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Malcolm made a good point about the current automotive trend. Millions of lines of code will be running on these cars, like our phones and laptops. But, unlike our phones and laptops, cars have a useful life of 10-20 years. Will some of these car companies even be in business in 10-20 years? Who is going to maintain and update the software?
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It's an excellent question. While this is arguably a solved problem for military equipment (at least we hope it is - the kit is designed to last longer than cars and costs a lot more as a result), I'm not sure consumers are prepared to pay for this.
In general, in spite of claims that the automotive industry is becoming "greener", I'm rather sceptical. The more technology we pile into cars, the greater the chance that they become write-offs earlier in their lifecycle. I recently (and reluctantly) had to scrap a car I'd owned for almost 16 years (and 190K miles). 95% of the car was still sound and reliable - but the few parts that needed fixing cost more than the car. There's no way you'll get 16 years out of anything you buy now - there are just too many complex and expensive components to go wrong.
I had my other car develop a dashboard warning light fault a couple of years ago. It proved impossible even for the dealer to diagnose the fault - whether it was due to a fault ABS control unit, a false positive warning light or something else. They ended up ordering two new modules (each around $1000) and took over 4 weeks to fix the issue by trial and error. At a main dealer. All due to poorly engineered diagnostics. Partly hardware, partly software.
Don't get me wrong - I think automotive companies and engineers have done amazing things over the past 40 years. Fuel economy now (for those of us who still use it) is almost double what it was 40 years ago. Engines are super reliable and start every time. But the industry is built largely for cost engineering. In fact, I came across a fascinating video a few weeks ago which explained that modern CAD tools and simulations had made it possible for car companies to design components with far more precise lifetimes (the warranty expiry apparently being a key constraint these days) - which is why 1970s Mercedes were over-designed and go on for ever and today's models may not.
Yesterday, I saw a report about a claimed battery breakthrough which would reduce car battery costs by 1/3. If you think about this, that would at a stroke massively depreciate every electric car currently on the road. Combine that with the massive energy cost of building cars (this can be 1/3 of the lifetime fuel usage). Is this really ecological progress ? Or yet more planned/accidental obsolescence ?
Yesterday, I saw a report about a claimed battery breakthrough which would reduce car battery costs by 1/3. If you think about this, that would at a stroke massively depreciate every electric car currently on the road. Combine that with the massive energy cost of building cars (this can be 1/3 of the lifetime fuel usage). Is this really ecological progress ? Or yet more planned/accidental obsolescence ?
Reduced resale value does not reduce vehicle lifetime. It may even extend it by finding new owners more easily. But it would mean that faults in subsystems are less likely to be cost effective to replace. We could hope for a more modular vehicle with easier replacements and even upgrades. As the market matures for EVs we may see some vendors explore that, much like Jeep and Toyota have vehicles that are easily repaired.
Repairability is changing. The original Model S for example was built like an exotic hypercar and even slight body dents were astoundingly expensive to fix. Now the Model 3 and Y have made commonly damaged parts easy to replace or repair, with more use of steel and replaceable smaller panels well isolated from the chassis. So, we could see similar evolution in other functions, especially as the vehicle batteries and drive train seem to last forever, creating an interesting secondary market.
Those particular vehicles will not show up in the USA, any more than the low end ICE vehicles from China or India are relevant here, and for the same reasons. However, it is correct that EVs will continue to become cheaper. Owners of existing vehicles will not magically be driving scrap. The existing EVs are a delight to drive and will remain that for years to come. The smart companies making EVs today will secure their battery supply chain and be in the mass markets in the future.
Cheaper, better EVs will have a serious impact on ICE vehicle values too. Combined with the demonstrated behavior of the fossil fuel cartel closing ranks to keep out the riffraff and ensure they can steadily raise gas prices to squeeze every last dollar from their remaining fields.
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