At least not today.
I am in bitcoin .
The cost of transistor is cheaper for every new generation.
OK , maybe not half price.
Just finished "Only the Paranoid Survive", and have a few thoughts about current day Intel
- Thread starter Xebec
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I am in bitcoin .
The cost of transistor is cheaper for every new generation.
OK , maybe not half price.
The competitive moat and barriers in AI are huge as are the ones in Foundry for Intel.
Also in datacenter as well as client AMD is more than a formidable competitor. This IMs the AMD of a decade ago. If anything AMD is the leader.
Intel is second and actually not a close second except in x86 and it isn’t like they have cash and scale to catch up.
Actually Intel needs an unanticipated or unexpected thing to enable a catch up. AMD to bungle a design cycle, TSMC to do an Intel 10nm disaster. Catching anyone in AI is not going to happen unless the whole market disappears.
Pretty ugly for Intel from any and every angle
This is why they were so blinded and failed and missed every opportunity that presented in the last twenty years
If AMD can catchup with Nvidia, it just shows that there is no moat in this space. Everyone can compete. Plus GPU is not ideal for inference anyways.
Intel should focus on AI front and centre simply because this space is large enough to invest in it and get a reward.
For Intel, the objective is first to turn around financially.
You cannot hide the fact that the current GPU based AI is very inefficient.
www.nature.com
The road to commercial success for neuromorphic technologies - Nature Communications
Neuromorphic processors for commercial success require facing challenges in methods for programming neuromorphic applications and deployment at scale. Here, the authors discuss the pathways towards widespread consumer adoption of neuromorphic technology in relation to academia and industry.
www.nature.com
Not just AMD but also Amazon:And has caught up with Nvidia
Let’s check I. What 6months or 6 years ?
@Daniel Nenni, Thanks for your sharing above.
I heard that Nvidia Jensen Huang once gave a speech on a certain occasion... The theme was "Artificial Intelligence", but at the end of the speech, he spoke without a script.
Huang walked to the edge of the stage and said: Before the forum ends, I want to share some thoughts about my partners. He said, we designed the world's most complex GPU chip and handed it over to TSMC to manufacture the chip. Some people asked, how to copy TSMC?
Huang: People see TSMC's advanced process, huge production capacity and amazing revenue/ROE, and think that success can be achieved by funds, policies, cross company collaboration and equipment purchases, but they are wrong (seems it implied: IFS 2.0). I know TSMC and Dr. Morris Chang well. I want to tell you that the reason why TSMC being the real successful one is that there are some things that are difficult for others to copy or even clone.
The first is TSMC's industrial ecosystem (and partners). It is surrounded by countless top material suppliers. Equipment manufacturers, electronic design automation tool developers, and chip design companies like Nvidia. That ecosystem has spent more than three decades in an environment full of trust among suppliers, customers and shareholders so as to have a chance to grow.
The second is their corporate culture (ICIC). I mean an extreme engineering plus creation (= innovation + realization) culture. It is an insatiable (more than paranoid as I was there for more than 10 years) pursuit of technology, and a discipline that unites tens of thousands of employees to commit to customers (e.g. jumping over the fire loop whenever needed). This corporate culture is deeply rooted in the DNA of most employees if not every one. You may be able to build an identical wafer fab & tools, but you cannot copy the hearts of the people inside (corporate culture defined by Dr. Morris Chang).
Taiwan is in a very special geographical location, which has given it a unique business flexibility and resilience to strive for a common goal across the all levels in TSMC. These cultures are integrated into every aspect of their business operations. This is why top-tier customers around the world trust them. Because you know that your hard work designed chip is safe here (I doubt IFS can be really achieving that paradigm in years to come).
My private observation is that TSMC's success relies on "trust" and "creation". Because real leaders can be creating (= innovating + realizing) unique businesses, not imitating others, e.g. IDM.
Disclaimer: All articles of mine post in the website is for independent techno-business analyses only and is not paid for by any of related entities. It does not constitute investment advice. Readers should comprehend this content at their own discretion.
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Haha,let Huawei try it.
With 996 and many Phds from Qinghua, I beg to differ.
Sorry, but I’m in the “not paranoid enough” camp when it came to disruptive technologies/markets, and “too paranoid” when it came to protecting their cash cows during the past 2 decades. They cosseted their greatest strengths (leading edge x86 processors DTCoed with the largest volume leading edge fabs) leaving them vulnerable and unable to capitalize on huge disruptions in the broader semiconductor market (mobile and AI).
As the article and others have highlighted, Intel’s integrated DCTO wasn’t flexible enough to support competitive mobile or GPUs, even after Intel transitioned to 95% commercial EDA tools, while maintaining a non-mainstream methodology and foundational IP approach. I firmly believe that if a LBT-like CEO had stepped in in 2012 or so and forced a more standard foundry-like methodology, Intel would be in a vastly better place today.
MKWVentures
Moderator
First: the world has changed a ton since the book came out. So it is not clear how successful Andy would be. Andy was great at driving leading, successful, companies to dominate and grow and he always knew what intel is not good at.
But the challenges that are relevant:
1) Intel assumed Intel and IDMs would lead in process technology They do not now
2) Intel assumed that the high cost of Intel development and manufacturing would pay for itself. 2x wafer cost and 2 generations ahead works. Its does not now
3) Andy demanded execution and was very intolerant of distractions and excuses.... the failed processes and products would not be tolerated.
The foundry and the mobile question were both addressed repeatedly and in detail from 1998-2021 with the same answer: Intel costs are too high (and intel doesn't have good mobile processes or computer architecture). The correct decision was made every time IMO.... and the correct decision will be made again by LBT in the years to come.
hist78
Well-known member
I started thinking the word "Paranoia" might not be the proper word to reflect Andy Grove's true intention and can be misleading or misapplied. Too much or too frequent of Paranoia is not a healthy situation for a person or a company.
Here is the the information provided by Cleveland Clinic:
Paranoia involves being overly suspicious and thinking others are out to harm you. Feeling some paranoia every once in a while is normal. But severe paranoia can be a sign of psychosis and certain mental health conditions.
Here is the the information provided by Cleveland Clinic:
Paranoia involves being overly suspicious and thinking others are out to harm you. Feeling some paranoia every once in a while is normal. But severe paranoia can be a sign of psychosis and certain mental health conditions.
Types of paranoia
Paranoid thoughts tend to cluster into four subtypes:- Mistrust: You’re overly suspicious of others’ intentions and find it difficult to trust others, even though there isn’t any or much evidence to justify these feelings.
- Interpersonal sensitivity: You tend to interpret others’ nonverbal language negatively. You assign negative meanings to other people’s remarks.
- Ideas of reference: These are false beliefs that random or irrelevant events directly relate to you. They can involve paranoia.
- Persecutory: You believe someone, or something, is mistreating, spying on or attempting to harm you (or someone close to you). You may make repeated complaints to legal authorities. Healthcare providers consider this type of paranoia a delusion.
hist78
Well-known member
"My private observation is that TSMC's success relies on "trust" and "creation". Because real leaders can be creating (= innovating + realizing) unique businesses, not imitating others, e.g. IDM."
A paranoid person is less likely to trust others and, in turn, tends to become less trustworthy themselves.