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Europe at last has an answer to Silicon Valley

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
TEN TIMES a second an object shaped like a thick pizza box and holding a silicon wafer takes off three times faster than a manned rocket. For a few milliseconds it moves at a constant speed before being halted abruptly with astonishing precision—within a single atom of its target.

This is not a high-energy physics experiment. It is the latest lithography machine dreamed up by ASML (ASML.AS) (ASML), a manufacturer of chipmaking tools, to project nanoscopic chip patterns onto silicon wafers. On January 5th Intel, an American semiconductor giant, became the first proud owner of this technical marvel’s initial components for assembly at its factory in Oregon.

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Like the outwardly unassuming machine, its Dutch maker is full of surprises. The company’s market value has quadrupled in the past five years, to €260bn ($285bn), making it Europe’s most valuable technology firm (see chart 1).

Between 2012 and 2022 its revenues and net income both rose roughly four-fold, to €21bn and €6bn, respectively. At the end of 2023 ASML’s operating margin exceeded 34%, staggering for a hardware business and more than that of Apple, the world’s biggest maker of consumer electronics (see chart 2).

Such stellar performance, which is likely to shine even more brightly when ASML reports quarterly results on January 24th, is now routine.

The firm holds a monopoly on a key link in the world’s most critical supply chain: without its kit it is next to impossible to make cutting-edge computer processors, such as those that go into smartphones and data centres where artificial intelligence (AI) is trained.

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With global semiconductor sales forecast to double to $1.3trn by 2032, every big country and every big chipmaker wants ASML’s gear. The company has become so important in the Sino-American techno-tussle that, as it emerged at the start of the year, President Joe Biden’s administration pressed ASML to cancel planned deliveries of even its older machines to China.

Yet ASML’s spectacular success is also underpinned by two other, less obvious factors. The company has created a network of suppliers and technology partners that may be the closest thing Europe has to Silicon Valley. And its business model ingeniously combines hardware with software and data.

These unsung elements of ASML’s success challenge the notion that the old continent is incapable of developing a successful digital platform.

Shrinking trick

ASML’s complex machines perform a simple task. They project the blueprints of computer chips onto photosensitive silicon wafers.

In 1986, when its first model was delivered, individual transistors measured micrometers and the company’s kit was almost like a glorified photocopier, explains Marc Hijink, a Dutch journalist and author of “Focus—How ASML Conquered the Chip World”, a new book. Today, with transistors shrunk by a factor of a thousand, ASML lithography gear is possibly the most sophisticated equipment ever sold commercially.

Story Continues
 
I read that article on the Yahoo Finance. Not to deny ASML's accomplishments one bit, but one company does not a Silicon Valley competitor make. If there is a Silicon Valley competitor it's probably the entire country of Israel, which by coincidence has a similar population to the SF Bay metro area.

More interesting is that ASML uses a similar manufacturing strategy as Boeing, which means they act more as a design center and an integrator of other companies' unique manufacturing capabilities than simply a full-on manufacturer. So far, ASML's implementation of this strategy has out-performed Boeing's, but it does make me wonder about the schedule coordination and quality control risks inherent in it.
 
More interesting is that ASML uses a similar manufacturing strategy as Boeing, which means they act more as a design center and an integrator of other companies' unique manufacturing capabilities than simply a full-on manufacturer. So far, ASML's implementation of this strategy has out-performed Boeing's, but it does make me wonder about the schedule coordination and quality control risks inherent in it.
The old Boeing or the new? Before or after they knuckled under the need to have a significant subcontractor in every significant market due to the high level of political intervention in fleet sales? Oh right, that is pretty much the transition we face now, though ASML does not have the equivalent of Airbus to magnify the leverage of subcontractors.

At present ASML seems to have done well in vertical integration of most operations that used to be subcontractors, over time having acquired the twinscan system and transport chassis, the laser sources, and the tin plasma source, while increasing its hold over Zeiss for the high end DUV lenses and as sole customer for EUV. It seems to develop software, vacuum control, trace gasses, water flow, and overall integration.

In aircraft terms this is more like Boeing before the 777 and the McDonnell reverse aquisition, when engines were like lenses but all the rest of the airframe was in house under one experienced schedule. Whatever forces shape the future, I don't think it will go like Boeing.

ASML was arguably successful by willing to have a long term view on finance and engineering. It had a decade long trough and absorbed billions in investments which in the Valley would have had all investors pull the plug long before success. Indeed, ASML acquired and made good out of businesses which the Valley was happy to see go in fire sales. No, the current European hi-tech cluster does not need or deserve to be compared to the Valley. It succeeds by patient depth in engineering while the Valley investment in hardware shrank almost to zero, and even now is not really touching on the fundamentals, just looking for a hot-take on some AI chip or whatever.
 
The old Boeing or the new? Before or after they knuckled under the need to have a significant subcontractor in every significant market due to the high level of political intervention in fleet sales? Oh right, that is pretty much the transition we face now, though ASML does not have the equivalent of Airbus to magnify the leverage of subcontractors.
I was thinking of the new Boeing after outsourcing parts of the airframe, especially the 777 wing to Japan. Airbus isn't that much different, since they also use Spirit Aerosystems for airframe assemblies.
At present ASML seems to have done well in vertical integration of most operations that used to be subcontractors, over time having acquired the twinscan system and transport chassis, the laser sources, and the tin plasma source, while increasing its hold over Zeiss for the high end DUV lenses and as sole customer for EUV. It seems to develop software, vacuum control, trace gasses, water flow, and overall integration.
I hadn't noticed these acquisitions. Doing a simple search, it appears ASML hasn't done a corporate acquisition since 2016. Were there others?
In aircraft terms this is more like Boeing before the 777 and the McDonnell reverse aquisition, when engines were like lenses but all the rest of the airframe was in house under one experienced schedule. Whatever forces shape the future, I don't think it will go like Boeing.
I'm not so sure. I'm sure they're better managed than Boeing though. Boeing seems lost. Seriously... how difficult can it be to keep employees who probably need top secret clearance from bringing miniature tequila bottles into the new Air Force One planes?
ASML was arguably successful by willing to have a long term view on finance and engineering. It had a decade long trough and absorbed billions in investments which in the Valley would have had all investors pull the plug long before success. Indeed, ASML acquired and made good out of businesses which the Valley was happy to see go in fire sales. No, the current European hi-tech cluster does not need or deserve to be compared to the Valley. It succeeds by patient depth in engineering while the Valley investment in hardware shrank almost to zero, and even now is not really touching on the fundamentals, just looking for a hot-take on some AI chip or whatever.
I agree.
 
I hadn't noticed these acquisitions. Doing a simple search, it appears ASML hasn't done a corporate acquisition since 2016. Were there others?
Those acquisitions I described were formational for ASML, between the mid-90s and the teens. Cymer was the last big one, cementing their control of the most viable EUV source.

Nothing like farming out the wing has happened or seems likely to happen.
 
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