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Apple at $1 trillion?

Pawan Fangaria

New member
Sometime ago, Carl Icahn, one of Apple's top 10 investors wished (of course it must be his wish :p) Apple should be valued at over 1 trillion dollar with a price tag of ~$216 per share. That would be a sweet spot for apple, otherwise can it turn sour?

View attachment 13908

Well, today, Apple is the most valued company with a market cap of ~740 billion at a P/E of ~17, which is expensive compared to semiconductor companies like Intel at a P/E of ~14 and Samsung at a P/E of ~9. However, P/E of apple is much lower compared to that of Google at ~26.5. On a market cap basis, the second largest Google has a market cap of ~$373 billion, just about half of apple market cap. So, chances of Apple market cap reaching 1 trillion are debatable. The top most factor against it is that it is already at the top valuation of 740 billion, how much more it can go? However, for a 1 trillion valuation, the Apple P/E needs to just breach the mark of 20 which would be still less than Google's P/E. But investors do not give much importance to P/E. It's the forward growth what matters.

In business terms, Apple has launched smartwatch a new product category. If that can fly like iPhone, then why not? Apple's desire has been that as they tied their smartwatch to work with iPhone only. But will all consumers buy a high priced smartwatch along with iPhone? The talks indicate that very small number of people are inclined to do so. On the other hand, Samsung S6 Edge has smartly challenged the iPhone 6? So, if I were one, I would go and buy a Pebble or any other watch which is compatible with iOS as well as Android and then have either iPhone or S6.

Apple is expected to get into TV business as well, may be by next year? It's yet another competition against Samsung.

As of Smartphones, and smartwatch, it's unclear which way the market will go. But stakes are high, better to feel the pulse before you lose your money. In six months, it can be substantial loss for some people and win for the other people.
 
Based on the very light traffic at Apple stores worldwide yesterday for the first day for consumers to try on an Apple watch, you could conclude that sales of the Apple watch will be tepid. On the other hand it has been reported that some Apple watch models are now 4-6 weeks back-ordered, which could point to pent-up demand. At least one analyst, Raymond James has downgraded AAPL stock.

I'm an AAPL stock holder, so want to see my investment continue to grow.
 
Daniel, It's as expected, mainly because Apple smartwatch is very high priced. They tried to mix jewelry with computing in the watch to up the value. Do you think one would by apple watch edition for $10K thinking that it's jewelry and at the same time s/he has to junk that watch as technology upgrade takes place? Even the normal one is very high in price, I am hearing.

But not to worry about Apple at the moment. Had it that iPhone 6 was going to lose against Galaxy S6, I would say exit Apple stock. But that does not seem to be the case. Not because S6 duo are not up to the mark, but because of a goof-up in Samsung strategy.

When there are S6 and S6 Edge, it's S6 Edge which is getting compared with iPhone. As the features appear, such as all metal and glass and curved screen design in S6 Edge with 5.1" screen with 577 pixels per inch (much higher compared to iPhone), 16 megapixel camera capable of 4K video against 8 mega pixel in iPhone, etc. put S6 Edge ahead of iPhone. People could have switched to S6 Edge, but wait...

What's the goof up? S6 Edge is more expensive than iPhone. That will put people off from switching over to S6 Edge from iPhone. A gap of 6-12 months and Apple will come back with another iPhone to beat S6 Edge. Samsung should have concentrated on keeping the price reasonable and gain the market share at this moment.

That's the reason, the next 6 months are highly uncertain between the battle of sixes.

To me it appears like this at this moment - Samsung is a high gain, moderate risk play. Apple is a low risk, low gain play. So, in net effect one seem to be losing on her/his sitting $ on Apple. It's is not going to $1 trillion value in any near term.
 
So, the point it iWatch will not sell like iPhone and therefore Apple can't reach a value of $1 trillion.

If Galaxy S6 Edge would have been priced at par or below iPhone 6, then Apple share would have even fallen from where it is today. However, that is not the case, so we will have to watch for Apple's new strategy on iPhone, until then the Apple share may stay where it is today.
 
It's confusing, Apple is reported to have booked pre-orders on the first day of about 1 million watches, and they are about to ramp up production. Pacific Crest estimates Apple watch manufacturing to be in the range of 20 million this year. And as per UBS estimates, Apple watch sale will be about 16 million in 2015 and 40 million in 2016.

Does that sound like smartwatch business will push Apple to $1 trillion valuation target?
 
If you take the 16 to 20 million unit estimates for Apple Watch and multiply by $349 (for the low-end Watch Sport) it reaches $5.5B to $6.9B in new revenues for 2015. Apple had 2014 revenues of $182.35B, so adding these Apple Watch revenues into the mix adds 3.7%. So I don't see that increase boosting the stock valuation to $1T, but then again the price of stock isn't always a rational number.
 
If it sustains the sale like this kind of pre-order, then definitely Apple share value will rise. Share price is driven on a perception of growth, not the actual real EPS. One risk is dent on iPhone sale by Samsung S6, which seems to be remote at this time. And if Apple soon comes back with iPhone 7, then they will remain in a bigger game!
 
Here come the competition for Apple watch -
Today Samsung opened the access of its SDK (Software Development Kit) for wearables to global community of developers. This is meant for developing apps for their next generation Gear device. This is Samsung's seventh attempt on watch type wearables. A report is here.
 
Pawan,

Yes, price does matter, and in fact the typical Apple consumer expects to pay more for their watch because it has the Apple logo and history behind it. Remember when Apple tried to introduce a lower-priced phone called the iPhone 5c and how dismal the sales figures were, because it cheapened the brand, luxury consumers want the world to know that their Apple watch is more expensive than others, therefore they have a higher personal distinction.

The same reason that we drive a luxury automobile, like a: Lexus, Acura, BMW Mercedes, Infiniti or Audi.

The economist Thorstein Veblen coined the perfect term for this, "conspicuous consumption".
 
Daniel, I agree there are people who would like to have top notch luxury items. But that's generally a niche market for small number of conspicuous people. However, in case of smartphones, Apple iPhone has a large market at that high price. And you are right, people go for high priced smartphones. If I see the tally between Samsung's recent S6s, there too it's the same story - S6 Edge is selling much faster compared to S6.

So, does that mean that the number of people in the world with larger disposable income is growing? The dichotomy I see here at the same time is that very often we hear about job losses, people's buying capacity decreasing, ... Remember about "Occupy Wall street" movement?
 
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