U.S. Electronics Production Growing

U.S. electronics production has been on an accelerating growth trend over the last ten months. Three-month average change versus a year ago (3/12 change) has increased from 0.4% in October 2024 to 6.2% in August 2025. Japan’s 3/12 change has been positive since November 2024, but has been decelerating for most of 2025, reaching 1.1% in August. The 27 countries of the European Union (EU 27) have mostly experienced negative 3/12 change, with July 2025 at -1.8%. UK 3/12 change turned positive in July and reached 1.8% in August.

The accelerating growth in U.S. electronics production is partially due to U.S. and foreign companies shifting manufacturing to the U.S. from other countries. The shift is primarily due to the Trump administration’s tariffs – both implemented and threatened. However, the manufacturing shift has not led to increased employment in electronics manufacturing. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. employment in electronics manufacturing has declined from 1.04 million jobs in January 2024 to 1.001 million jobs in August 2025. August is the latest available month due to the government shutdown. In the last ten years, employment has been in a narrow range of 1.001 million to 1.062 million jobs.

Electronics production in key Asian countries has been volatile but generally growing over the last two years. The shift of electronics manufacturing to the U.S. has not had any noticeable impact on China. China electronics production has shown steady growth with 3/12 change in the range of 10% to 13% since January 2024. China’s 3/12 change in September 2025 was 10.7%. South Korea’s 3/12 change has moderated to 7.4% in July 2025 from 17% in May. Malaysia and Vietnam had similar trends in the last six months, with 3/12 change moderating from the 8% to 10% range in March through May 2025 to the 5% to 6% range in June through August. India has been volatile, with 3/12 change peaking at 15% in April 2025 and falling to zero in July. India’s August 3/12 change was 1.9%.

As noted in our June 2025 newsletter, U.S. imports of smartphones have dropped significantly beginning in April 2025. The Trump administration stated in April 2025 that smartphones were currently exempt from tariffs but would be subject to tariffs in “a month or two.” Six months later, no smartphone tariffs have been announced. Imports remained low based on the latest data available through July. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, data for August in not available. However, China’s export data is available through September 2025. Apparently, China has a functioning government. In September, China’s exports of smartphones to the U.S. increased sharply to 2.26 million units from 1.02 million units in August, an increase of 121%. The average unit price (AUP) of these smartphones almost doubled from $702 in August to $1,387 in September. These increases coincide with Apple’s introduction of its iPhone 17 models in September 2025. Apple and other smartphone companies have apparently been limiting imports to the U.S. due to the tariff threat, but increased imports in September to support the release of new models.

The Trump administration’s tariff policy may have contributed to increased U.S. electronics production, but it has not led to new jobs in the industry. The current tariffs and potential tariffs continue to cause uncertainty in the U.S. and global electronics industry.

Bill Jewell
Semiconductor Intelligence, LLC
billjewell@sc-iq.com