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China starts large military drills around Taiwan

XYang2023

Active member
“枕戈待旦” originally means resting on weapons and waiting for dawn. It describes being constantly vigilant, ready for battle, and not daring to sleep. It can function as a predicate, attributive, or adverbial in a sentence and has a positive connotation.


Screenshot 2024-10-14 164948.png
 
Taipei, Oct. 14 (CNA) Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) on Monday condemned China for its “irrational” and “provocative” actions following China's announcement earlier that day that it had launched military drills around Taiwan as a “stern warning” to those who promote Taiwan independence.

The ministry “strongly condemns this irrational and provocative behavior and has dispatched appropriate forces… to respond, taking concrete actions to safeguard freedom, democracy and defend the sovereignty of the Republic of China,” the MND said in a statement.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced Monday that it had launched military drills code-named "Joint Sword-2024B," involving the army, navy, air force and rocket force, in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan, as a “stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces.”

The drills focus on sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, blockade on key ports and areas, and assault on maritime and ground targets, according to the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command.

China’s announcement of military drills came four days after President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) gave his National Day address, in which he said China has "no right to represent Taiwan" and reiterated that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are "not subordinate" to each other.

The MND said Monday that the president’s National Day speech highlighted the current state of cross-strait relations and his firm determination to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, while also advocating for cross-strait cooperation in addressing climate change and epidemic prevention.

The MND said it is actually the Chinese Communist Party that is intensifying cross-strait tensions and undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, adding that the military will continue to enhance its deterrence capability and strengthen the resilience of its military force to safeguard national security.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) dismissed the military exercises as an “open provocation” to peace and the world’s democracies, which prove that China’s 2022 “Global Security Initiative” is nothing but “lies.”

The MAC “strongly condemns” Beijing’s actions to harm regional security and "destroy" the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, the agency said, adding that the Republic of China would not “be bowed” or “submit” in the face of China’s military threats.


(By Christie Chen)


 
Are things so bad in China that have to start this kind of activity?

I was there 3 weeks ago and whilst it clearly have the same issues as many places in the world , things seemed OK to me.
 
Thankfully, Xi Jinping and the CMC, know that for the foreseeable future, any real war scenario, lasts less than a few weeks, and does not end with China having a permanent military base anywhere on the first island chain.

Which is their primary military goal.

In the meantime, they’re reduced to saber rattling.
 
Thankfully, Xi Jinping and the CMC, know that for the foreseeable future, any real war scenario, lasts less than a few weeks, and does not end with China having a permanent military base anywhere on the first island chain.

Which is their primary military goal.

In the meantime, they’re reduced to saber rattling.

"According to its Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan's buffer stock of natural gas covers 10 to 11 days, while coal is about 39 days and oil is about 146 days."


"More than half, about 83%, of the electricity is generated from fossil sources, with natural gas and coal each contributing approximately 40%."

"In fact, TSMC alone uses around 9 percent of Taiwan's electricity."
 
Thankfully, Xi Jinping and the CMC, know that for the foreseeable future, any real war scenario, lasts less than a few weeks, and does not end with China having a permanent military base anywhere on the first island chain.

Which is their primary military goal.

In the meantime, they’re reduced to saber rattling.
I am not so sure. If China were to commit to the effort, I think they would win. If it lasts more than a few weeks the US and it's allies would run out of weapons. China would face several losses in those first few weeks but would be able to reconstitute quickly due to it's manufacturing capacity and short supply chain to the theatre. The US would also face severe losses but would struggle in prolonged conventional war of attrition.
 
I am not so sure. If China were to commit to the effort, I think they would win. If it lasts more than a few weeks the US and it's allies would run out of weapons. China would face several losses in those first few weeks but would be able to reconstitute quickly due to it's manufacturing capacity and short supply chain to the theatre. The US would also face severe losses but would struggle in prolonged conventional war of attrition.
China will never risk being completely cut off from the worldwide financial order, in order to fulfill a dwindling dream of world domination.

Hard to dominate when your bankrupt.
 
China will never risk being completely cut off from the worldwide financial order, in order to fulfill a dwindling dream of world domination.

Hard to dominate when your bankrupt.

