China starts large military drills around Taiwan

[samwilde]

Nonsense. Japan’s Izumo Class operate F35’s, their Kongo, Atago, and Maya class destroyers are broadly similar to US Burkes. They have a serious blue water navy that can operate far from their own waters and project power. Alone they are a force to be reckoned with for the PLAN.

You have been listening too much to Peter Zeihan. The JMSDF lacks the large oiler ships they would need to properly supply their "carriers" in long distance missions. They have none of the large oilers the PLAN or the USN have. Like the Chinese 45,000 tons displacement Type 901 of which they have four ships.

As for the oilers the Japanese do have, their largest oilers of the Mashu-class have 25,000 tons displacement. The Japanese have only two such oilers. The Chinese have nine such oilers.

With regards to their "carriers" you just have to look at their evolution from the Shirane-class destroyers, to the Hyuga-class destroyers, to the Izumo-class carriers. They are sea control ships originally designed for anti-submarine warfare work by carrying ASW helicopters. The Izumo-class just sprinkles a bit of air defense duties with the F-35B.

 

[DepthFirst]

You have been listening too much to Peter Zeihan. The JMSDF lacks the large oiler ships they would need to properly supply their "carriers" in long distance missions. They have none of the large oilers the PLAN or the USN have. Like the Chinese 45,000 tons displacement Type 901 of which they have four ships.

As for the oilers the Japanese do have, their largest oilers of the Mashu-class have 25,000 tons displacement. The Japanese have only two such oilers. The Chinese have nine such oilers.

With regards to their "carriers" you just have to look at their evolution from the Shirane-class destroyers, to the Hyuga-class destroyers, to the Izumo-class carriers. They are sea control ships originally designed for anti-submarine warfare work by carrying ASW helicopters. The Izumo-class just sprinkles a bit of air defense duties with the F-35B.

Is the JMSDF going to operate in the Persian gulf on it's own? No. They should be able to reach out to the Malacca strait just fine though. And it has an ally with the world's largest navy by tonnage which can more than provide the logistical support, and realistically will be involved in any war which the JMSDF will be.

Japanese F-35B's armed with LRASM's, JSM's, are not just some extension of Japanese air defense.

 

[samwilde]

By the time those Japanese F-35Bs can carry the LRASM the Chinese will have the J-35 in service.
They are still doing captive carry tests with it.
And another thing. It cannot be internally mounted. It won't fit.

 

[OneEng]

"According to its Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan's buffer stock of natural gas covers 10 to 11 days, while coal is about 39 days and oil is about 146 days."

Taiwan vulnerable to LNG supply risks in the event of a maritime blockade

Taiwan relies on LNG for around 40% of power generation Natural gas inventory only covers 10 to 11 days of demand LNG suppliers prep contingency plans Taiwan is highly vulnerable to LNG supply disrupt

www.spglobal.com

"More than half, about 83%, of the electricity is generated from fossil sources, with natural gas and coal each contributing approximately 40%."

Republic of China (Taiwan) Electricity Generation Mix 2024 | Low-Carbon Power Data

View Republic of China (Taiwan)'s electricity generation by source with the latest 2024 data. Compare solar, nuclear, wind, hydro and fossil fuel percentages. Track the low-carbon transition since 1980.

lowcarbonpower.org

"In fact, TSMC alone uses around 9 percent of Taiwan's electricity."

Taiwan Makes the Majority of the World’s Computer Chips. Now It’s Running Out of Electricity

Highly dependent on imported fossil fuels, soon to shutter its last nuclear plant, and slow to build out renewables, the world’s largest producer of advanced computer chips is heading toward an energy crunch.

www.wired.com

Wow. I hadn't thought of it along those lines before.

I am not so sure. If China were to commit to the effort, I think they would win. If it lasts more than a few weeks the US and it's allies would run out of weapons. China would face several losses in those first few weeks but would be able to reconstitute quickly due to it's manufacturing capacity and short supply chain to the theatre. The US would also face severe losses but would struggle in prolonged conventional war of attrition.

You assume that the US would allow China to "reconstitute quickly". In modern war, the first objective is to neutralize the enemies offensive capability. The second objective is to eliminate their ability to make more weapons.

The US weapons can reach any Chinese target anywhere in the world. This is not true of Chinese weapons.

