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I remember when Pat said they had over 100 customer engagements or something about significant customer interest for IFS. That set the expectations very high and there is no where to go but down from there. I do see IFS packaging as a business opportunity but TSMC has the home court advantage and they are increasing packaging capacity at a very high rate, something like doubling this year and next year. TSMC will only package TSMC die so Intel Foundry and Samsung Foundry die are not welcome.
Personally I am rooting for Intel Foundry as is everybody I know, even TSMC. I just think they need to pivot and not go head-to-head with TSMC otherwise Pat Gelsinger will lose his head.
Intel of the past made its money from a strategy of vertical integration of process technology and CPU design. This combination proved to be potent for decades. I was specifically impressed with the Intel "Copy Exact" philosophy that allowed them to scale a processor line across many lines and many fabs with minimum risk and bring-up time.
Today, the price of each node improvement has increased exponentially. Intel now finds itself behind the competition, and in need of multiple, very costly, node improvements in order to compete with a completely different kind of company (TSMC and pure fabrication).
In my thinking, this is a much bigger deal than just creating a process node that is equivalent to the competition, it is about changing the DNA of Intel, creating a new kind of company, and doing it all without losing so much money that the idea gets canned before it can reach profitability.
It was widely reported a few months ago that Nvidia was exploring Intel specifically just for packaging. (driven by potential TSMC packaging supply limits) As always, neither side said anything official.
