Apple Car - Does that add into numbers?

[Pawan Fangaria]

Last week, I was looking at IC Insight report about semiconductor unit shipments over last ~40 years. It's impressive compounded average ~9.2% growth every year. The total number of semiconductor devices will exceed one trillion in 2017. The total number includes Opto, Sensor, Discrete (OSD) and IC units. Well, that's the analysis of numbers. Let's look at what Apple says.

After Apple's meteoric rise (market value $700B) on Smartphone numbers, it's a natural conservative outlook of the financial pundits about future growth in numbers. A general rule considers slow % growth after a certain mass of revenue. However, Tim Cook, in line with his predecessor Guru, Steve Jobs, says, "It's nothing to do with the law of large numbers. We are focused on things that produce the numbers."

So, with that in mind, I was looking at Apple's secret work on futuristic car technology. Some say, it's to compete with Google in driverless car segment. Some say it's electric car. Who knows, it may be just car accessories? What it would be will be seen only when it comes out, as far as Apple goes. However, some key points to note - Apple has been hiring engineers with expertise in motors, transmissions, gear box, battery for electric cars, car components etc. They hired ex experienced employees of Ford, Tesla, BMW, GM, and so on. That provides a clear intention of Apple moving into actual car business.

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So, the point is, after all it's a number's game. After iphone numbers maturing, Apple has to find other items to add into numbers.

There are multiple questions here. Can the iMove numbers add into Apple by 2020 for it to keep flying? Can Apple counter the big established icons in the car business? And in case of driverless cars, can it counter the pioneer, Google who is already collaborating with BMW?

Let's say, Apple comes out with a good iMove, then can it add to numbers like the iPhone did?

 

[Pawan Fangaria]

While Apple faces suit from A123 for poaching their top engineers to build battery division, there are others in the car industry facing the dilemma. While some of them want to collaborate with Apple, and already collaborating with Google, they also see it as a big competition coming. The tension is brewing up as Volkswagen and BMW CEOs are speaking up.

Martin Winterkorn, Volkswagen CEO is positive on collaborating with Google and Apple and bringing together digital and mobile world. Ian Robertson, sales chief of BMW sees the entry barrier in car industry reducing and competition rising. He is cautious not to underestimate any competition.

Now that electronics play a big role in adding value to car, the car makers do not want to lose on actual value of car as an automotive. The problem is who retains the prime hold at the end.

What I see is - The car industry again can divide into 2-3 large groups - Google dominates Car, Apple dominated Car and there may be new entrants from car industry itself equipped with new technology for electric, driverless, ...

It would be interesting to watch this space (with mobile and electronics union) post 2020!

 

[Daniel Payne]

Google has way more credibility in their self-driving car project, and they've been very open about their progress along the way, even causing most auto makers to "follow the leader" with programs of their own for self-driving technologies.

The normal Apple tactics are to keep new products quite secret, and then surprise us all with a big splash. There have been just way too many leaks about Apple hiring away top battery talent, so I'll guess that they are not in fact planning an iCar.

 

[Pawan Fangaria]

I agree with you Daniel. So, does it mean that Apple would not pursue the car business just because it leaked, that's to prove their true secretive character ? I guess they may do some car accessories if not full car, but I guess it needs to be full car to compete with Google.