Taiwan Eyes Zero Tariffs with US, Pledges More Investment

[fansink]

Honestly I don't get the Taiwan being part of the First Island strategy.

1. If Taiwan was so important to be a part of the First Island strategy, why haven't we put a base in there? We have them in South Korea, Japan, Philippines.......every other First Island except that one place, and we have had 80 years since WWII to do it.
2. One would think China had 75 years since 1949 to study this problem. I mean this Island Chain strategy is not really a secret.
3. No US carrier group sailed through the Taiwan strait in 30 years. Why is that....

Even if China's oil supply choke points like Malacca straits is closed by US Navy, what's preventing China from blockading Taiwan and negotiate a "Oil for Semiconductors" deal?

My take is that Taiwan will be returned to China just like Hong Kong was. It's already recognized as part of One China policy anyway by all parties. Given the way Ukraine was thrown under the bus recently, it might not even be that far off. Question is, how quicky can we achieve Semiconductor Independence?

Some light reading may paint a better picture than I'm qualified to impart:

"Tightening the Chain: Implementing a Strategy of Maritime Pressure in the Western Pacific"
Source: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), 2019
Author: Multiple contributors, led by Thomas G. Mahnken
Why It’s Authoritative: CSBA is a respected think tank focused on U.S. defense strategy, and this report directly ties the First Island Chain to countering China’s military ambitions. It proposes a “Maritime Pressure” strategy, emphasizing the chain’s role in denying China a quick win (like seizing Taiwan) by leveraging its geography for U.S. and allied forces. It’s detailed, operational, and widely cited in defense circles.


"Defend the First Island Chain"
Source: U.S. Naval Institute (USNI) Proceedings, April 2014, Vol. 140/4/1,334
Author: James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara
Why It’s Authoritative: USNI is a premier naval strategy outlet, and the authors are noted naval scholars (Holmes at Naval War College, Yoshihara a former strategist). This piece argues the chain’s islands offer a natural defensive perimeter to thwart China’s naval breakout, drawing on historical parallels like WWII. It’s concise, strategic, and influential among military planners.


"Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China"
Source: U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), 2018 (with updates in later years)
Why It’s Authoritative: This is the U.S. government’s official assessment, mandated by Congress, and it repeatedly highlights the First Island Chain as the focal point of China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities. It’s dry but factual, offering unclassified insights into how the Pentagon views the chain’s role in containing China’s naval reach. The 2018 edition is foundational, though 2023-2024 updates refine the picture.


"How to Deter China: The Case for Archipelagic Defense"
Source: Foreign Affairs, March/April 2015
Author: Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr.
Why It’s Authoritative: Foreign Affairs is a top-tier policy journal, and Krepinevich, a former CSBA president, is a heavyweight in defense strategy. This article frames the First Island Chain as the backbone of an “archipelagic defense” to deter China, blending geography, alliances, and military tech. It’s accessible yet deep, shaping broader strategic debates.

 

[Xebec]

I believe this. Ukraine is a horrible reminder that there are no winners in a war like that and China has a much stronger military than Russia. The Taiwan Army would be decimated. My bet is that China would wait until Trump is gone before starting anything with Taiwan. The Silicon Shield is stronger than ever.

100% agree no winners in war.

On paper China has a much stronger military, but like with Russia we won't actually know how effective they are until bad things are happening. Obviously better to take their threat potential seriously, but they could fold in fear like the Iraqi army, or have terrible logistics capabilities like Russia's current army or Germany in WW2. No doubt we've got plenty of war scenarios played out to exploit and encourage these kinds of weaknesses.

Russia even fought wars recently and still performed terribly under expectations; I don't think China has any real combat experience for the last 40 years. If the leadership in China has any understanding they'll know this too.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

This is how you do it. Shake up world peace then sell defense and security products:

Vietnam to buy US defence, security products to tackle trade gap​

HANOI (Reuters) -Vietnam will buy more American goods, including defence and security products, and has asked for a 45-day delay in the imposition of U.S. tariffs, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said in a statement issued late on Monday. Hanoi will also seek faster deliveries of commercial planes that Vietnamese airlines have ordered from the U.S., Chinh said at a cabinet meeting late on Monday.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/vietnam-buy-us-defence-security-004436647.html

 

[Xebec]

This is how you do it. Shake up world peace then sell defense and security products:

