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Analyst says sell TSM?

"The battleof Waterloo was won on the fields of Eton."... Morris has already told you everything 6 months ago. The FF competition is pretty much done. Samsung will get A9 this year and TSMC will get A10 next year. This is why Morris said TSMC would regain share leadership in 2016. The battle has already moved on to 10nm and TSMC is now in full speed with 10nm. Apple iPhone AP in 2017 is still undecided.​
 
Core M may have been a dud but practice makes perfect and as I think we all can agree FinFETS and sub 20 nm is tough. TSMC and Samsung are going to have very similar issues as Intel has faced. Not sure Intel has solved them all but I'm sure TSMC and Samsung are and will struggle with this over the next year. Not a knock on either company, just a tough assignment. So many new failure modes!
 
a possible change in some of the metal layers already ongoing.
So a few mv could make the heat shoot up. By increasing metal line resistance a bit, we expect to slow down the core & heating process. I wish it could help.
Nevertheless the self heating for finfet will be much more severe because the oxide surrounding the tall fin does not conduct heat. Catching the speed without heating would be a huge enigma for the new era.
 
Some of the reasoning of that article is suspect:

A quick search shows the Exynos 7420 is just a rebranded Exynos 5, which is a 20nm chip, not 14nm. (Samsung rebrands its first 64-bit chip to Exynos 7 Octa | Greenbot)
Production of a 20nm chip does not prove that Samsung is ahead with 14nm.

Here is a full paragraph quotation from The Motly Fool article mentioned above:

"... The report also asserts that Samsung's Exynos 7420 applications processor, claimed to be built on Samsung's 14-nanometer process, has yielded in the range of 60% to 70% during the fourth quarter and is "expected to reach 80%+ in 1Q15." While I remain skeptical that the yields on the 14-nanometer Exynos part were that high in that time frame given other data points, the report seems positive for Samsung. "

Did Samsung Just Gain an Edge on Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd.? (SSNLF, TSM)

Yet per published information, Samsung Exynos 7420 is made with 20nm process and first showed up in the Galaxy Note 4 in 4Q14. Unless the Maybank analyst (Warren Lau) quoted by Barrons knows something that nobody else does publically, i.e. that there is a 14nm variant of the Exynos 7420, the discussion of yield is totally confusing and misleading, is he referring to the yield of 20nm or 14nm Exynos 7420 ??
Exynos is a brand name and Exynos 7 is a model series just as your BMW # series.

The chip in the Note 4 is the "Exynos 7" 5433 on 20nm and has been in mass production since June. The chip in the S6 is the "Exynos 7" 7420 on 14nm and has been in mass production since end of October/start November.

All public information and even that article has no mention of the 7420, because it's not publicly launched yet and won't be unveiled until MWC. There is no such thing as a 20nm 7420.
 
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Exynos is a brand name and Exynos 7 is a model series just as your BMW # series.

The chip in the Note 4 is the "Exynos 7" 5433 on 20nm and has been in mass production since June. The chip in the S6 is the "Exynos 7" 7420 on 14nm and has been in mass production since end of October/start November.

All public information and even that article has no mention of the 7420, because it's not publicly launched yet and won't be unveiled until MWC. There is no such thing as a 20nm 7420.

From Samsung's own website: Samsung Exynos

"Exynos 7 Octa processor is designed to bring advanced features to everyday mobile computing, equipped with four powerful ARM® Cortex®-A57 cores and four efficient Cortex-A53 cores. Exynos 7 Octa uses cutting-edge 20nm HKMG process technology as well as advanced mobile image compression (MIC) technology to deliver the most power efficient performance in the market today."

Correct there is no offcial lauch news or specs for Exyons 7420, fresh speculation goes that it will be 14nm and in the soon-to-be-launched Galaxy S6.
The Strangest Samsung Galaxy S6 Rumor Yet (SSNLF)

Regarding Galaxy Note 4 variants already in the consumer market - baseed on published teardowns so far:
-- Snapdragon 805 (TSMC 28nm HPM)
-- Exynos 5433 (Samsung 20nm) --> the so-called "Exynos 7 Octa" ... but why the condusion (instead of "Exynos 5 Octa")

And interestingly enough, some have called it "5433/7410", under "Exynos 7 Octa" ... so 20nm 7410 would be a predecessor of the 7420 ...
 
From Samsung's own website: Samsung Exynos

"Exynos 7 Octa processor is designed to bring advanced features to everyday mobile computing, equipped with four powerful ARM® Cortex®-A57 cores and four efficient Cortex-A53 cores. Exynos 7 Octa uses cutting-edge 20nm HKMG process technology as well as advanced mobile image compression (MIC) technology to deliver the most power efficient performance in the market today."

