fansink
Well-known member
That was my point, though. What goals Intel wants to set are arbitrary. Let's say, hypothetically, that back in 2012 Intel said their goal for Intel 10nm was to go into HVM before 2020. Because Intel launching ICL in Sept 2019, 10nm would have been perfectly on time. Now, anyone hearing that goal in 2012 would think that was a sad and pathetic goal. But as long as it was met, Intel by definition didn't underdeliver. So if Intel's roadmap had 3 derivatives on it, that is their business so long as they deliver on it. Rightfully, nobody would say that TSMC had undelivered on N2 because the PPA uplift versus N3P is minor or because the BEOL process is mostly reused with N3. Assuming all continues to go well, TSMC will have delivered what they said they would.
That is just universally true. Until commercially available products are available, everything is academic.
Yes. But that is clearly not going to happen since it is outside the laptop refresh windows and when Intel normally launches new client products. By the letter of the law 5N4Y was not delivered since no 20A and 18A not delivered by July 26th. You won't hear me argue with anyone on that point, as it is objectively true. But what is also objectively true, is that if we want to go down that rabbit hole, we are being pedantic. To say that Ann's plan to pull ahead of TSMC (which was later given the 5N4Y moniker) was a flop is a disingenuous strawman. The point of 5N4Y wasn't a goal in of itself. It was never about putting checkmarks next to a pretty powerpoint slide and saying "Yay team. We did it!". The point was achieving Intel's aspiration of regaining technology leadership. All that really matters long term is the end goal of tech leadership in 2025. Intel 7, 4/3, or 20A are not Intel's future, nor were they ever going to make Intel's external foundry business a $15B per year company by 2030. Those hopes and dreams mostly come down to 18A and its successors.
By that metric, TSMC also only did 1N4Yc.
This is my point. The arbitrary milestones taken to get to the goal are arbitrary. As long as the final destination is reached, that is what really matters (for Intel's business anyway).
I'm anticipating their success to be a pleasant surprise.