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Just finished "Only the Paranoid Survive", and have a few thoughts about current day Intel

The strategy is AI which is obvious enough at this point.
The competitive moat and barriers in AI are huge as are the ones in Foundry for Intel.

Also in datacenter as well as client AMD is more than a formidable competitor. This IMs the AMD of a decade ago. If anything AMD is the leader.

Intel is second and actually not a close second except in x86 and it isn’t like they have cash and scale to catch up.

Actually Intel needs an unanticipated or unexpected thing to enable a catch up. AMD to bungle a design cycle, TSMC to do an Intel 10nm disaster. Catching anyone in AI is not going to happen unless the whole market disappears.

Pretty ugly for Intel from any and every angle
 
The competitive moat and barriers in AI are huge as are the ones in Foundry for Intel.

Also in datacenter as well as client AMD is more than a formidable competitor. This IMs the AMD of a decade ago. If anything AMD is the leader.

Intel is second and actually not a close second except in x86 and it isn’t like they have cash and scale to catch up.

Actually Intel needs an unanticipated or unexpected thing to enable a catch up. AMD to bungle a design cycle, TSMC to do an Intel 10nm disaster. Catching anyone in AI is not going to happen unless the whole market disappears.

Pretty ugly for Intel from any and every angle
If AMD can catchup with Nvidia, it just shows that there is no moat in this space. Everyone can compete. Plus GPU is not ideal for inference anyways.

Intel should focus on AI front and centre simply because this space is large enough to invest in it and get a reward.

For Intel, the objective is first to turn around financially.
 
You cannot hide the fact that the current GPU based AI is very inefficient.

 
If AMD can catchup with Nvidia, it just shows that there is no moat in this space. Everyone can compete. Plus GPU is not ideal for inference anyways.

Intel should focus on AI front and centre simply because this space is large enough to invest in it and get a reward.

For Intel, the objective is first to turn around financially.
And has caught up with Nvidia 🫢

Let’s check I. What 6months or 6 years ?
 
Unfortunately, supply versus demand will keep semiconductor costs up. Moore's Law truly is dead when it comes to wafer price.

View attachment 3322
@Daniel Nenni, Thanks for your sharing above.

I heard that Nvidia Jensen Huang once gave a speech on a certain occasion... The theme was "Artificial Intelligence", but at the end of the speech, he spoke without a script.

Huang walked to the edge of the stage and said: Before the forum ends, I want to share some thoughts about my partners. He said, we designed the world's most complex GPU chip and handed it over to TSMC to manufacture the chip. Some people asked, how to copy TSMC?

Huang: People see TSMC's advanced process, huge production capacity and amazing revenue/ROE, and think that success can be achieved by funds, policies, cross company collaboration and equipment purchases, but they are wrong (seems it implied: IFS 2.0). I know TSMC and Dr. Morris Chang well. I want to tell you that the reason why TSMC being the real successful one is that there are some things that are difficult for others to copy or even clone.

The first is TSMC's industrial ecosystem (and partners). It is surrounded by countless top material suppliers. Equipment manufacturers, electronic design automation tool developers, and chip design companies like Nvidia. That ecosystem has spent more than three decades in an environment full of trust among suppliers, customers and shareholders so as to have a chance to grow.

The second is their corporate culture (ICIC). I mean an extreme engineering plus creation (= innovation + realization) culture. It is an insatiable (more than paranoid as I was there for more than 10 years) pursuit of technology, and a discipline that unites tens of thousands of employees to commit to customers (e.g. jumping over the fire loop whenever needed). This corporate culture is deeply rooted in the DNA of most employees if not every one. You may be able to build an identical wafer fab & tools, but you cannot copy the hearts of the people inside (corporate culture defined by Dr. Morris Chang).

Taiwan is in a very special geographical location, which has given it a unique business flexibility and resilience to strive for a common goal across the all levels in TSMC. These cultures are integrated into every aspect of their business operations. This is why top-tier customers around the world trust them. Because you know that your hard work designed chip is safe here (I doubt IFS can be really achieving that paradigm in years to come).

My private observation is that TSMC's success relies on "trust" and "creation". Because real leaders can be creating (= innovating + realizing) unique businesses, not imitating others, e.g. IDM.

Disclaimer: All articles of mine post in the website is for independent techno-business analyses only and is not paid for by any of related entities. It does not constitute investment advice. Readers should comprehend this content at their own discretion.
 
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