– CHIPS Act more likely to be maimed & cut than outright killed
– Will Legislators reverse flow of equipment to Reshore from Offshore?
– Recent order cuts, Fab Delay & SMIC comments are all negative
– News flow for semi equipment all bad in front of AMAT
Tag: amat
ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
- Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
- Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
- China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
- AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
… Read MoreAMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery
- AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
- China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
- AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
- Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y
AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More
Intel’s Death Spiral Took Another Turn
Does this justify the widespread Intel bashing?
The latest Intel earnings release was another sharp and deeper turn into the company’s death spiral. On the surface, it is just a whole load of bad news, and the web has been vibrating with Intel bashing since the release.
So what are the facts?
From a revenue perspective, Intel was inside… Read More
LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery
- Lam reported good numbers with slightly soft guide
- Investors are figuring out the up cycle will be slower than thought
- Looks like AMAT won’t get CHIPS act money for Epic facility
- Steady improvement but stocks still ahead of themselves-Correction?
Lam reports good numbers (as usual) but guide not good enough
Lam reported… Read More
LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?
– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery
Another Flat Quarter &
… Read MoreSPIE Let there be Light! High NA Kickoff! Samsung Slows? “Rapid” Decline?
– High NA EUV’s coming out party – “Dawn” of the Angstrom Era
– Well attended, positive vibes, not much new but good progress
– Concerns about Samsung slowing spend while Intel accelerates
– KLA reticle inspection quandary – Risky business in China
SPIE was a High-NA
… Read MoreAMAT – Flattish QTR Flattish Guide – Improving 2024 – Memory and Logic up, ICAPs Down
– AMAT slightly better than expected, flat & guides flat but > expected
– Expects better 2024- Systems flat, service up, display down
– China risk remains high at 45%- $200M Sculpta expected in 2024
– HBM 5% of industry but not a lot of tool sales- but high growth
Still bumping along with flattish … Read More
KLAC- OK Quarter & flat guide- Hopefully 2025 recovery- Big China % & Backlog
– KLAC reported an OK QTR & flat guide-waiting for 2025 recovery?
– China exposure remains both risk & savior & big in backlog
– Wafer inspect strong- Patterning on long slide- PCB biz for sale
– Some bright spots but memory still weak- Foundry/Logic OK
Bumping along the bottom of the cycle
… Read MoreAMAT- Facing Criminal Charges for China Exports – Overshadows OK Quarter
– News that AMAT facing criminal charges for violating China sanctions
– Sounds like Ion implant tools sent to SMIC in China via South Korea
– Criminal probe goes back to shipments starting in 2021 & 2022
– Overshadows an otherwise OK quarter and outlook