AMD's Lisa Su: No Plans to Change Suppliers at the Moment, but Does Not Rule Out the Possibility of Using Samsung or Intel in the Future

[XYang2023]

October 11 - AMD CEO Lisa Su said at a product launch event on Thursday that there are currently no plans to change the company's suppliers. However, AMD aims for greater geographical diversity in its production and is working to qualify TSMC's new factory in Arizona, USA. Su did not rule out the possibility of using Samsung or Intel in the future, stating that AMD remains open-minded. She noted that the overall chip market is expected to reach $400 billion by 2027, with continued growth in demand for artificial intelligence, and that the industry is still in the early stages of adopting new technologies.

AMD蘇姿豐：目前無計劃更換供應商 不排除未來使用三星電子或英特爾的可能性

10月11日｜AMD首席執行官蘇姿豐週四在產品發佈會上稱，目前沒有計劃更換其供應商，但該公司希望在生產方面具...

www.aastocks.com

 

[BruceA]

Nobody wants to be single source to a source that makes things for all your competitors as well. As much as TSMC is a non competing supplier I am sure if IFS or Samsung Foundry actually delivers advanced node with accurate PDKs and real yield and performance and output why wouldn’t people consider another supplier.

It is hard these days to dual source a single product but splitting lines is a possibility and smart and competition always drives suppliers in pricing or innovation

 

[hist78]

Nobody wants to be single source to a source that makes things for all your competitors as well. As much as TSMC is a non competing supplier I am sure if IFS or Samsung Foundry actually delivers advanced node with accurate PDKs and real yield and performance and output why wouldn’t people consider another supplier.

It is hard these days to dual source a single product but splitting lines is a possibility and smart and competition always drives suppliers in pricing or innovation

"As much as TSMC is a non competing supplier I am sure if IFS or Samsung Foundry actually delivers advanced node with accurate PDKs and real yield and performance and output why wouldn’t people consider another supplier."

In addition to not competing against their own customers, Samsung and Intel need to learn not to attack or ridicule their (even potential) customers, partners, or suppliers in public. Although this is very difficult, it’s akin to asking a tiger to become a vegetarian.

 

[BruceA]

"As much as TSMC is a non competing supplier I am sure if IFS or Samsung Foundry actually delivers advanced node with accurate PDKs and real yield and performance and output why wouldn’t people consider another supplier."

In addition to not competing against their own customers, Samsung and Intel need to learn not to attack or ridicule their (even potential) customers, partners, or suppliers in public. Although this is very difficult, it’s akin to asking a tiger to become a vegetarian.

Agreed, AMD changed after multiple leaders changed.

One can argue that Pat and the resignation of Lip-Bu suggest the carnivore is still that and when you listen to the Intel leaders you see a total lack of on key TSMC trade of being humble and in the shadows and just let your results talk.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

"As much as TSMC is a non competing supplier I am sure if IFS or Samsung Foundry actually delivers advanced node with accurate PDKs and real yield and performance and output why wouldn’t people consider another supplier."

In addition to not competing against their own customers, Samsung and Intel need to learn not to attack or ridicule their (even potential) customers, partners, or suppliers in public. Although this is very difficult, it’s akin to asking a tiger to become a vegetarian.

A very strong statement. The problem is that TSMC is not waiting for Intel or Samsung to catch up. And it is not just process technology and packaging, it is the entire ecosystem that is fast following TSMC. N2 is looking to be another N3 dominant node and the TSMC version of BSPD (SPR) may be yet another differentiator (moat) technology for A16. If TSMC is able to pull it off, which I am pretty confident of, it will be very hard for AMD or Nvidia to switch foundries. And I see no chance of AMD using Intel Foundry, serious bad blood there.

In case you missed this, TSMC 3DBlox Alliance is another moat in the making:

Maximizing 3DIC Design Productivity with 3DBlox: A Look at TSMC’s Progress and Innovations in 2024 - Semiwiki

At the 2024 TSMC OIP Ecosystem Forum, one of the technical talks by TSMC focused on maximizing 3DIC design productivity and rightfully so. With rapid advancements in semiconductor technology, 3DICs have become the next frontier in improving chip performance, energy efficiency, and density...

semiwiki.com

 

[VCT]

It’s not that simple.

If IFS or Samsung Foundry need five significant orders to improve yield and other critical factors.
Would you want to be the first one?

If only two customers place large orders and no one else follows, those first two will bear the risk and potentially suffer.

Why would customers take that risk and be one of the first to place big orders? While their major focus is to compete and win in the AI market? Cost is relatively not as important in advance node in AI computing. Also, IFS or Samsung Foundry can not provide "significant" discount than TSMC price at all.

 

[MKWVentures]

The typical Game plan for changing or second sourcing:

1) Engage with new supplier, string them along
2) Choose small project or subproject for them to do
3) Decide if they can deliver
4) qualify them as second source for larger project
5) wait for main supplier to make a mistake or for the price delta to be 20% or more.


