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If Intel is to succeed strategically as the US-based leading edge foundry, I don't see how being acquired can support that. Either you end up with someone who will ruthlessly cost cut (e.g., private equity, Broadcom) or with a company that adds onto the conflict of interest between foundry and customer (e.g., any fabless company). Neither would put Intel into a better position than they are today (apart from additional capital).
If Intel is to succeed strategically as the US-based leading edge foundry, I don't see how being acquired can support that. Either you end up with someone who will ruthlessly cost cut (e.g., private equity, Broadcom) or with a company that adds onto the conflict of interest between foundry and customer (e.g., any fabless company). Neither would put Intel into a better position than they are today (apart from additional capital).
If I were betting I would say Broadcom. They are the only player that I think could integrate a company as complex as Intel. There might be others out there who might be looking to kick the tires, but AVGO is the only company that has a realistic chance of pulling it off.
There is a big question around anti trust, but remember that we are dealing with a totally different administration in the US that might be more open to this sort of thing.
My two cents since I want to be an 'active member'! I have no more knowledge (and even less technical knowledge) than you....
Broadcom
If Broadcom couldn't snag Qualcomm due to national security concerns (by Trump! source: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/tru...ting-broadcoms-bid-to-take-over-qualcomm.html) in 2018. I don't understand how they can get approval from the US government (or China for that matter) to snag Intel...especially given how important the US now views Intel's foundry business. What am I missing here?
Apple
In my opinion, not a chance....due to China. I can't imagine a scenario where China would ever want a stronger U.S. foundry (Intel). Given Apple's immense business in China, I can't see this happening.
I can't believe Tim Cook would ever want the headaches of being a foundry, or even just an IDM. Apple's client and mobile processors are better than Intel's IMO.
Samsung
See my reasoning for Broadcom. The US would reject a foreign entity controlling their only cutting-edge foundry or China would reject the deal. Like Apple, Samsung does immense business in China.
Nvidia
IF there was a tech company that realistically could swallow Intel, Nvidia would be my pick. I can't imagine there would be any objections by the US government and while Nvidia does immense business in China, China strongly desires/wants to use Nvidia's technologies. Perhaps a deal might be remotely possible here?
Huang is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too smart to acquire Intel whole or even just the product group. Huang buys companies to make Nvidia stronger, not distract Nvidia with turnaround candidates.
Hedge Funds
If the US wants to see Intel die, then by all means let them purchase Intel. The last thing we need is having profit-driven people known for sacrificing long-term success in charge of a critical technology.
ARM
ARM was interested in Intel's product division but not its foundry business. Given that its a foreign company and Intel previously agreeing NOT to fully sell its foundry business in order to receive around $8 billion in CHIPS Act grants...I don't see ARM making another effort.
In a pre-session check, I noticed that TSLA is positively correlated with the rest of the group when I was curious about who might be a potential suitor.
I like the perspective that Elon could bring a more competitive culture to Intel. Also, TSLA is one of the few U.S. companies that strongly advocates for U.S. manufacturing, which makes this idea even more compelling.
I just don’t see a purchase of Intel being approved by China, ever. The US has its cards to play in the tech war and China has its own. They would gladly see it die rather than be saved.
Stacy implied that limiting the scope of Intel's fabs could help turn the company around financially. This aligns with the view expressed by Citi's analyst.
Here’s what I wrote in the comments:
"I think the key point for Intel is to control costs. Even that means less custom foundry revenue. Treats its foundry assets as its OWN insurance for geo-instability. If you only pay for your own insurance and not pay others, you save costs."
In my opinion, PG should have foreseen the risks of expanding the scope too far. Bringing stakeholders to this precarious state is both unnecessary and irresponsible.
I am an Elon Musk fan but I do not think that is a good idea at all. How has Twitter done? Intel is WAY more bloated than Twitter. Hock Tan is the man for acquiring Intel.
Wait, I thought Elon was buying Tick Tock? That I might believe. Merge it with X and give it a go because I do not see X thriving amongst advertisers.
Laugh all you want, but the dummies, excuse me, stock traders, have bid INTC shares up 9% this morning, apparently based on Demerjian's posting, which was reported by Bloomberg.
I am an Elon Musk fan but I do not think that is a good idea at all. How has Twitter done? Intel is WAY more bloated than Twitter. Hock Tan is the man for acquiring Intel.
Wait, I thought Elon was buying Tick Tock? That I might believe. Merge it with X and give it a go because I do not see X thriving amongst advertisers.
Intel needs a full-time CEO with the authority to work with employees for the next several years. Mr. Musk and the person he hired under his shadow won't be able to do it.