The belief that the US would take the same position with Taiwan is it has with Ukraine is flawed. The average US citizen loses nothing on a day to day basis if Ukraine loses their war. The moment Taiwan is at war, the entire world economy will falter. I suspect such an event might well be the only thing that could bring every US politician into agreement (and more importantly every one of their doners).

In other words, the gloves and handcuffs would be removed from the US military machine to meet the threat and restore the world economic balance swiftly.

 

[OneEng]

here is the thing, if China knows it got a economic nuclear bomb, he's gonna use it if things are against him so badly. As a Chinese, I know that the country is desired for reunite, and its people want it. It's also the best achievement for the party, and a important date to be remembered for the future generations. It has happened repeated over the years over last 5000 years or so. It never changed, Unlike the west, there is only one China, and whoever is the more powerful one always want to acquire the other. It's Chinese people's DNA. And trust me, chinese do not give a shit of being cut off from the worldwide financial order because things are already on the way.

The difference between the past 5000 years and today is that never before has the entire world economy, and therefore everyday peoples lives, been so tied up with what happens to Taiwan.

I ardently hope that the Chinese leaders understand this truth. If they don't, the entire world will pay the price, but perhaps none more than the people of China in the wake of the impending isolation from the rest of the world.

 

[OneEng]

Agreed , the last 150yrs is not the norm.

Its why many still dont understand it.

Might is right is still the thinking of many.

Collaboration or compromise = weak.

I think that those in power in Western Democracies are backed by a metric ton of very very wealthy people. Those very wealthy people are not going to stand around and become poor people because China decided it had the might to take over Taiwan and crash the world economy.

China does not have the might to oppose the full and unfettered might of the Western world. In fact, it does not have the might to oppose the USA in such an open conflict.

I personally believe it is all bluster. Xi surely doesn't want to spend the next 10 years hiding for his life when he could live out his life an an unopposed dictator doing whatever he desires whenever he desires to do it (short of invading Taiwan of course ).

 

[BruceA]

A complicated or very simple situation.

World can’t do without Taiwan and in many ways world can’t do without China either.

Today US and west have mostly decided China can’t have any of the things, advanced chips, advanced tools to make advanced technology nor anything that enables them to be peers to the US.

Put the situation another way if the US was in this position and say Texas was independent and held similar position of economic and technology importance but was a rouge communist county ? There isn’t a perfect analogy what would the US do, LOL

 

[blueone]

Put the situation another way if the US was in this position and say Texas was independent and held similar position of economic and technology importance but was a rouge communist county ? There isn’t a perfect analogy what would the US do, LOL

The US was in a similar position in 1861. The Confederate States seceded from the Union, and a civil war ensued. The only acceptable outcome to the North was complete and unconditional surrender, which is what happened. The Confederacy just wanted independence. It was the deadliest military conflict in US history. About 750,000 soldiers died. No one knows how many civilians died, but 50,000 is probably a reasonable estimate, especially in the Confederate States. The difference between the US-Confederacy situation and the China-Taiwan situation was that the northern states acted immediately upon secession, while China has let the situation fester for decades, and the world became dependent on Taiwan. So now we have an incredibly complex mess.

 

[samwilde]

The US weapons can reach any Chinese target anywhere in the world. This is not true of Chinese weapons.

The Chinese can wipe out any target in the Northern hemisphere they so choose at the press of a button with a nuclear mushroom cloud. Ever heard of the DF-41 or DF-31AG?

The Chinese Navy still has less tonnage than the US Navy, but they have more ships, and most of them were built this century.

The only US military advantages are that the US still has more nuclear submarines than the Chinese, better strategic bombers, and that the US has more experience with actual combat.

 

[siliconbruh999]

The Chinese can wipe out any target in the Northern hemisphere they so choose at the press of a button with a nuclear mushroom cloud. Ever heard of the DF-41 or DF-31AG?

The Chinese Navy still has less tonnage than the US Navy, but they have more ships, and most of them were built this century.

The only US military advantages are that the US still has more nuclear submarines than the Chinese, better strategic bombers, and that the US has more experience with actual combat.

Why are we ignoring ROW if China does this it is against multiple countries

 

[DepthFirst]

The Chinese can wipe out any target in the Northern hemisphere they so choose at the press of a button with a nuclear mushroom cloud. Ever heard of the DF-41 or DF-31AG?

