

Trump's threat to slap tariffs on chips made in Asia also played a role in the U.S. expansion.

"That was a really big incentive," Hutcheson said.

"If you actually orchestrated the tariffs so that they were on the chips that were inside the iPhone you were buying, or inside the AI server you were buying... that would have really squeezed TSMC. It was an important threat "

Optimistic & Pessimistic Outlooks​

Taiwan-based analyst Ben Thompson, who posts on the Substack "Stratechery," makes the optimistic and pessimistic cases for the TSMC announcement.
Thompson offers a pessimistic forecast that the five Arizona fabs now in the pipeline will go online in two-year intervals in the next 10 years, starting in 2027 and ending in 2035.

 
2020 Fab21 P1 announced with planned 2023 start, reality was 2025. Compared to Taiwan from hole in the ground production less than two years ago. Remember this was with 10K contractors and thousand assignees.

In Taiwan they are building like crazy and can little afford to ship similar number of valuable experience assignees to go to US to start up fast on leading node. The best will stay in Taiwan.

Rumor is that the package for expat is less rich and every promise made to the assignees to localize for an American dream was broken further weakening recruitment and skills necessary for a timely startup.

Sure the locals and assignees have gotten better at build and hookup but will they match the pace and capability of Taiwan, no way?

Agree that at best it is Fab21 P2 in 2027. I predict P2 will be a 2028 n3 node and N2 2030 at best.

Sounds good for the press in the Whitehouse and with POTUS of the multiple phases and hundred billions but the capacity coming on line is one phase per node three to five years later than the volume ramp in Taiwan. Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD will always get its leading volume from Taiwan and it will be the third year product on trailing node that gets to US
 
For the billions of units sold to the rest of the world, getting most production from Taiwan would not incur a trump tax. For those sold in US, get them from TSMC Arizona. More expensive than the parts from Taiwan but less expensive than paying tariffs. What am I missing?
 
For the billions of units sold to the rest of the world, getting most production from Taiwan would not incur a trump tax. For those sold in US, get them from TSMC Arizona. More expensive than the parts from Taiwan but less expensive than paying tariffs. What am I missing?

You don't miss too much. Every party in this arrangement can claim a victory.

What a Wonderful World!
 
It's a big achievement to successfully ramp a new fab up to 20K production. The fact that the initial phase was slow is to expected. The fact that the node is a little behind the leading edge is to be expected. 20K is a small mustard seed. As the parable goes, the tiny mustard seed can produce a large tree, in time.

None of this was pre-ordained. The shortages in the pandemic were severe. TSMC AZ overcame a lot, and have plenty more challenges ahead, but have proven they have what it takes.
 
For the billions of units sold to the rest of the world, getting most production from Taiwan would not incur a trump tax. For those sold in US, get them from TSMC Arizona. More expensive than the parts from Taiwan but less expensive than paying tariffs. What am I missing?

It sounds like genius!!

Everyone pay more
 
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