– Lam put up good numbers but H2 outlook was flat with unknown 2026
– China remains high & exposed at 35% of biz while US is a measly 6%
– Unclear if this is peak, pause, digestion, technology or normal cycle
– Coupled with ASML soft outlook & stock run ups means profit taking
Tag: amat
AMAT- In line QTR – poor guide as China Chops hit home- China mkt share loss?
- QTR was just “in-line” but guide was below expectations
- We think its not just China export rules but share loss as well
- Leading edge is strong but obviously not enough to offset China
- Memory remains weak-Foundry (TSMC) is the primary driver
Headwinds slow growth to flat
Applied reported $7.166B in revenues and Non … Read More
KLAC Good QTR with AI and HBM drive leading edge and China is Okay
– KLA put up a good qtr & year with consistent growth
– AI & HBM are the main drivers of leading edge which helps KLA
– China slowing but not too fast, Outlook OK but not super
– Wafer inspection is huge but reticle inspection continues to slip
KLA reports good quarter and OK outlook
KLA reported revenues… Read More
AMAT has OK Qtr but Mixed Outlook Means Weaker 2025 – China & Delays & CHIPS Act?
– AMAT has OK QTR but outlook below expectations as 2025 weakens
– Strength in AI cannot offset weakness in the rest of the market
– Increasing headwinds going into 2025 dampen overall outlook
– Weakness combined with regulatory uncertainty reduce valuations
Quarter and year are just OK but outlook is
… Read MoreMore Headwinds – CHIPS Act Chop? – Chip Equip Re-Shore? Orders Canceled & Fab Delay
– CHIPS Act more likely to be maimed & cut than outright killed
– Will Legislators reverse flow of equipment to Reshore from Offshore?
– Recent order cuts, Fab Delay & SMIC comments are all negative
– News flow for semi equipment all bad in front of AMAT
CHIPS Act Chops likely to occur under new administration
… Read MoreASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
- Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
- Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
- China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
- AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
… Read MoreAMAT Underwhelms- China & GM & ICAP Headwinds- AI is only Driver- Slow Recovery
- AMAT reports good but underwhelming quarter
- China slowing creates revenue & GM headwinds- ICAPs weak
- AI remains the one and only bright spot in both foundry & memory
- Cyclical recovery remains slow – Single digit Y/Y growth
OK quarter – still slow growing, revs up only 5% Y/Y
AMAT came in at revenues of $6.78B… Read More
Intel’s Death Spiral Took Another Turn
Does this justify the widespread Intel bashing?
The latest Intel earnings release was another sharp and deeper turn into the company’s death spiral. On the surface, it is just a whole load of bad news, and the web has been vibrating with Intel bashing since the release.
So what are the facts?
From a revenue perspective, Intel was inside… Read More
LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery
- Lam reported good numbers with slightly soft guide
- Investors are figuring out the up cycle will be slower than thought
- Looks like AMAT won’t get CHIPS act money for Epic facility
- Steady improvement but stocks still ahead of themselves-Correction?
Lam reports good numbers (as usual) but guide not good enough
Lam reported… Read More
LRCX- Mediocre, flattish, long, U shaped bottom- No recovery in sight yet-2025?
– Lam reports another flat quarter & guide- No recovery in sight yet
– Seems like no expectation of recovery until 2025- Mixed results
– DRAM good- NAND weak- Foundry/Logic mixed-Mature weakening
– Clearly disappointing to investors & stock hoping for a chip recovery