How AMD and Apple converted to TSMC are good specific examples. How Intel moved to TSMC ironically is another example.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

The typical Game plan for changing or second sourcing:

1) Engage with new supplier, string them along
2) Choose small project or subproject for them to do
3) Decide if they can deliver
4) qualify them as second source for larger project
5) wait for main supplier to make a mistake or for the price delta to be 20% or more.


How AMD and Apple converted to TSMC are good specific examples. How Intel moved to TSMC ironically is another example.

I agree but Apple and AMD went all-in with TSMC so it was a different story all together. Apple went from Samsung 28nm to TSMC 20nm for their SoC and has been at TSMC ever since. Apple did use TSMC through vendors for some chips (iPod) prior to that but they did not work with TSMC directly. AMD went from their own fabs to Globalfoundries then to TSMC. Both Apple and AMD are exclusive to TSMC. Lisa Su does say she is open to working with other foundries but that is political BS. What is she supposed to say "We will stay with TSMC forever no matter what they charge"?

I think other companies might throw other foundries a bone to keep TSMC out of the monopoly zone but at N3 and N2 there is only one international airline and once customers fly first class with TSMC they are less likely to fly economy elsewhere, my opinion.

 

[hist78]

I agree but Apple and AMD went all-in with TSMC so it was a different story all together. Apple went from Samsung 28nm to TSMC 20nm for their SoC and has been at TSMC ever since. Apple did use TSMC through vendors for some chips (iPod) prior to that but they did not work with TSMC directly. AMD went from their own fabs to Globalfoundries then to TSMC. Both Apple and AMD are exclusive to TSMC. Lisa Su does say she is open to working with other foundries but that is political BS. What is she supposed to say "We will stay with TSMC forever no matter what they charge"?

I think other companies might throw other foundries a bone to keep TSMC out of the monopoly zone but at N3 and N2 there is only one international airline and once customers fly first class with TSMC they are less likely to fly economy elsewhere, my opinion.

What if other airlines offer first class at cheaper prices? Granted, those airlines should not cancel scheduled flights even before you arrive at the airport.

 

[hist78]

The typical Game plan for changing or second sourcing:

1) Engage with new supplier, string them along
2) Choose small project or subproject for them to do
3) Decide if they can deliver
4) qualify them as second source for larger project
5) wait for main supplier to make a mistake or for the price delta to be 20% or more.


How AMD and Apple converted to TSMC are good specific examples. How Intel moved to TSMC ironically is another example.

Can a potential client, who is also a competitor in certain product lines, use points #1 to #4 not with the intention of placing an order, but simply to distract you and increase your costs?

 

[Daniel Nenni]

What if other airlines offer first class at cheaper prices? Granted, those airlines should not cancel scheduled flights even before you arrive at the airport.

I travelled quite a bit on United and Eva Airlines and let me tell you the first class experience was very different. Eva was amazing. I happened to be on Eva to Taiwan on my birthday and they brought me champagne, a small cake, and a gift. On United you would get an extra bag of pretzels. The Eva flight attendants were also much nicer and more professional. Same thing with TSMC, no one can match their first class.

I do think customers will try and leverage TSMC with other foundry wafer prices but that only works if you go to the other foundries at some point in time. That is a big part of the NOT TSMC market segment I talk about. It will always exist but at 3nm and 2nm it is very small. We will see how A16 goes. Hopefully Samsung and Intel get their fair share.

 

[Jure]

I travelled quite a bit on United and Eva Airlines and let me tell you the first class experience was very different. Eva was amazing. I happened to be on Eva to Taiwan on my birthday and they brought me champagne, a small cake, and a gift. On United you would get an extra bag of pretzels. The Eva flight attendants were also much nicer and more professional. Same thing with TSMC, no one can match their first class.

I do think customers will try and leverage TSMC with other foundry wafer prices but that only works if you go to the other foundries at some point in time. That is a big part of the NOT TSMC market segment I talk about. It will always exist but at 3nm and 2nm it is very small. We will see how A16 goes. Hopefully Samsung and Intel get their fair share.

Nice example. I think Intel is not really interested in being Eva currently. They just want to get a customer or two, so being on United level is ok for them. Foundry is not their main business for now, they will not have huge capacity for external customers, PDK and tools they have are apparently good enough for internal products, so why spend the money on improving PDK, tools,... ? Of course 5-10 years down the line, when they increase capacity, offer more processes, packaging,.. they will have to offer better service, but they can build this gradually, no? The question now is mainly whether are they on the level of United or not -> are they good enough to get a customer or two?

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Nice example. I think Intel is not really interested in being Eva currently. They just want to get a customer or two, so being on United level is ok for them. Foundry is not their main business for now, they will not have huge capacity for external customers, PDK and tools they have are apparently good enough for internal products, so why spend the money on improving PDK, tools,... ? Of course 5-10 years down the line, when they increase capacity, offer more processes, packaging,.. they will have to offer better service, but they can build this gradually, no? The question now is mainly whether are they on the level of United or not -> are they good enough to get a customer or two?

