More Headwinds-CHIPS Act Chop?- Chip Equip Re-Shore? Orders Canceled & Fab Delay

More Headwinds-CHIPS Act Chop?- Chip Equip Re-Shore? Orders Canceled & Fab Delay
by Robert Maire on 11-15-2024 at 8:00 am

CHIPS Act Semiconductor USA

– CHIPS Act more likely to be maimed & cut than outright killed
– Will Legislators reverse flow of equipment to Reshore from Offshore?
– Recent order cuts, Fab Delay & SMIC comments are all negative
– News flow for semi equipment all bad in front of AMAT

CHIPS Act Chops likely to occur under new administration
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ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake

ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
by Robert Maire on 10-16-2024 at 10:00 am

ASML 2024 Downturn
  • Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
  • Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
  • China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
  • AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
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AMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery

AMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery
by Robert Maire on 08-19-2024 at 6:00 am

One Trick Pony
  • AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
  • China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
  • AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
  • Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y

AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More


Intel’s Death Spiral Took Another Turn

Intel’s Death Spiral Took Another Turn
by Claus Aasholm on 08-04-2024 at 8:00 am

Intel Death Sprial 2024

Does this justify the widespread Intel bashing?
The latest Intel earnings release was another sharp and deeper turn into the company’s death spiral. On the surface, it is just a whole load of bad news, and the web has been vibrating with Intel bashing since the release.

So what are the facts?
From a revenue perspective, Intel was inside… Read More


LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery

LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery
by Robert Maire on 08-04-2024 at 6:00 am

Chips Act 2024
  • Lam reported good numbers with slightly soft guide
  • Investors are figuring out the up cycle will be slower than thought
  • Looks like AMAT won’t get CHIPS act money for Epic facility
  • Steady improvement but stocks still ahead of themselves-Correction?
Lam reports good numbers (as usual) but guide not good enough

Lam reported… Read More


LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?

LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?
by Robert Maire on 04-29-2024 at 8:00 am

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– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery

Another Flat Quarter &
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SPIE Let there be Light! High NA Kickoff! Samsung Slows? “Rapid” Decline?

SPIE Let there be Light! High NA Kickoff! Samsung Slows? “Rapid” Decline?
by Robert Maire on 03-03-2024 at 6:00 am

High NA EUV 2024

– High NA EUV’s coming out party – “Dawn” of the Angstrom Era
– Well attended, positive vibes, not much new but good progress
– Concerns about Samsung slowing spend while Intel accelerates
– KLA reticle inspection quandary – Risky business in China

SPIE was a High-NA
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AMAT – Flattish QTR Flattish Guide – Improving 2024 – Memory and Logic up, ICAPs Down

AMAT – Flattish QTR Flattish Guide – Improving 2024 – Memory and Logic up, ICAPs Down
by Robert Maire on 02-19-2024 at 10:00 am

HBM SIP

– AMAT slightly better than expected, flat & guides flat but > expected
– Expects better 2024- Systems flat, service up, display down
– China risk remains high at 45%- $200M Sculpta expected in 2024
– HBM 5% of industry but not a lot of tool sales- but high growth

Still bumping along with flattish Read More


KLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog

KLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog
by Robert Maire on 01-30-2024 at 6:00 am

KLAC Foundry Logic

– KLAC reported an OK QTR & flat guide-waiting for 2025 recovery?
– China exposure remains both risk & savior & big in backlog
– Wafer inspect strong- Patterning on long slide- PCB biz for sale
– Some bright spots but memory still weak- Foundry/Logic OK

Bumping along the bottom of the cycle
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AMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter

AMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter
by Robert Maire on 11-19-2023 at 8:00 pm

Criminal Investigation

– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook

Reuters broke the news on the day of earnings
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