The Chinese Navy still has less tonnage than the US Navy, but they have more ships, and most of them were built this century.

The only US military advantages are that the US still has more nuclear submarines than the Chinese, better strategic bombers, and that the US has more experience with actual combat.

China is inferior to both the US and Russia in the strategic realm, and would not be so foolish as to enter such conflict.

As for US advantages, a single American carrier has more aircraft and can conduct more sorties than the 001, 002 combined. Even the 003 remains inferior with less catapults, elevators, and aircraft than an American carrier. American BMD is world leading and has developed against maneuvering targets which exceed the performance of most actual adversary’s weapons. I could go on, but US advantages are not so few and limited.

By the time those Japanese F-35Bs can carry the LRASM the Chinese will have the J-35 in service.
They are still doing captive carry tests with it.
And another thing. It cannot be internally mounted. It won't fit.

It doesn’t matter that LRASM can’t fit internally, it’s about the fact that a Japanese “destroyer” group has top of the line offensive capability.

 

[OneEng]

The Chinese can wipe out any target in the Northern hemisphere they so choose at the press of a button with a nuclear mushroom cloud. Ever heard of the DF-41 or DF-31AG?

The Chinese Navy still has less tonnage than the US Navy, but they have more ships, and most of them were built this century.

The only US military advantages are that the US still has more nuclear submarines than the Chinese, better strategic bombers, and that the US has more experience with actual combat.

LOL. You think it is so easy to hit the US with a ballistic missile? How's about a US Aircraft carrier? It is laughable to imagine that such a thing is even remotely possible. Surely the recent bluster of Russia and their vaunted Hypersonic missiles should be a warning. These "super weapons" were shot down by Patriot batteries given to Ukraine at a nearly perfect efficiency.

Being a veteran of the US Navy, I can assure you, the carrier groups are not as easy a target as they appear, and are much more potent an offensive weapon than they appear.

Also, being a veteran who happened to spend his Naval career on a nuke sub, I can assure you that the majority of that Chinese "tonnage" would find itself on the bottom of the ocean in the first few days of the conflict .... if not the first few hours.

The best defense that China actually has is the world reliance on products that are either directly, or indirectly dependent on China. One of the big reasons China's economy is struggling so much is due to Xi and his saber rattling that has undermined the previously existing collaborative global economic thinking.

Now, in my executive meetings the talk on any new product is always centered on "De-risking". "Move it to India, Move it to Mexico ..... anywhere but China". This is not a great strategy for China IMO. As you point out, as China has evolved into a major economic power, they have had the money to advance their military capabilities. As those capabilities have now been used to threaten the world with economic collapse (by a war with Taiwan), I think China is going to find it much more difficult to get back to the fire side chats and sing "Kumbya" with the rest of the world again.

Despite my optimism over the US prospects of militarily defeating China (quite easily), such a confrontation would most certainly spell doom economically for the entire world.... but I suspect no countries citizens would suffer more than the Chinese people who, even now, are watching an economic collapse.

China’s Economy Is in Deep Trouble

This week’s disappointing Chinese GDP numbers showed that Chinese economic growth has slowed to 4.75 percent from the very rapid annual economic growth rate during the 2010s. It should be viewed as confirmation that China's economic growth model is now well past its sell-by date.

www.aei.org

I feel that China is attempting to take over Taiwan in an effort to shore up its economy, and in doing so, will instead disrupt the entire world economy, but none more than the Chinese economy. It is a crazy path IMO.

 

[count]

LOL. You think it is so easy to hit the US with a ballistic missile? How's about a US Aircraft carrier? It is laughable to imagine that such a thing is even remotely possible. Surely the recent bluster of Russia and their vaunted Hypersonic missiles should be a warning. These "super weapons" were shot down by Patriot batteries given to Ukraine at a nearly perfect efficiency.

Being a veteran of the US Navy, I can assure you, the carrier groups are not as easy a target as they appear, and are much more potent an offensive weapon than they appear.

Also, being a veteran who happened to spend his Naval career on a nuke sub, I can assure you that the majority of that Chinese "tonnage" would find itself on the bottom of the ocean in the first few days of the conflict .... if not the first few hours.

The best defense that China actually has is the world reliance on products that are either directly, or indirectly dependent on China. One of the big reasons China's economy is struggling so much is due to Xi and his saber rattling that has undermined the previously existing collaborative global economic thinking.

