ASML Wavering- Supports our Concern of Second Leg Down for Semis- False Bottom

ASML Wavering- Supports our Concern of Second Leg Down for Semis- False Bottom
by Robert Maire on 04-21-2023 at 8:00 am

Semiconductor False Bottom

-ASML weakness is evidence of deeper chip down cycle
-When ASML sneezes other chip equip makers catch a cold
-Will backlog last long enough? Will EUV demand hold up?
-“Unthinkable” event, litho cancelations, could shock industry

ASML has in line quarter but alarm bells ring on wavering outlook

ASML reported Euro6.7B… Read More


Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem

Semiconductor China Syndrome Meltdown and Mayhem
by Robert Maire on 10-13-2022 at 6:00 am

The China Syndrome

-Commerce Dept drops a 100 page nuke on the Semi industry
-Many words but not a lot of clarity on exact impact
-Implementation & interpretation will be key to quantify impact
-It’s all bad, just a question of how bad

China is the industry’s biggest customer

We all know that China uses most of the world’s semiconductors… Read More


ASML Business is so Great it Looks Bad

ASML Business is so Great it Looks Bad
by Robert Maire on 07-24-2022 at 6:00 am

ASML Systems 2022

-ASML reports strong quarter- Orders up 20% Qtr/Qtr
-Customers rush delivery which delays revenue recognition
-Chip makers need hard to get litho tools most of all
-Warning on concerns about consumer chip demand

Good numbers that are even better in reality

ASML reported revenues of Euro5.4B and EPS of Euro3.54. Most importantly… Read More


Semiconductors – Limiting Factors; Supply Chain & Talent- Will Limit Stock Upside

Semiconductors – Limiting Factors; Supply Chain & Talent- Will Limit Stock Upside
by Robert Maire on 10-07-2021 at 6:00 am

Semiconductor shortage

– If chips are “as good as it gets” so are the stock prices
– Are we at a near term ceiling that stocks have bounced off of?
– If growth slows do valuations also slow?
– Are we in a holding pattern waiting for a down cycle?

Second order derivative investing

As we have said many times in the past, investors… Read More