Semiwiki on LinkedIn Semiwiki on Facebook Semiwiki on Twitter Register / Log in 
Array
(
    [content] => 
    [params] => Array
        (
            [0] => /forum/threads/bill-gates-reminder-on-intel-struggles-one-can-get-annihilated-if-you-miss-a-turn-in-the-market.22013/page-2
        )

    [addOns] => Array
        (
            [DL6/MLTP] => 13
            [Hampel/TimeZoneDebug] => 1000070
            [SV/ChangePostDate] => 2010200
            [SemiWiki/Newsletter] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/WPMenu] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/XPressExtend] => 1000010
            [ThemeHouse/XLink] => 1000970
            [ThemeHouse/XPress] => 1010570
            [XF] => 2021770
            [XFI] => 1050270
        )

    [wordpress] => /var/www/html
)

Bill Gates reminder on Intel struggles: One can get 'annihilated' if you miss a turn in the market

One thing to note is the foundry and hardware business is very mature, and has huge fixed costs.

The software world, amazingly, is still very fluid by comparison and relatively small amounts of money can cause major disruption.

If you run off the fiscal cliff in hardware you may be finished..

Intel definitely missed pivots and Microsoft has been surprisingly flexible, but I am not sure it's even possible for Intel to ever go back to top dog even with an Andy Grove. (Also worth noting Gates may not have done as well as his successors in the cloud and AI eras).
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Early in my career I saw Bill Gates and Andy Grove at a conference. Andy said software will always be the limitation in the compute world. Bill Gates fired back and said hardware will always be the limitation.
Click to expand...
Obvious bias - but only Windows can make my multiGHz, superscalar, multi core processor as responsive as my 1979 Atari 8bit computer running SpartaDOS :).
 
Xebec said:
One thing to note is the foundry and hardware business is very mature, and has huge fixed costs.

The software world, amazingly, is still very fluid by comparison and relatively small amounts of money can cause major disruption.

If you run off the fiscal cliff in hardware you may be finished..

Intel definitely missed pivots and Microsoft has been surprisingly flexible, but I am not sure it's even possible for Intel to ever go back to top dog even with an Andy Grove. (Also worth noting Gates may not have done as well as his successors in the cloud and AI eras).
Click to expand...
It should be noted that for Intel to turn things around, it does not need to reclaim its top position. The company needs to be realistic, focusing first on achieving financial stability.
 
XYang2023 said:
It should be noted that for Intel to turn things around, it does not need to reclaim its top position. The company needs to be realistic, focusing first on achieving financial stability.
Click to expand...
Intel probably has to get rid of its board first, at least, that's the consensus from all the posts here regarding Intel. Who's to say they won't get rid of a new CEO like how they kick Pat in a few years
 
soAsian said:
Intel probably has to get rid of its board first, at least, that's the consensus from all the posts here regarding Intel. Who's to say they won't get rid of a new CEO like how they kick Pat in a few years
Click to expand...
Wasn’t this the BoD that asked Pat what the next CEO should do, he told them and then they asked them if he’d do the job with their full backing and soon forward a few years they kicked him to the curb.

Who’d want that job next without getting rid of that Board first
 
BruceA said:
Wasn’t this the BoD that asked Pat what the next CEO should do, he told them and then they asked them if he’d do the job with their full backing and soon forward a few years they kicked him to the curb.

Who’d want that job next without getting rid of that Board first
Click to expand...

A company without Board of Directors, CEO, and agreed strategies? Will that be a disaster?
 
Xebec said:
One thing to note is the foundry and hardware business is very mature, and has huge fixed costs.

The software world, amazingly, is still very fluid by comparison and relatively small amounts of money can cause major disruption.

If you run off the fiscal cliff in hardware you may be finished..

Intel definitely missed pivots and Microsoft has been surprisingly flexible, but I am not sure it's even possible for Intel to ever go back to top dog even with an Andy Grove. (Also worth noting Gates may not have done as well as his successors in the cloud and AI eras).
Click to expand...
Top dog in what? In Foundry revenue? In process technology? Or what? Yes, Intel Foundry will almost certainly never be as big as TSMC. Even Intel Foundry's stated goals are to be the number 2 fab as measured by external customer revenue, and to reclaim process leadership. These are the right goals. As far a process technology goes, if 18A is a success later this year (and most indications suggest it will), one could argue then they are top dog again. Also it is my understanding Intel is the only fab to have installed and begun doing R&D with an ASML high NA tool, at least it was several months ago. Maybe TSMC has one up and running now, not sure? Anyways, Intel has a jump on using high NA and Intel 14A node will be high NA, likely giving them an even bigger lead in 2026.
 