Now, in my executive meetings the talk on any new product is always centered on "De-risking". "Move it to India, Move it to Mexico ..... anywhere but China". This is not a great strategy for China IMO. As you point out, as China has evolved into a major economic power, they have had the money to advance their military capabilities. As those capabilities have now been used to threaten the world with economic collapse (by a war with Taiwan), I think China is going to find it much more difficult to get back to the fire side chats and sing "Kumbya" with the rest of the world again.

Despite my optimism over the US prospects of militarily defeating China (quite easily), such a confrontation would most certainly spell doom economically for the entire world.... but I suspect no countries citizens would suffer more than the Chinese people who, even now, are watching an economic collapse.

China’s Economy Is in Deep Trouble

This week’s disappointing Chinese GDP numbers showed that Chinese economic growth has slowed to 4.75 percent from the very rapid annual economic growth rate during the 2010s. It should be viewed as confirmation that China's economic growth model is now well past its sell-by date.

www.aei.org

I feel that China is attempting to take over Taiwan in an effort to shore up its economy, and in doing so, will instead disrupt the entire world economy, but none more than the Chinese economy. It is a crazy path IMO.

Hitting an aircraft carrier with a missle would be very hard, since they have very good air defenses. But how about instead of a missle you have 10,000 drones with good AI targeted on disabling the defensive systems of the aircraft carrier.

Suddenly naval assets are looking very vulnerable.

 

[samwilde]

You think it is so easy to hit the US with a ballistic missile?

The Chinese do not just have "a" ballistic missile capable of hitting the US. They have hundreds of them. Gearing up to be thousands over the next decade.

How's about a US Aircraft carrier? It is laughable to imagine that such a thing is even remotely possible.

They can hit one with the DF-26 MARV all the way to Guam if necessary. They can spot and track the carrier with their imaging and/or radar satellite constellations.

Surely the recent bluster of Russia and their vaunted Hypersonic missiles should be a warning. These "super weapons" were shot down by Patriot batteries given to Ukraine at a nearly perfect efficiency.

The Patriot also supposedly shot down those Scuds in the 1990s. Until the leaks came out with the actual interception rate.
They cannot even protect Israel 100%, which is a postage stamp of a place to defend with the biggest concentration of air defenses in the entire planet, against Iranian missiles. Israel asked the US to take the Patriot batteries there back. And you think they can defend an area the size of the continental US against Chinese missiles?

How well did the Patriot defend those Saudi refineries from Houti missiles?

Being a veteran of the US Navy, I can assure you, the carrier groups are not as easy a target as they appear, and are much more potent an offensive weapon than they appear.

No other major power tried to sink one yet.

Also, being a veteran who happened to spend his Naval career on a nuke sub, I can assure you that the majority of that Chinese "tonnage" would find itself on the bottom of the ocean in the first few days of the conflict .... if not the first few hours.

The US indeed still has superiority in terms of SSNs. But that will only remain to be the case until the end of the next decade. Afterwards the Chinese will likely start to pull ahead. On their own home turf you would find it to be extremely difficult to control those waters. They have no shortage of ASW assets. And they have the strongest SSK force in the world. They have 45 SSKs.

Their nuclear submarine fleet is still not up to scratch but they still have about as many as the UK and France combined.

The best defense that China actually has is the world reliance on products that are either directly, or indirectly dependent on China. One of the big reasons China's economy is struggling so much is due to Xi and his saber rattling that has undermined the previously existing collaborative global economic thinking.

And yet all the Chinese export embargos have been retaliatory in nature? i.e. they were a response to some prior embargo by the US. So who is being bellicose here?

Now, in my executive meetings the talk on any new product is always centered on "De-risking".

In China the exact same thing is happening. "Delete A". Micron was already banned from sales to the Chinese government or state owned companies and Intel seems to be next in the menu.

And they could do a whole lot worse. Micron has not been banned from sales to the rest of the Chinese market yet.

As those capabilities have now been used to threaten the world with economic collapse (by a war with Taiwan), I think China is going to find it much more difficult to get back to the fire side chats and sing "Kumbya" with the rest of the world again.

You make it seem as if the PRC's intent to absorb the ROC is anything new. When in fact the PRC insisted on this very point as a precondition to establishing relations with the US. The US had to take out its military from Taiwan among other things. Yet now the US has started sending its military to Taiwan once again.