Correct there is no offcial lauch news or specs for Exyons 7420, fresh speculation goes that it will be 14nm and in the soon-to-be-launched Galaxy S6.
The Strangest Samsung Galaxy S6 Rumor Yet (SSNLF)

Regarding Galaxy Note 4 variants already in the consumer market - baseed on published teardowns so far:
-- Snapdragon 805 (TSMC 28nm HPM)
-- Exynos 5433 (Samsung 20nm) --> the so-called "Exynos 7 Octa" ... but why the condusion (instead of "Exynos 5 Octa")

And interestingly enough, some have called it "5433/7410", under "Exynos 7 Octa" ... so 20nm 7410 would be a predecessor of the 7420 ...
Still don't see what you're trying to say with that 20nm link. Once the 7420 is out they'll start referring the lineup by their model numbers just as they did with the "Exynos 5 Octa" debacle and the 5410 almost two years ago. The 5410 model name wasn't even up on their site until the 5420 was released half a year later. Same thing with the 5433.

The 7410 is a different chip than 5433 (probably won't see the light of day). Samsung may market the 5433 as a 7 series part but the chip's model is the 5433.

Samsung will increase Qualcomm volumes once the S810 is fixed due to CDMA carriers and modems and no other reason. Everything else will be 7420 based. It will be interesting to see how they'll handle CDMA markets in the first 2-3 months.
 
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Exynos is a brand name and Exynos 7 is a model series just as your BMW # series.

The chip in the Note 4 is the "Exynos 7" 5433 on 20nm and has been in mass production since June. The chip in the S6 is the "Exynos 7" 7420 on 14nm and has been in mass production since end of October/start November.

All public information and even that article has no mention of the 7420, because it's not publicly launched yet and won't be unveiled until MWC. There is no such thing as a 20nm 7420.

Please provide source of the above highlighted claim - or is this simply "inside information" that is only known to a previliged few like yourself ;);)...
 
Still don't see what you're trying to say with that 20nm link. Once the 7420 is out they'll start referring the lineup by their model numbers just as they did with the "Exynos 5 Octa" debacle and the 5410 almost two years ago. The 5410 model name wasn't even up on their site until the 5420 was released half a year later. Same thing with the 5433.

The 7410 is a different chip than 5433 (probably won't see the light of day). Samsung may market the 5433 as a 7 series part but the chip's model is the 5433.

Samsung will increase Qualcomm volumes once the S810 is fixed due to CDMA carriers and modems and no other reason. Everything else will be 7420 based. It will be interesting to see how they'll handle CDMA markets in the first 2-3 months.

The point is obviousdly about tracking their process technology: 20nm Planar SoC vs 14nm 3D FinFET SoC

At least some "Exynos 7 Octa" are currently being manufactured using 20nm (i.e. 5433, 7410...) process technology. And more importantly, when Samsung's 14nm production will happen (and product coming to market with significant performance advantage vs their competition ...)
 
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Please provide source of the above highlighted claim - or is this simply "inside information" that is only known to a previliged few like yourself ;);)...
Samsung Investor Forum 2014 '('English Version')' - Home

We have started mass production wafers in 14-nanometer. So, in 14-nanometer, our progress is well on track, including process and the yields. Here we're talking when I mention yields being on track, this is for a very advanced product. It'll be our most advanced applications processor. Yielding at full specifications targets with all of the characteristics for speed and power as well.

While they don't name/acknowledge it, it's the 7420 they're talking about. This is the same "mystery" chip they showcased at ARM TechCon in early October. Anyway we're just 6 weeks from the official launch so we'll see more then.

PS: I don't know if the 7410 is 20nm, that's just speculation. That chip has no design wins.
 
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Samsung Investor Forum 2014 '('English Version')' - Home



While they don't name/acknowledge it, it's the 7420 they're talking about. This is the same "mystery" chip they showcased at ARM TechCon in early October. Anyway we're just 6 weeks from the official launch so we'll see more then.

PS: I don't know if the 7410 is 20nm, that's just speculation. That chip has no design wins.

Thank you for clarifying for us from the design/system perspective. It's been a very informative and enlightening discussion indeed.
 
Having followed TSM for almost twenty years, I have never seen Morris Chang so happy. I have read his tells and they point to good things. If anything Morris Chang is on the conservative side and his tells point to good things and to me that his has an ace up his sleeve. At the very least I expect the TSM fabs to run flat out. The only thing in question is how revenues and profits fare.
 
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