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At what rate do the readers feel robotics and automation may replace a significant portion of labor in a modern economy? How much do readers feel it will replace what percentage of manual and professional labor needs and on what timeline. This has been taking place for years, but with AI/ML the changes could accelerate in both breadth and depth. Any views, opinions and timelines on this would be appreciated.
I would love to see Real Estate agents replaced by AI, with commissions lowered significantly. (That would help keep housing prices more affordable long term).
That said I think we'll see slow and gradual (over ~2 generations / 40 years) replacement of (a significant amount of) labor with AI, not this sudden overnight thing.
Some people/governments will resist the replacements, (some/many) consumers will be willing to pay a premium for a while for "human made stuff", things will go wrong with AI leading to a public scare and slowdown, etc.
On the "accelerated" side of the argument - I could see a country like China embracing AI more quickly than the US due to rapidly aging demographics. That may push the US to move forward there. The EU could use the labor help more than most but the EU beaurcracy will ensure slowness.
Automation is hundreds of years old. Some jobs are automated away while new jobs are created. Over time and in aggregate you expect automation to increase labor productivity, not eliminate labor entirely. I don't think AI will be different in this regard.
We will see a major shift in Tech companies labor split first, AI will have an impactful effect on jobs in these companies .... pretty quickly, its happening now, but in the next 1-3 years. As for the broader labor force, it will be a generation thereabouts ....
