Array
(
    [content] => 
    [params] => Array
        (
            [0] => /forum/threads/will-intel-corporation-buy-qualcomm-inc-s-chip-business.6359/
        )

    [addOns] => Array
        (
            [DL6/MLTP] => 13
            [Hampel/TimeZoneDebug] => 1000070
            [SV/ChangePostDate] => 2010200
            [SemiWiki/Newsletter] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/WPMenu] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/XPressExtend] => 1000010
            [ThemeHouse/XLink] => 1000970
            [ThemeHouse/XPress] => 1010570
            [XF] => 2021770
            [XFI] => 1050270
        )

    [wordpress] => /var/www/html
)

Will Intel Corporation Buy Qualcomm, Inc.'s Chip Business?

Adarsh286

New member
There are talks/rumours that Intel may consider buying Qualcomm, and as a result Qualcomm is planning to lay off 4.5k people this month.

Qualcomm may also be considering to split the company into chip-making and patent-licensing businesses. Here are articles 1 and 2 on the same. Article 1 outlines some of the pros, cons, and likelihood of this happening. The news of layoff has already seen the light of day in article 2. However, on the other hand whether Qualcomm will decide to split or not and whether Intel will decide to buy Qualcomm or not may take much longer to come out.

View attachment 14972
Any information, insights, thoughts, opinions on this?
 
People have made valid observations on Qualcomm's Snapdragon challenges. It is unclear which - or whether a single one - of the said challenges can be addressed by a union with Intel. Power consumption? Android phone ecosystem? Customer relationship (Samsung)? LTE? 5G? No "Sweetness to sweetness married", here, as far as I could see. Can't wait to see how Intel+Qualcomm might spin and sell the unholy matrimony to the investment community.
 
I seriously doubt Intel would succeed with this acquisition, unless the goal is to kill it. Replacing Atom with an ARM based architecture makes no sense whatsoever. That was the whole reason Intel sold Xscale to Marvell, right? The Altera acquisition I understand but QCOMM would be a major folly under current Intel centric management. My opinion.

Moving forward my advice to QCOMM is to go on an acquisition spree like no other. Get into the server business, networking, everything else that mobile enables. My opinion.

LTE2.png
 
Daniel,

I understand where you are coming from but I would not be surprised if QCOM investors were wary of this approach. QCOM's current problems stem [among other things] from the fact that they lost to competition in APU design. What would make us believe that they can compete better in networking and servers? In APUs, at least QCOM had huge advantage because they were the leader in baseband IP and they were able to deliver integrated APU/baseband SOCs and leverage this IP in some other ways. As LTE progress is coming to a halt so does QCOM advantages. Perhaps they could do something in IoT but this one is a weird market with a ton of relatively small sub-markets which makes it very difficult for anyone to carve up any major share. I do not think there is any obvious move for QCOM at this point. This does not mean that they should not try. Selling part of the business to Intel is one move among many but as you said it is not obvious that this would be a good development for Intel.
 
I seriously doubt Intel would succeed with this acquisition, unless the goal is to kill it. Replacing Atom with an ARM based architecture makes no sense whatsoever. That was the whole reason Intel sold Xscale to Marvell, right? The Altera acquisition I understand but QCOMM would be a major folly under current Intel centric management. My opinion.

Moving forward my advice to QCOMM is to go on an acquisition spree like no other. Get into the server business, networking, everything else that mobile enables. My opinion.

LTE2.png

Qualcomm is in trouble, but so is Intel.

First, Qualcomm can not acquire a server maker. There are two real server instruction sets, x86-64 and POWER. I guess SPARC too, to a lesser extent. x86-64 would be really difficult, since VIA/AMD/Intel have it, and VIA isn't even close to making a server chip. AMD would be highly problematic, because they'd have to re-negotiate with Intel to get the x86 license, since the original agreement would be voided. Even then, AMD has a horrible current architecture that simply doesn't work, and it isn't clear how well Zen will perform. Clearly it will be better than Bulldozer though.

QCOM certainly can't buy Oracle, or IBM, so they don't have a clear way to purchase their way into the server market. They are trying to build ARM server chips, but, that's a long way off, and they have no experience with it. On top of that, server customers are very, very cautious about moving to another architecture, so this is a very long term play, and is unlikely to be successful in any case.

OpenPOWER is another possibility, but IBM makes the processors, and everyone else makes other parts. Except for a Chinese company IBM licensed the instruction set to. It's unlikely they'd license it to QCOM, since POWER8 is extremely capable, and far beyond anything QCOM has ever dealt with.

For everything else, other companies are also aggressively going after those segments, including Intel. Competing against Intel is extremely difficult, not because their products are very good, but because they need to keep their fabs busy, and will price very aggressively to make that happen. So, good luck there.