Bankruptcy isn't something that happens to sovereign nations who can print their own currency. Inflation sure, but China currently is currently facing deflation risks. People said Russia's economy would not survive a prolonged war in Ukraine, but they are somehow getting by with a war economy, have not gone bankrupt, have full employment, and in fact it seems like they are slowing making progress in the Ukraine. Russia does have a fair bit of inflation right now, but their society has shown a willingness to tolerate it. The rest of the world would have just as much, if not more, to lose by cutting China off, if you look at the post pandemic supply chain crisis. Most US companies that rely on China for their supply chain would go bankrupt first. The US would likely face even greater inflation pressure as a result of trying to quickly rehome supply chains.

I think US planners are entirely too optimistic in how they would fare in a serious war involving China.
 
I think you are extremely optimistic.
I think I am more pessimistic than optimistic on this one. I'm certainly not rooting for China or Russia, but I'm trying to provide a realistic view. Should China make a move on Taiwan it would not be a short and decisive US led victory. I don't see how anyone can realistically think otherwise.

The question of if it would happen is another story. I don't think it'll happen in the short term, because time is generally on China's side. They are getting stronger, relatively speaking, compared to the US with every passing year. So why hurry?
 
Interestingly, China has some in-house 5nm designs, supposedly coming from TSMC.

At the 2024 Innovation Technology Day held on 27 July, NIO officially announced its "Shenji NX9031" an in-house developed 5nm ADAS SoC, and unveiled SkyOS, a full-domain EV platform, which achieves deep integration of software and hardware. This move sparked widespread market interest, raising discussions on whether Chinese carmakers' self-developed ADAS SoCs will disrupt the high-level ADAS SoC market.

 
I personally don't understand China's position on Taiwan at all. China says they are opposed to Taiwan's independence and are willing to threaten war over it. What confuses me is that by most measures Taiwan is fully independent. Taiwan has its own currency. Taiwan has a military, and the US and other countries sell Taiwan weapons. For example, F-16 fighters. Taiwan has a different system of government, separate and independent elections, and an independent judicial system. and a completely separate economy. (By separate I mean different laws, banking systems, and taxation.) Taiwan even has treaties with other nations. Imagine if any of these things were true, of say Texas? The entire China-Taiwan relationship seems ridiculous.
 
I personally don't understand China's position on Taiwan at all. China says they are opposed to Taiwan's independence and are willing to threaten war over it. What confuses me is that by most measures Taiwan is fully independent. Taiwan has its own currency. Taiwan has a military, and the US and other countries sell Taiwan weapons. For example, F-16 fighters. Taiwan has a different system of government, separate and independent elections, and an independent judicial system. and a completely separate economy. (By separate I mean different laws, banking systems, and taxation.) Taiwan even has treaties with other nations. Imagine if any of these things were true, of say Texas? The entire China-Taiwan relationship seems ridiculous.
China's Taiwan goal of "forced reunification" (war), is WAY down the list of goals where war is prerequisite.

China’s primary Taiwan goal is to have permanent military base on the island, thus a clear defendable pathway to the pacific.

Without a defendable pathway to the pacific, military supply lines are easily cut off, for any theater beyond the "first island chain".
 
I personally don't understand China's position on Taiwan at all. China says they are opposed to Taiwan's independence and are willing to threaten war over it. What confuses me is that by most measures Taiwan is fully independent. Taiwan has its own currency. Taiwan has a military, and the US and other countries sell Taiwan weapons. For example, F-16 fighters. Taiwan has a different system of government, separate and independent elections, and an independent judicial system. and a completely separate economy. (By separate I mean different laws, banking systems, and taxation.) Taiwan even has treaties with other nations. Imagine if any of these things were true, of say Texas? The entire China-Taiwan relationship seems ridiculous.
China's position is that Taiwan is a rouge province. Imagine the US had a civil war, what was left of the losing party all retreated to Texas to start their own country, and China armed the Texas separatists to the teeth and built a military base in Texas to protect their interest in the Americas. You'd then have something approximating the relationship between China and Taiwan.
 
Including Taiwan, the US has permanent military bases all over the first island chain, from Alaska to Malaysia. China is completely boxed in.
 
Including Taiwan, the US has permanent military bases all over the first island chain, from Alaska to Malaysia. China is completely boxed in.
Do you mean excluding Taiwan? I wasn't aware that the US has any formal bases on Taiwan.
 
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