United States Taiwan Defense Command - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Despite my optimism over the US prospects of militarily defeating China (quite easily), such a confrontation would most certainly spell doom economically for the entire world.... but I suspect no countries citizens would suffer more than the Chinese people who, even now, are watching an economic collapse.

And yet the US experiences a lower lifetime and worse child mortality than in China. Higher rates of suicide and drug abuse.

I feel that China is attempting to take over Taiwan in an effort to shore up its economy, and in doing so, will instead disrupt the entire world economy, but none more than the Chinese economy. It is a crazy path IMO.

As if China needs Taiwan to shore up its economy. Chinese GDP is 23x bigger.

 

[Paul2]

Wow. I hadn't thought of it along those lines before.

You don't need microchips during the war, nor the ability to manufacture them, as well as lion share of civilian consumption. As we see now, Ukrainian defence enterprises run off small gensets in between bombings. Military materiel is like 1% the size of what the civilian economy produces. You can fight a few wars off existing microchip stocks easily.

The best defense that China actually has is the world reliance on products that are either directly, or indirectly dependent on China. One of the big reasons China's economy is struggling so much is due to Xi and his saber rattling that has undermined the previously existing collaborative global economic thinking.

I am still getting surprised by the amount of Westerners who bought into "collaborative global economic thinking" while the adversarial nature of the China's economic transformation was already obvious in the early nineties. I am very sure the ultimate target of Beijing is the North America, and becoming the new global hegemony.

The Chinese media personalities were publicly airing thoughts of Beijing elites for decades, and it's not as if Americans lack Chinese speakers who can understand that. I am very sure that everyone close to DC knew that decades ago.

 

[milesgehm]

And yet the US experiences a lower lifetime and worse child mortality than in China. Higher rates of suicide and drug abuse.

Not sure the facts support that. There are thousands of Chinese flying into South America and traveling thousands of miles overland to get into the US. Not much flow in the other directions.



In United States, the average life expectancy is 81 years (78 years for men, 83 years for women) as of 2022. In China, that number is 76 years (74 years for men, 81 years for women) as of 2020.

In United States, approximately 5.2 children (per 1,000 live births) die before they reach the age of one as of 2022. In China, on the other hand, 6.8 children do as of 2022.

n United States, 3.6% of adults are unemployed as of 2022. In China, that number is 5.0% as of 2022.

 

[BruceA]

The US was in a similar position in 1861. The Confederate States seceded from the Union, and a civil war ensued. The only acceptable outcome to the North was complete and unconditional surrender, which is what happened. The Confederacy just wanted independence. It was the deadliest military conflict in US history. About 750,000 soldiers died. No one knows how many civilians died, but 50,000 is probably a reasonable estimate, especially in the Confederate States. The difference between the US-Confederacy situation and the China-Taiwan situation was that the northern states acted immediately upon secession, while China has let the situation fester for decades, and the world became dependent on Taiwan. So now we have an incredibly complex mess.

Complex, no it is very simple, but now the stakes and cost could incredible high as is the winners take, if there is a winner, LOL.

I would suggest the winner is t the west in any of the outcomes but the current statement but the costs to both issues could vary from minimal to huge for both win situations and why it is still a nothing situation, push to hard and China will say enough is enough

 

[hasty2333]

Ironically, Taiwan got threat, but Taiwanese people seem not worry about it. The life, stock market work normal. Not much news covered. BUT, this drill made lots of other countries in possible panic.

very true.

 

[blueone]

Complex, no it is very simple, but now the stakes and cost could incredible high as is the winners take, if there is a winner, LOL.

I disagree, it is complex. Think about it this way... would the US and its allies risk general war over Taiwan if not for TSMC? I think you know we wouldn't, and so does everyone else. If not for TSMC, Taiwan might get annexed like Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, if China was going to do it, and there's be no war.

 

[XYang2023]

I disagree, it is complex. Think about it this way... would the US and its allies risk general war over Taiwan if not for TSMC? I think you know we wouldn't, and so does everyone else. If not for TSMC, Taiwan might get annexed like Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, if China was going to do it, and there's be no war.

I also don't understand the logic for TSMC to keep building advance process fabs in Taiwan. For the sake of avoiding conflicts, they should build those fabs outside of Taiwan. Their argument is cost/margin/share-value but they do not account for a significant cost for the world.