Vietnam to buy US defence, security products to tackle trade gap​

HANOI (Reuters) -Vietnam will buy more American goods, including defence and security products, and has asked for a 45-day delay in the imposition of U.S. tariffs, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said in a statement issued late on Monday. Hanoi will also seek faster deliveries of commercial planes that Vietnamese airlines have ordered from the U.S., Chinh said at a cabinet meeting late on Monday.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/vietnam-buy-us-defence-security-004436647.html

Ferrengi Rule of Acquisition 34 - War is good for business

(and 35 -- Peace is good for business)

 

[jeffwessel]

Last Thursday, April 3rd, there was in interesting article titled "Analysis: Mystery deepens over disappearances of Xi's 'trusted' generals" published in NikkeiAsia. Worth reading.

Analysis: Mystery deepens over disappearances of Xi's 'trusted' generals

The Chinese Communist Party's latest leadership meeting provides some clues

asia.nikkei.com

 

[john32979]

This is how you do it. Shake up world peace then sell defense and security products:

Vietnam to buy US defence, security products to tackle trade gap​

HANOI (Reuters) -Vietnam will buy more American goods, including defence and security products, and has asked for a 45-day delay in the imposition of U.S. tariffs, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said in a statement issued late on Monday. Hanoi will also seek faster deliveries of commercial planes that Vietnamese airlines have ordered from the U.S., Chinh said at a cabinet meeting late on Monday.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/vietnam-buy-us-defence-security-004436647.html

Last Thursday, April 3rd, there was in interesting article titled "Analysis: Mystery deepens over disappearances of Xi's 'trusted' generals" published in NikkeiAsia. Worth reading.

Analysis: Mystery deepens over disappearances of Xi's 'trusted' generals

The Chinese Communist Party's latest leadership meeting provides some clues

asia.nikkei.com

This has been happening to generals that were considered "his guys" over the last 3-4 years. It might actually be round 2 or even 3 of the purges. People in the intelligence world might have better insight into what's going on. I doubt the new guys are much better than the old guys when it comes to corruption, but my opinion is probably only as good as reading tea leaves.

 

[tonyget]

Russia even fought wars recently and still performed terribly under expectations; I don't think China has any real combat experience for the last 40 years. If the leadership in China has any understanding they'll know this too.

Chinese military has more combat experience than Taiwanese, when was the last time Taiwanese fought a war？ As for the US. The US navy haven't fought any battle on high sea since WWII

 

[tonyget]

I believe this. Ukraine is a horrible reminder that there are no winners in a war like that and China has a much stronger military than Russia. The Taiwan Army would be decimated. My bet is that China would wait until Trump is gone before starting anything with Taiwan. The Silicon Shield is stronger than ever.

The lesson China learned form Russo-Ukraine war is，nuclear deterrence matters. The US does not want fight Russia over Ukraine，because Russia has a credible nuclear arsenal. That's why China is expanding it's nuclear force in recent years rapidly, this will totally alter American calculus over Taiwan contingence

 

[soAsian]

Chinese military has more combat experience than Taiwanese, when was the last time Taiwanese fought a war？ As for the US. The US navy haven't fought any battle on high sea since WWII

This has to be a joke. China has never been tested in any modern war. Russia, supposedly the second most powerful military, got shattered by Ukraine, and now we're back to WWI-style trench warfare.


The last time China fought a war was in 1979 against Vietnam, and that ended in a draw. When has the China ever engaged in naval warfare? When has China ever fought a real naval war—back in the Qing Dynasty?


The U.S., on the other hand, has real combat experience in modern warfare—Desert Storm, both Iraq wars, Afghanistan, and more.

 

[tonyget]

This has to be a joke. China has never been tested in any modern war. Russia, supposedly the second most powerful military, got shattered by Ukraine, and now we're back to WWI-style trench warfare.

Even according to Western sources，Russia is winning and Ukraine is losing.

The last time China fought a war was in 1979 against Vietnam, and that ended in a draw. When has the China ever engaged in naval warfare? When has China ever fought a real naval war—back in the Qing Dynasty?

The last time China engaged in naval warfare was in 1988 against Vietnam. China won that war

The U.S., on the other hand, has real combat experience in modern warfare—Desert Storm, both Iraq wars, Afghanistan, and more.

