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This is the very reason I want something I can measure progress against. I want to see that what we are hearing from Intel is not more of the same. Given Lip-Bu Tan's past record I'm inclined to believe he will do what he says, but I want a way to validate that belief.
I'd also point out the two things in your list above that are measurable (product launches and IFS breakeven) were laid out under Gelsinger.
Thanks for your detailed analysis/info on TSMC's fab-size strategy. Perhaps the Arizona-fab is the new US-version of a connected-GigaFab coming into existence? See also your earlier thread about this, I was not aware of it, my apologies: https://semiwiki.com/forum/threads/tsmc-phoenix-arizona-fab-site-plan.16066/
Very impressive to scroll through a couple of recent 2025-photos where you can see the shell of Phase 2 done; the groundwork of building Phase-3 started end of April-2025: https://maps.app.goo.gl/t6U4F29pQezG7fR8A
Here again the link on the story about "super-Arizona-CEO" Ying-Lang Wang: https://cwnewsroom.substack.com/p/key-figure-behind-tsmc-us-expansion-yinglang-wang Ying-Lang Wang has long overseen TSMC’s fabs in Southern Taiwan Science Park, the center for 5nm and 3nm production—a critical growth driver that helped TSMC pull ahead of Intel and Samsung in recent years.
In April 2023, he was urgently sent to the U.S. to take over the troubled Arizona fab, successfully leading the team to begin mass production of 4nm chips earlier this year.
Indeed a formidable activity by TSMC in Arizona, in combination with the new packaging plant and "R&D"-center in the future at that site.
TSMC refers to its Arizona project as Fab 21, which includes at least six planned phases. Each phase is designated for a different process node, with Phase One designed to produce approximately 24,000 300mm wafers for N4 per month. If you combine the capacity of all six phases, it would qualify as a GigaFab by TSMC’s standard. However, using Intel’s definition, these would be considered six individual smaller fabs.
Nope, I don't know a soul there. His performance at Cadence was nothing short of amazing. It is what gives me hope he can turn Intel around.
I feel like you may have missed my point. So far Lip-Bu Tan has essentially given a list of goals (build trust, deliver promised products/services on time, etc.). However, he has given no timelines nor elaborated on how he measures progress towards these goals. That is the only thing I have an issue with. How am I to determine if his plan to achieve these goals is on track, ahead or behind?
I see your point but it seems to me a bit naive. Cutting a big part of a Intel is a painful process, one that should not be taken lightly. Why would Lip-Bu layout detailed plans to people who will no longer work there? Or are you talking about something like Pat's 5N4Y marketing schtick? Was that really motivating for people in the manufacturing trenches?
This is the very reason I want something I can measure progress against. I want to see that what we are hearing from Intel is not more of the same. Given Lip-Bu Tan's past record I'm inclined to believe he will do what he says, but I want a way to validate that belief.
I'd also point out the two things in your list above that are measurable (product launches and IFS breakeven) were laid out under Gelsinger.
Pat Gelsinger inherited inferior node process tech (10nm) & inferior product road map (Sapphire rapids on DC CPU - Alder lake was good on client side but didn't address the notebook battery life aspects) and managed a business under external pressure from degrading PC business after post COVID boom due to inventory glut & loss of DC CPU business due to hyperscalers extending their server useful life post COVID & emergence of generative AI getting all the hyperscale capex.
Lip Bu Tan on the other hand is inheriting a competitive node process tech (even if 18A is only N3P comp) & competitive product road map (DMR, PTL, NVL) in Intel's core markets. He is also coming in just in time for Windows 10 EOL PC refresh cycle and at the end of that post COVID server useful life extension. All he has to do is drive operational efficiency and get customers to sign on for foundry. (& Add competitive AI products to get some revenue)
Oh Come on! 5N4Y strategy also came with increased investment in R&D for accelerated foundry node development process. It does not matter how many nodes were developed & cancelled with some delay, the end goal is catching up in process node tech which they have done more or less done. All things indicate 18A is N3P/ N2 comp node depending on which letter you focus on PPACT!
