The global semiconductor market in 1Q 2024 was $137.7 billion, according to WSTS. 1Q 2024 was down 5.7% from 4Q 2023 and up 15.2% from a year ago. The first quarter of the year is typically down seasonally from the fourth quarter of the prior year. However, the 1Q 2024 decline of 5.7% was worse than expected.
Major semiconductor companies had mixed results for 1Q 2024. The revenue change from 4Q 2023 to 1Q 2024 ranged from a 23% increase reported by Micron Technology to a 19% decline from STMicroelectronics. Five companies had quarter-to-quarter revenue growth while nine companies had decreases. Nvidia continued as the largest semiconductor company with $26 billion in revenue. The combined revenue growth of the top companies was 2%, with memory companies up 12% and non-memory companies down 2%.
Companies provided varied revenue guidance for 2Q 2024. Micron is projecting continued strong memory demand, with 2Q 2024 revenues expected to grow 13% from 1Q 2024. Seven other companies are anticipating revenue increases in 2Q 2024. Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited as a major growth driver by Nvidia, Samsung, and SK Hynix. NXP Semiconductors expects 2Q 2024 to be flat with 1Q 2024. Three companies are expecting declines. Qualcomm and MediaTek see seasonal drops in smartphones. STMicroelectronics’ revenue guidance is the lowest with a 7.6% decline due to excess inventory in the industrial sector. The combined 2Q 2024 outlook for the twelve companies providing guidance is 3% growth.
Recent estimates for the growth rate of the year 2024 semiconductor market have a wide range from 4.9% to 28%. However, forecasts made since the WSTS first quarter data was released in early May differ significantly from earlier forecasts. Projections released in February and March range from 17% from DigiTimes to 28% from UBS. Based on the 1Q 2024 WSTS data, Future Horizons lowered their 2024 projection from 16% in January to 4.9% in May. Other May forecasts are 10% from the Cowan LRA Model and 12% from TECHCET. We at Semiconductor Intelligence (SC-IQ) have lowered our 2024 projected growth from 18% in February to 11% in May.
Our April 2024 newsletter Electronics Turns Positive stated 2024 should show solid but not exceptional growth in the key end markets of PCs and smartphones. Some markets which showed growth in the last couple of years – such as automotive and industrial – appear to be weakening. AI is an emerging growth driver. The global economy is expected to show steady growth of 3.2% for the next two years, according to the IMF. These factors should support healthy semiconductor market growth in 2024 and into 2025. However, earlier projections of growth of 20% or higher in 2024 are not likely to prove true.
Semiconductor Intelligence is a consulting firm providing market analysis, market insights and company analysis for anyone involved in the semiconductor industry – manufacturers, designers, foundries, suppliers, users or investors. Please contact me if you would like further information.
Bill Jewell
Semiconductor Intelligence, LLC
billjewell@sc-iq.com
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