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You can judge China’s WFE progress by looking at Naura Technology, the country’s top manufacturer and a genuinely established player.But actually, we need the equipments experts to check these stuff to have a fair judgement about the distance between these and what we had now.
Last year, I read an article by a senior process engineer based in mainland China that sheds light on the state of Chinese WFE self-sufficiency. Two key points stood out: 1) Every 10% increase in self-sufficiency results in an 8-9% yield loss, highlighting the trade-off with domestic tools. 2) Huawei’s demo fab near Shanghai, operating with ~50% domestic WFE, has been unable to reach full production for over a year, stalling efforts to scale further. It’s a sobering snapshot of China’s progress
When comparing today’s China to the former USSR, consider this: at its peak in the late 1980s, the USSR’s GDP per capita was about one-third of the U.S.’s, while China’s in 2024 is less than one-sixth. A key advantage China has, unlike the USSR, is access to roughly 90% of Western technologies even now. But if the West cuts off all components, materials, and subsystems for WFE, China might struggle to assemble a single functional WFE tool, highlighting its dependency.It reminds me of the Cold War, when USA is fighting with USSR on the industrial/economical front.
In the end as a huge nation as USSR can run out of money and collapsed.
Not sure if China is running it at net positive /negative cash flow (probably negative) , and how much is the the negative margin...
But surely Trump is forcing China to turn their negative gap even more black
It reminds me of the Cold War, when USA is fighting with USSR on the industrial/economical front.
In the end as a huge nation as USSR can run out of money and collapsed.
Not sure if China is running it at net positive /negative cash flow (probably negative) , and how much is the the negative margin...
But surely Trump is forcing China to turn their negative gap even more black
there is also comments said they plan to use these for 'mass production' in 2030, not for machine, just chip manufacture.Twinscan EXE:5000 LEGO run $230 a pop. So, what’s the sticker price on these Huawei-backed SiCarrier ‘tool lego’ they’re stacking at Semicon China? Let’s get serious: how many will they actually make and sell by end of 2025—or even 2030? I’m guessing a handful, tops
there is also comments said they plan to use these for 'mass production' in 2030, not for machine, just chip manufacture.
Then my question will be, for systems that have already been released, isn't 5 years too long to use? By then, we'll probably be talking about 1nm.