1000%. Ann's (not Pat's) 5N4Y plan was a north star for people in the trenches to follow. Going back to Intel's long-standing status as the unquestioned process technology leader was top of mind and a measurable goal to drive your accomplishments towards. That goal is also what motivated ex Intel people who left from the toxic culture and underinvestment of the 2010s to come back from tool vendors, TSMC, Micron, SK, GF, etc. as well as folks who were laid off BK wanted to do cuts because of his failed mobile push.
Oh Come on! 5N4Y strategy also came with increased investment in R&D for accelerated foundry node development process. It does not matter how many nodes were developed & cancelled with some delay, the end goal is catching up in process node tech which they have done more or less done. All things indicate 18A is N3P/ N2 comp node depending on which letter you focus on PPACT!
1000%. Ann's (not Pat's) 5N4Y plan was a north star for people in the trenches to follow. Going back to Intel's long-standing status as the unquestioned process technology leader was top of mind and a measurable goal to drive your accomplishments towards. That goal is also what motivated ex Intel people who left from the toxic culture and underinvestment of the 2010s to come back from tool vendors, TSMC, Micron, SK, GF, etc. as well as folks who were laid off BK wanted to do cuts because of his failed mobile push.
Yes, Pat said Intel would beat TSMC and then he retired unexpectedly. Had Pat said Intel would beat Samsung Foundry he may not have retired unexpectedly. What about BK? He had so much Intel manufacturing and operations experience? He got fired as well and it was not due to his failed mobile strategy (Otellini botched mobile for Intel), it was BK's mishandling of 14nm. Of course Intel said it was because of a past consensual relationship. Just like Intel said Pat retired.
How are employees motived by lies, pipe dreams, and massive layoffs? We call it drinking the Corporate Kool-Aide and Intel is famous for it. Lip-Bu is not famous for it so get ready for change.
Before/After/During the layoffs? How many heads at the end of the project? How long to reach the end state?
I have not seen the details on this roadmap, nor even a timeline on when it should get rolled out.
Launch Dates? I've seen EOY for Panther Lake and I think Q1'26 for CWF. The others are still speculative unless I missed something.
This one is clearly measurable. No complaints here
How many should I expect? When?
As I said. Largely a list of goals lacking in clear milestones. Lip-Bu Tan may have something in mind, but he hasn't communicated that to the market. I agree it is fairly clear on what he wants to do, but in most of these cases I don't have a good way to measure progress towards the goals.
I think the reason you and some Intel employees lack a clear sense is because you don't follow Intel closely enough. How is it that I don’t even work for Intel, yet I have a better understanding of what’s going on?
Regarding hiring, DZ mentioned that one of Lip-Bu’s key priorities is to rebuild Intel’s talent pool:
On launch dates, I won’t elaborate because they’ve already addressed this during the investor meeting—emphasizing "execution." MJ and DZ also added more context, particularly about launching products on A-stepping silicon.
They’ve already stated that for 14A, they’ll need a partner. Lip-Bu has proactively visited all potential customers to gather both positive and negative feedback.
Pat never said that afaik. He said Intel will achieve unquestioned process leadership with 18A at the end of 5N4Y and in terms of foundry, he said they will become the second largest foundry. There is going to be an Intel 18A product end of this year (one PTL SKU). If that product achieves better performance than TSMC's leading edge process N3P\N3X at that time, then Intel likely does achieves that. Afaik, there is no N2 based products this year and AMD being the first N2 customer likely launches their products late next year (Computex 2026 at best). AMD's EPYC Turin launched in October 2024 iirc, so by the time TSMC's N2 PC\HPC products launch next year by AMD, Intel would have shipped millions of 18A silicon. imo. Remember C.C Wei claimed N3P is comparable to 18A on PPA based on their internal assessments and I still think he was overselling his product in that statement. Let's see how it goes.
Just like Intel said Pat retired.