– Lam put up good numbers but H2 outlook was flat with unknown 2026
– China remains high & exposed at 35% of biz while US is a measly 6%
– Unclear if this is peak, pause, digestion, technology or normal cycle
– Coupled with ASML soft outlook & stock run ups means profit taking
Tag: semiconductor advisors
Musk’s new job as Samsung Fab Manager – Can he disrupt chip making? Intel outside
– Musk chip lifeline to Samsung comes with interesting strings attached
– Musk chose Samsung over Intel-What does that say about Intel?
– Musk will hold sway over Samsung much as Apple/NVDA over TSMC
– Will Musk do a “DOGE” on chip tool makers? How much influence?
Tesla/Samsung $16.5B deal
… Read MoreCHIPS Act dies because employees are fired – NIST CHIPS people are probationary
– NIST to lose 100’s of mainly CHIPS Act people
– If no people are left to administer CHIPS Act it dies by default
– Following USAID play book to kill an unwanted program
– Using the “probationary” clause as excuse to fire recent CHIPS hires
Trump will kill CHIPS Act by gutting NIST employees
… Read MoreKLAC Good QTR with AI and HBM drive leading edge and China is Okay
– KLA put up a good qtr & year with consistent growth
– AI & HBM are the main drivers of leading edge which helps KLA
– China slowing but not too fast, Outlook OK but not super
– Wafer inspection is huge but reticle inspection continues to slip
KLA reports good quarter and OK outlook
KLA reported revenues… Read More
KLAC – OK Qtr/Guide – Slow Growth – 2025 Leading Edge Offset by China – Mask Mash
- KLA put up an OK Quarter & Guide with modest growth & outlook
- 2025 remains slow growth as leading edge offset by China slowing
- China sanctions remain a “great unknown”- impact unclear
- Reticle biz getting squeezed from both high & low ends
OK quarter with slight beat as always- Guide is OK as well
KLA reported… Read More
LRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down
- Lam put in good quarter with flattish guide- still a slow recovery
- This is better than worst case fears of order drop like ASML
- China spend is slowing but tech spending increase offsets
- Relief rally as the market was braced for bad news and got OK news
Lam has OK, slightly better than in line quarter with OK guide….
It coulda been… Read More
KLAC- Past bottom of cycle- up from here- early positive signs-packaging upside
– KLA reported a good QTR but more importantly passing the bottom
– Lead times mean KLA gets orders early in up cycle-just behind ASML
– Potential upside in upcycle as packaging needs more process control
– 2024 2nd half weighted with stronger recovery likely in 2025
A solid quarter as expected with good
… Read MoreASML- Soft revenues & Orders – But…China 49% – Memory Improving
ASML- better EPS but weaker revenues- 2024 recovery on track
China jumps 10% to 49%- Memory looking better @59% of orders
Order lumpiness increases with ASP- EUV will be up-DUV down
“Passing Bottom” of what has been a long down cycle
Weak revenues & orders but OK EPS
Reported revenue was Euro5.3B and EPS of Euro3.11… Read More
KLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog
– KLAC reported an OK QTR & flat guide-waiting for 2025 recovery?
– China exposure remains both risk & savior & big in backlog
– Wafer inspect strong- Patterning on long slide- PCB biz for sale
– Some bright spots but memory still weak- Foundry/Logic OK
Bumping along the bottom of the cycle
… Read MoreASML – Strong order start on long road to 2025 recovery – 24 flat vs 23 – EUV shines
– ASML orders more than triple sequentially- Utilization increases
– Management remains conservative with flat revenues 2024 vs 2023
– Recovery will be slow, targeting 2025- Long & weak cyclical bottom
– Litho orders are leading indicator of future wider recovery