That's not naval warfare，right？Land warfare experiences isn't much relevant in a potential Taiwan contingence. The only country have recent large scale combat experiences，are Russia and Ukraine.

 

[Paul2]

The Taiwan Army would be decimated.

Taiwan army will think what to do with all that plutonium waiting doing doing nothing in spent fuel pools, and then say hello to Shamen.

 

[Paul2]

Astonishingly there are 70% students decided to surrender for no war.

And nobody will be asking these university students. Military service is mandatory, and, in worst case, unwilling reservists will be made to fight at gunpoint.

Too many Americans don't understand that you don't have a choice to fight, or not to fight. If you have ever participated in politics, green, blue or even red, (The first party commies destroyed in Hongkong was a pro-communist labour union) you are on the kill list, as well as 9 families of yours. If you ever worked for the government, you will be on the kill list. If you ever had any social prominence, you will be on the kill list. If you are a businessman who could organise people, you will be on the kill list. If you are a super-valuable semiconductor engineer, you will likely be abducted and live a life with barrel of a gun in your back orifice, which is even worse.

This pretty much means that whoever holds power, and prominence to command the war will not only fight, but fight with beastly determination like the last holdouts of Chungching.

The fall of Hongkong has greatly vaccinated the populace against defeatist memes.

 

[jeffwessel]

This has been happening to generals that were considered "his guys" over the last 3-4 years. It might actually be round 2 or even 3 of the purges. People in the intelligence world might have better insight into what's going on. I doubt the new guys are much better than the old guys when it comes to corruption, but my opinion is probably only as good as reading tea leaves.

No question this is not round 1. Not even sure you can consider this as more than just what typically goes on over time in many countries, not only China.

 

[Paul2]

Chinese military has more combat experience than Taiwanese, when was the last time Taiwanese fought a war？ As for the US. The US navy haven't fought any battle on high sea since WWII

The last of sino-vietnamese war generals were purged by CPC. They will never let their military to get too powerful.

I can't remember when it was the last time when a Taiwanese general was sent to jail.

The last one who even entertained ideas of going around other generals to discuss LTH politics was just forcefully retired with full pension, and privileges.

 

[john32979]

Looks like the whole tariff stunt might just be one "yuge" mafia Don's loyalty test after all. Congratulations to all countries that kissed the ring. Looks like Taiwan may get F-35s after all and Vietnam will be the new Guangdong province.

 

[Paul2]

Vietnam will be the new Guangdong province.

A note on Vietnam, and India. Aside from Samsung, all other manufacturers there only do knock down kit assembly to qualify for local market exemptions (tax, and etc.)

They may not qualify for their origin to not be mainland China under US customs rules.

 

[john32979]

A note on Vietnam, and India. Aside from Samsung, all other manufacturers there only do knock down kit assembly to qualify for local market exemptions (tax, and etc.)

They may not qualify for their origin to not be mainland China under US customs rules.

Yes, for electronics and I know that's what this forum mostly cares about. But Vietnam also manufactures for Nike and Lululemon. The mundane stuff like fashion and sneakers are important too. Taiwanese media also reported that the precondition on any deal with the US must include Vietnamese tariffs on Chinese goods to prevent country of origin laundering like you mentioned. I suspect Taiwan got the same bullet point on their term sheet. Low value stuff will head to countries like Vietnam and possibly some very high value stuff gets sent to the US.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

Today's 90 day tariff pause supports my guess that this is all a negotiation tactic. Let's see how much of the $1T trade deficit can be erased without a war breaking out.

 

[tonyget]

The last of sino-vietnamese war generals were purged by CPC. They will never let their military to get too powerful..

I can't remember when it was the last time when a Taiwanese general was sent to jail.

What‘s the point of sending generals with no combat experiences to jail. One of the biggest unknown factor of Taiwan contingence，is how much will to fight do Taiwanese have？Many suspect that there is not much

 

[tonyget]

Vietnam will be the new Guangdong province.

Vietnam and other SE countries's path of development is very different form China/Japan/Korea. Have you ever heard of any brand coming from these SE countries？There is huge difference between the development model that focus on promoting your national champion，versus the model that focus solely on attracting foreign companies.

SE countries never will be serious contenders of high tech power house. They also don't have hard working cultures like East Asia countries，their cultures is more akin to Latin America from certain degree.