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All empires, political and business, have a lifespan, it's just a matter of how long. Advanced technology has shown the power to leverage across geographical and political spectrums far better than in the past. This applies to everything from the container ship, aircraft and communications. 3D printing is next with the ability to transport objects so to speak through the wire compressing time and space in ways never imagined. Apple has truly changed things and in the future someone will change them again. Recent history shows the changes are coming at an accelerating rate with sharper peaks and valleys. The diversity and acceleration of technology and social/political changes are now beyond comprehension, presenting ever more opportunities and dangers. The largest danger is a split society, for if there are to many extremes on the number of winners and losers turmoil inevitably results with dire consequences. The difference now is that thanks to an array of technologies the world is truly linked as one with no isolated areas.
Artificial intelligence and the ability to vastly increase lifespan are the two next great challenges/opportunities/dangers that are just over the horizon. Both will be unevenly distributed and used, presenting whole new topics for discussion. Technology without conscious will present the greatest dangers of all. SemiWiki, among others, is where this discussion should start. They both will have an impact far beyond even nuclear weapons for we will have to learn how to handle technologies that will soon touch everyone in minor and major ways.
I have no doubt others will have significant views and thoughts to contribute to this thread.
Empires expand at the expense of others. Then the others gang up and the empire collapses. Also the empire gets so big it becomes sloppy and unfocused. IBM of the 80's is the classic case.
Apple and Google seem to have tackled the all other issue by creating opportunities for many to prosper in their ecosystems. The development of the ecosystem also allows for the outsourcing of important tasks to apps developers so that the ecosystem continues to grow w/o gobbling up scarce resources. Good strategy and execution...... so far.
A great subject! The first thing I remember is the bestseller Futureshock! The peaks and valleys remind me Matrix, but instead of just one Zion, I see more Zions spread across space - some contrasting economic disparities while some digital divide. With BrainComputerInterface in place, coupled with upcoming products like Glass (Ofcourse Glass isnt 'dead' and will come with a new vigor), Holocast, some of those valleys would be inhabited by Humanoids! Instead of segmenting market based on the product, the communities might be segmented based on availability of such amazing products! In such situation, I wish the "tunneling of 'resources'" does happen in some way to avoid creation of "black-holes" in a single world!
I forget where I read it but I liked the use of horses as an analogy for low-skilled workers. Until early in the 20th century there had always been a huge demand for horses peaking at around 21M in 1915. Then the internal combustion engine came along. It is not that there was no demand for horses after that, there were still jobs horses could do at some price. The trouble was that at that price it didn't cover the cost of their feed. Raising the minimum wage too high is like horses feed getting more expensive. There are always low skilled jobs that can be done at some price but if it doesn't cover the cost of their "feed" then alternatives (touch-screens, AI etc) will be used. I expect all fast food restaurants to look more like Specialty's soon, with a dozen iPads (or equivalent) for ordering and maybe one human for people who can't cope with touchscreens.
Apple owns the mobile ecosystem, just wait until the iWatch, Apple Pay, and the wellness applications get traction. Apple will certainly give the Wintel dynasty a good run for the money.
I had a class in artificial intelligence back in my undergraduate days but nothing like what they have now. I do remember the professor making some grand predictions about robots taking over the world. I have heard the term machine learning used quite a bit during my recent travels with EDA software developers. Given the compressed schedules and complexities involved with semiconductor design and manufacturing I'm not surprised at all. Mobile devices already have machine learning and it will increase for sure. Security: Our phones should know who we are as soon as we pick them up, right? Movement, gestures, voice, location, etc... Right?
I forget where I read it but I liked the use of horses as an analogy for low-skilled workers. Until early in the 20th century there had always been a huge demand for horses peaking at around 21M in 1915. Then the internal combustion engine came along. It is not that there was no demand for horses after that, there were still jobs horses could do at some price. The trouble was that at that price it didn't cover the cost of their feed. Raising the minimum wage too high is like horses feed getting more expensive. There are always low skilled jobs that can be done at some price but if it doesn't cover the cost of their "feed" then alternatives (touch-screens, AI etc) will be used. I expect all fast food restaurants to look more like Specialty's soon, with a dozen iPads (or equivalent) for ordering and maybe one human for people who can't cope with touchscreens.
Paul, you are dead on. Automation is going to extend even to the highly educated. Vinod Khosla feels some of the latest super computers could replace doctors diagnostics and I agree. We just need a technician to hook and scan someone and with big data and huge data bases that wearable devices generate a good program will easily out diagnose a doctor. I have written over the years on the vast increase of computer power, storage, communications, instrumentation, educated people in quality and quantity. Automation of Everything is the next step. Many skill sets at all levels will be eliminated, just like 3D printing will replace tool and die makers and super computers doctors for diagnostics. Hawking, Gates and Musk all feel AI has the potential to be very dangerous. To build a control collar for people that would have a computer as an administrator is easily in the realm of current technology and what could be in just a few years is literally frightening.
Many times we are like children playing with powers we don't comprehend.