If 18A is successful at year end, then the five years will have gone as follows:

2020: Intel 14nm++++ (with some 10nm mobile) vs. TSMC N5 - Apple M1
2025: Intel 18A vs. TSMC N3(E?) - Apple M5
(2026: Intel 18A vs TSMC N2)
 
Last edited:
siliconbruh999 said:
And this is getting reflected in margin their designs are just as bad as once their fab was so it wouldn't have done anything and just bleed more money Intel themselves don't want you to buy a TSMC N3B Fabbed product cause it's hampering their margins
Click to expand...
Intel margins are low because of Internal Fab wafers. All current internal Intel Fab'd wafers have negative margins when sold at TSMC Prices.

Pat decided to focus Intel on foundry... he and everyone knew Intel manufacturing was very inefficient and lost billions compared to TSMC. Then the public found this out in 2024 and the stock crashed. Intel will lose over 50 Billion on foundry since Feb 2021 before possibly breaking even.
 
jabo said:
Top dog in what? In Foundry revenue? In process technology? Or what? Yes, Intel Foundry will almost certainly never be as big as TSMC. Even Intel Foundry's stated goals are to be the number 2 fab as measured by external customer revenue, and to reclaim process leadership. These are the right goals. As far a process technology goes, if 18A is a success later this year (and most indications suggest it will), one could argue then they are top dog again. Also it is my understanding Intel is the only fab to have installed and begun doing R&D with an ASML high NA tool, at least it was several months ago. Maybe TSMC has one up and running now, not sure? Anyways, Intel has a jump on using high NA and Intel 14A node will be high NA, likely giving them an even bigger lead in 2026.
Click to expand...
I would focus on what intel is doing. Not what they claim they will do in the future. 18A starts to ramp in 2026. If the foundry is still around, 14A in 2028. There are a few more shoes to drop before the end of 2025 so lets see what ACTUALLY happens
 
jabo said:
So Mr Gates is spreading false information....not saying it is deliberate, but nonetheless.
Click to expand...
Maybe he has a position at Intel. He made similar comments about TSLA while shorting it. Perhaps he is trying to close his short now, which is why he is making such statements publicly.

To be honest, what he said was not impressive:

"Not standard" – It should be noted that Intel is transitioning from an IDM model to a foundry model. Naturally, the older processes do not use industry-standard tools.

"Gelsinger is the person to turn things around" – He should know PG quite well. In my opinion, PG is not a good manager. It was not necessary for him to lead Intel to its current state.
 
MKWVentures said:
Intel margins are low because of Internal Fab wafers. All current internal Intel Fab'd wafers have negative margins when sold at TSMC Prices.

Pat decided to focus Intel on foundry... he and everyone knew Intel manufacturing was very inefficient and lost billions compared to TSMC. Then the public found this out in 2024 and the stock crashed. Intel will lose over 50 Billion on foundry since Feb 2021 before possibly breaking even.
Click to expand...
So he made the right decision to focus on fixing foundry ? Also designs were allowed to run hot lots and infinite tape outs these were like spoiling design Teams
 
XYang2023 said:
Maybe he has a position at Intel. He made similar comments about TSLA while shorting it. Perhaps he is trying to close his short now, which is why he is making such statements publicly.

To be honest, what he said was not impressive:

"Not standard" – It should be noted that Intel is transitioning from an IDM model to a foundry model. Naturally, the older processes do not use industry-standard tools.

"Gelsinger is the person to turn things around" – He should know PG quite well. In my opinion, PG is not a good manager. It was not necessary for him to lead Intel to its current state.
Click to expand...
PatG should have handed the reigns instead of Kranzich and maybe it wouldn't have happened?
 
siliconbruh999 said:
So he made the right decision to focus on fixing foundry ? Also designs were allowed to run hot lots and infinite tape outs these were like spoiling design Teams
Click to expand...
He should not have tried to fix foundry and grow it (I said this in 2021). He should have stuck with the 2020 plan (will be reality in 2028) and outsourced like successful companies do. Nvidia and Apple get better support from TSMC than Intel gets from IFS....
 
MKWVentures said:
He should not have tried to fix foundry and grow it (I said this in 2021). He should have stuck with the 2020 plan (will be reality in 2028) and outsourced like successful companies do. Nvidia and Apple get better support from TSMC than Intel gets from IFS....
Click to expand...
What about geo-conflicts? Can we also assume the current business as usual is unfixable?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top