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Is anybody really surprised by this? I still think semiconductors will have an overall positive growth year in 2016 (+1-2%) and a much bigger rebound in 2017 (+5-8%). Unless of course China bubbles...
The IDC has released new estimates that smartphone shipments will grow just 3% year-over-year (YoY) in 2016 to hit almost 1.5 billion devices. This is a marked decrease from the 10.5% YoY growth in 2015, and likely stems from saturation in developed markets and the fact that emerging markets have yet to show rapid growth....
I agree with the chart. I would expect smartphone shipments to plateau around 2-2.5b units a year (which implies smartphone penetration slightly below 1 per person on a global population of 7.5b, replaced once every 3 years on average. It might be a slightly conservative estimate as mobile phone penetration is actually greater than 1 in many countries (some people have both work and home phones), and I would assume virtually all mobile phones will eventually be smartphones.
I wouldn't count smartphones out. Apple has the iPhone 7 in production and rumors suggest it will be a big seller. As an iPhone and iPad fan I agree completely. At the TSMC Symposium in Taiwan last week the chatter in the halls was mostly about Apple. TSMC is said to be the sole source for Apple iPhone7 silicon and orders are said to be piling up amongst the supply chain. The initial manufacturing targets suggest 75-80M units making the iPhone 7 the highest production target in the last two years.
Apple is expected to release three variants this year versus the traditional two: iPhone 7, iPhone 7+, and iPhone 7 Pro. All of which are expected to have new packaging (more glass), better cameras (dual camera lens), more storage (32Gb-265GB), and a new smart connector (no headphone jack).
Personally, I think there is pent up demand from iPhone 5 and 5s owners who are ready to upgrade. I will definitely trade-in my iPhone 6 for a 7 Pro to match my iPad Pro. Given that, I feel the iPhone 7 will break previous sales records and boost the semiconductor supply chain (TSMC) significantly.
TSM stock price has taken off in the last few days, with this chatter perhaps underlying that. The chart of TSM (NYSE ADR of TSMC's Taiwan-listed stock) is a pretty sweet looking trade setup. It's in a channel up since bottoming in August 2015.
The reaction in May-August 2015 was different, a big dip. TSM went from 24 to 18. Speculating on Apple chatter can be profitable or the opposite. I think I'll place my bets conservatively, although, leveraging this forum's knowledge, we should be able to make some money on this thing.
I wouldn't count smartphones out. Apple has the iPhone 7 in production and rumors suggest it will be a big seller. As an iPhone and iPad fan I agree completely. At the TSMC Symposium in Taiwan last week the chatter in the halls was mostly about Apple. TSMC is said to be the sole source for Apple iPhone7 silicon and orders are said to be piling up amongst the supply chain. The initial manufacturing targets suggest 75-80M units making the iPhone 7 the highest production target in the last two years.
Apple is expected to release three variants this year versus the traditional two: iPhone 7, iPhone 7+, and iPhone 7 Pro. All of which are expected to have new packaging (more glass), better cameras (dual camera lens), more storage (32Gb-265GB), and a new smart connector (no headphone jack).
Personally, I think there is pent up demand from iPhone 5 and 5s owners who are ready to upgrade. I will definitely trade-in my iPhone 6 for a 7 Pro to match my iPad Pro. Given that, I feel the iPhone 7 will break previous sales records and boost the semiconductor supply chain (TSMC) significantly.
The initial manufacturing target may or may not be indicative of the total production target/sales. As I remember in recent years Apple has been constantly increasing the number of countries where new model went on sale on day one. It might simply reflect improvements in Foxconn manufacturing flexibilities.
