jms_embedded
Well-known member
...and here we are, NXP's earnings call was today. Worth the read (or listen). They claim they're still supply-constrained.Pardon my skepticism but I don't see the auto chip shortage as over. I'll wait to hear what Kurt Sievers has to say in NXP's earnings call next week.
NXP allegedly had 26% of the automotive MCU market at the beginning of 2021 (from an IHS Markit study) with Renesas at 30% and Infineon at 23%, so look at those three companies if you want a window on one part of the automotive supply situation. Two other major categories of automotive ICs would be analog ICs (including voltage regulators and PMIC) and power transistors, both of which are likely to be larger geometry and manufactured at in-house fabs of the auto/industrial semiconductor companies.
(After reading a number of these transcripts, I prefer hearing Sievers over the other European auto/industrial manufacturer CEOs: Jean-Marc Chery at ST, Jochen Hanebeck at Infineon. Sievers paints a clearer picture IMHO.)
Two highlights:
<--- begin excerpt --->
[Bill Betz, NXP CFO]
Now the good news is the inventory we have on hand is all long lived and has very low obsolescence risk. At the same time, I'd say, unfortunately, we're still constrained in several selective nodes. Remember, we buy about 60% externally. We do about 40% internally. That 40% really - more than two thirds of that internal capacity is linked to Auto and Industrial. So that's going to keep us at nice levels of utilization for the rest of the year.
<--- end excerpt --->
<--- begin excerpt --->
Joseph Moore (Morgan Stanley) -- Great. Thank you. I think you've talked about being for your Auto business having backlog coverage for the year. With the disruption in China, kind of would you still say that's the case? And as a follow-up, how are you guys thinking about NCNRs on your backlog this year? How flexible are you going to be if, for example, the China situation causes people to want to reschedule deliveries?
Kurt Sievers -- Yes. So Joe, first of all, the supply capability through the year. Clearly, the number of escalations has moderated. We still have a number of nastily short technologies. And I would call out 180 nanometers, 9055 gallium nitride [jms: I haven't heard the audio but I assume this should be transcribed "90 [nanometers], 55 [nanometers], gallium nitride"] and the high-voltage analog mixed signal, which is proprietary to NXP. This is, of course, in size less than it used to be, but it still leads to significant customer escalations and shortages, which we think will go through the year, but hopefully moderating towards the end of the year.
If we translate this back into supply capability, I think we said on the last call, we would be able to serve about 85% of kind of risk-adjusted backlog for the year. I'd say for this year, for '23, this is now more like 90% to 95%. So you see it's better. It's not yet on target. We are not yet in a position that we have visibility to serve everything we want, but we are coming closer.
<--- end excerpt --->
I don't know how much of the "nastily short technologies" Sievers mentioned are NXP's internal fabs, vs. foundry supply. NXP has in-house fabs down to 90nm (with 90nm from the Austin fab --- 200mm?! --- they inherited from Motorola) but outsources 90nm and below, so the 55nm is foundry and I would guess a chunk of the 90nm is also. From NXP's Q&A at Citi's Global Tech Conference in September 2022:
<--- begin excerpt --->
Chris Danely — Okay. Can you just maybe update everybody on your manufacturing strategy? How much is internal versus external and then where that’s trending in the future?
Kurt Sievers — Yeah. So, our manufacturing strategy for the back end, I stopped there because that’s simple and straightforward, is to do the majority in-house, so we are about 85%, we have our own factories. And we’ve also been able to scale them to the tune which was needed over this period. I mean, obviously, we also needed much more back-end manufacturing capacity, but that’s relatively quick to add. True, lead-times were long, but still that wasn’t really the source of shortage.
For the front end, we have about 60% from third parties and about 40% from our internal facilities, where the strategy is very straightforward. What we do internally is, is all in eight inch and at or greater than 90 nanometers. And it is very much geared towards proprietary special technologies. Think about gallium nitride, silicon-germanium, high-voltage mixed-signal technologies, which are proprietary and owned by NXP.
That’s what we what we use our own factories for, while all the more standard CMOS 90 nanometers all the way down to volume 16 nanometers, which we ship now in 14, is what we are getting from foundry partners. And again, that makes today about 60%. We think over time, it’s probably going to grow to 70% or even 75%.
<--- end excerpt --->
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