Yes, I think they are customer ready at Intel 3 and 18A. From what I hear IFS is pushing chiplets and packaging which is a strong offering since TSMC will not package other foundry die. I also hear the monopoly card is in play which is a much stronger hand typhoons or China taking out TSMC.

 

[BruceA]

I travelled quite a bit on United and Eva Airlines and let me tell you the first class experience was very different. Eva was amazing. I happened to be on Eva to Taiwan on my birthday and they brought me champagne, a small cake, and a gift. On United you would get an extra bag of pretzels. The Eva flight attendants were also much nicer and more professional. Same thing with TSMC, no one can match their first class.

EVA business tall, young and service focused with a smile and great attitude.

UA old slow and treat you like some second class citizen.

Agree Intel has a lot to change won’t be easy with the current BoD and senior leadership

 

[Tanj]

EVA business tall, young and service focused with a smile and great attitude.

UA old slow and treat you like some second class citizen.

Agree Intel has a lot to change won’t be easy with the current BoD and senior leadership

Eva has been around many decades, long enough to be full grown just like United. Does it force older staff to retire?

I expect Intel to be professional and provide a great service, if their senior management enables it.

 

[BruceA]

Eva has been around many decades, long enough to be full grown just like United. Does it force older staff to retire?

I expect Intel to be professional and provide a great service, if their senior management enables it.

For the Far East carriers all the attendants are youn and healthy. I’d say most of the attendants on American carriers get their international assignments based on seniority.

Remember they are there for your safety and I’d think I’d be helping them off the plane more than they’d be able to help me, attituded and service completely different.

I could say the same thing about then TSMC technicians versus the ones I see in the US, same about the eastern trades versus Americans. It’s not wonder manufacturing moved to the East, LOL. Just look at the unions recently striking dock, Boeing etc. American manufacturing labor is general fat, slow, old and feel entitled

 

[siliconbruh999]

Yes, I think they are customer ready at Intel 3 and 18A. From what I hear IFS is pushing chiplets and packaging which is a strong offering since TSMC will not package other foundry die. I also hear the monopoly card is in play which is a much stronger hand typhoons or China taking out TSMC.

What do you mean by monopoly card TSMC refusing to combine die fabbed in other logic foundries ?

 

[hskuo]

I travelled quite a bit on United and Eva Airlines and let me tell you the first class experience was very different. Eva was amazing. I happened to be on Eva to Taiwan on my birthday and they brought me champagne, a small cake, and a gift. On United you would get an extra bag of pretzels. The Eva flight attendants were also much nicer and more professional. Same thing with TSMC, no one can match their first class.

I do think customers will try and leverage TSMC with other foundry wafer prices but that only works if you go to the other foundries at some point in time. That is a big part of the NOT TSMC market segment I talk about. It will always exist but at 3nm and 2nm it is very small. We will see how A16 goes. Hopefully Samsung and Intel get their fair share.

IMO, the card is on supply side now. Then to switch foundry becomes even more challenging, not just in technology but also in effective capacity available.
Price can be important. But if you have no capacity, then the price means nothing. If my memory was correct, Apple tried to leverage other foundry suppliers in 28nm node when Samsung was still their solo supplier. The outcome was tsmc did not get the order and mad at ....., and then it seemed Samsung got big trouble in 20nm, then 14nm and eventually tsmc earned 100% order from then on.
If we revisit the history, Samsung tried to earn back order and why it failed? It could be a very good lesson learn for IFS and Samsung now.

 

[MKWVentures]

Can a potential client, who is also a competitor in certain product lines, use points #1 to #4 not with the intention of placing an order, but simply to distract you and increase your costs?

If a company gets distracted, that it there fault. There are ways to prevent this.

I do not know of any case where a company orders to distract the supplier... Its an Urban Legend in my experience.

 

[MKWVentures]

I agree but Apple and AMD went all-in with TSMC so it was a different story all together. Apple went from Samsung 28nm to TSMC 20nm for their SoC and has been at TSMC ever since. Apple did use TSMC through vendors for some chips (iPod) prior to that but they did not work with TSMC directly. AMD went from their own fabs to Globalfoundries then to TSMC. Both Apple and AMD are exclusive to TSMC. Lisa Su does say she is open to working with other foundries but that is political BS. What is she supposed to say "We will stay with TSMC forever no matter what they charge"?

I think other companies might throw other foundries a bone to keep TSMC out of the monopoly zone but at N3 and N2 there is only one international airline and once customers fly first class with TSMC they are less likely to fly economy elsewhere, my opinion.

Apple did not go all in on one generation. They had the mother of all stealth operations going to demonstrate TSMC capability for 2 years.