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How far are perovskite solar cells?

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
From my reading perovskite solar cells are the future. Efficiencies and their potential are all over the map from my reading. Any thoughts or information on these solar cells or other types appreciated. It seems solar cells mounted on the car could reach thirty miles a day from my reading. Any thoughts or observations on this appreciated, especially on what companies will take the lead, THANKS.
 
+1 - also the solar industry has been a bit of a race to the bottom on cost, not leaving a lot of room for really premium cells.
Not surprising because the worldwide mass solar panel market is clearly driven by kW/$, not kW/m2 where "really premium cells" are targeted.

There are a few applications where kW/m2 wins (e.g. boats and RVs where there's a hard limit on area) but these are tiny markets in comparison to grid solar arrays.

So more efficient technologies like multilayer cells (e.g. perovskite-on-silicon) will only take off big-time when their cost equals that of silicon panels -- which are made in enormous volumes today which drives the cost down, so it's difficult for a new technology to compete unless it can be made in volume in the same factories with the same equipment.

Which may well be possible for perovskite-on-silicon, but will never happen for the exotic multilayer cells using expensive raw materials which keep making the efficiency headlines...
 
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Not close. The latest perovskite cells suffer greatly from stability and environmental degradation issues. Along with using lead-based compounds (e.g., PbI2), and distinct equipment processes (e,g. slot-die coating or ink jet printing).

Solving all these conditions will take decades to achieve a comparable cost relative to silicon today. Tandem based structures will most likely be released over the next decade and will form a more niche market for high kW/m2 situations.

It’s important to note that media Headlines almost universal emphases the positive aspects, while neglecting to fully explain the downsides, subsequently causing an exaggeration of the expectations of emerging technology. (e.g. fully driverless cars).
 
Not close. The latest perovskite cells suffer greatly from stability and environmental degradation issues. Along with using lead-based compounds (e.g., PbI2), and distinct equipment processes (e,g. slot-die coating or ink jet printing).

Solving all these conditions will take decades to achieve a comparable cost relative to silicon today. Tandem based structures will most likely be released over the next decade and will form a more niche market for high kW/m2 situations.

It’s important to note that media Headlines almost universal emphases the positive aspects, while neglecting to fully explain the downsides, subsequently causing an exaggeration of the expectations of emerging technology. (e.g. fully driverless cars).
Which is what I said -- to take over the mass market "new technology" solar cells (like perovskite-on-solar) have to be competitive on kW/$ with conventional monosilicon cells -- and the cost obviously includes both manufacturing cost and lifetime (and cost to replace them when they die), so if they have shorter lifetime they have to be even cheaper to make.

Some panel manufacturers have said they can be made on existing production lines, but obviously there must be more production steps to add the perovskite layer so this will put the cost per m2 up. Probably by less than the savings due to increased efficiency, but only as long as lifetime is comparable. If the lifetime problem can be solved, then they'll probably end up cheaper per kW as well as smaller size for the same power -- but it isn't solved yet.

As you say, solar panels and batteries both suffer from the "FANTASTIC NEW BREAKTHROUGH!!!" headlines which almost always ignore realities like scaling up and raw material cost/availability -- mono solar panels use dirt cheap materials and can be made cheaply in massive volumes, and this is a huge hill to climb for anything "better"...
 
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