For Intel, it might make sense because they need to keep their fabs busy, and QCOM could. Except, we already see how long it has taken to move their Infineon IP to their own fabs. Plus, Intel's 14nm is a dog, with current high-end processors overclocking at least 300 MHz lower than the 22nm node. Also, with Apple making 92% of the phone profits, and Samsung making 15%, clearly the companies making the money make their own CPUs.

Sure, QCOM has importance in modems, but that's getting to be more of a commodity for 4G. Also, Intel is in that market as well, making the overlap problematic. As mentioned, moving it to Intel's fabs, keeping mind the glacial pace that company operates at, would be slow as to make it unimportant. Most likely, Intel would kill it, since they have their own technology on their own fabs.

I don't see it. Two sick companies don't make a strong one. I'd stay away from both. TSMC makes much more sense if you're looking at companies around that market cap.
 
To acquire QCOM Intel will need to convince its shareholders that the combined operation is worth $260-280 billion. They will also have to convince regulators to accept an LTE monopoly. To overcome these hurdles they will need to persuade people, customers as well as shareholders, that the integration of the two companies will be smooth and successful. What odds would you give them? Evens? 10:1? 100:1?

If Qualcomm splits the chip design business is clearly vulnerable and, therefore, in play and up for grabs. But without QCT what would Intel do with it? Close it down and/or put Atom cores into Snapdragon? Become an ARM partner?

I would look forward to the answers.
 
Considering the Infineon Wireless precedent, one would think even a 100:1 odds will only be for speculators of a mighty sunny disposition, and stiff nerves.
 
Qualcomm should have acquired Broadcom but they let it go to Avago.
There are quite a lot of smaller targets for networking/connectivity that would be good targets too.

I agree with Daniel that the best way up is to acquire good targets that extend their market reach into adjacent businesses. Security would also be a good area of investment. How about acquiring NXP/Freescale combination ? it would get them into not only security but also Automotive which is a great business with much smoother cycles than mobile. Around the Zeroth effort, they could also acquire a few good AI/Deep Learning targets which would allow them to enter emerging smart sensors analytics and even big data analytics markets. Again, the key would be to acquire "good" targets not necessarily hyped up targets.

NXP would also give them an example of what a focused management can do. Qualcomm has been all over the place, wasting money on fancy initiatives that go nowhere (they digital TV effort was a joke for example, and there are others). This lack of focus and this strategic extravagance is the reason for the announced layoffs. They hired way too many people, doing way too many things, wasting way too much money. One day, reality bites you in the rear end. In Semiconductors, you can't pretend to walk on water for too long.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Plus, Intel's 14nm is a dog, with current high-end processors overclocking at least 300 MHz lower than the 22nm node.

Is this right? I have searched for corroboration but the figures I have seen suggest that Broadwell overclocks 300 MHz higher than Haswell, not the other way round.

Is this a significant metric? If so i would agree it seems unimpressive given the size of the shrink. It is the first time, however, I have seen it suggested as important.

If 14nm is a dog, despite the supposed 50% geometric advantage over TSMC's 16ff, and 10nm is delayed in 2017 by at least two quarters the scenario painted for Intel is problematic. As always, however, the question is who or what does one believe?
 
I seriously doubt Intel would succeed with this acquisition, unless the goal is to kill it. Replacing Atom with an ARM based architecture makes no sense whatsoever. That was the whole reason Intel sold Xscale to Marvell, right? The Altera acquisition I understand but QCOMM would be a major folly under current Intel centric management. My opinion.

Moving forward my advice to QCOMM is to go on an acquisition spree like no other. Get into the server business, networking, everything else that mobile enables. My opinion.

LTE2.png

Why MediaTek is not in this graph? Thanks.
 
Is this right? I have searched for corroboration but the figures I have seen suggest that Broadwell overclocks 300 MHz higher than Haswell, not the other way round.

Is this a significant metric? If so i would agree it seems unimpressive given the size of the shrink. It is the first time, however, I have seen it suggested as important.

The metric has to be evaluated in conjuction with the average IPC (instruction per clockcycle) number to now it's significance.
 
This is a very good start:

Qualcomm (QCOM -0.5%), via its Atheros Wi-Fi/connectivity chip unit, is buying DSL modem/infrastructure IC and home network processor vendor Ikanos (NASDAQ:IKAN) for $2.75/share, or roughly $47M based on Ikanos' Q2 diluted share count. The price represents a 57% premium to Ikanos' Wednesday close. The deal is expected to close by year's end.
 
14 nm

The metric has to be evaluated in conjuction with the average IPC (instruction per clockcycle) number to now it's significance.
Thank you for this. I can't pretend to understand most of the material I have read looking at the IPC comparisons but I have noticed a number of people who do understand saying they will not upgrade to Broadwell. This reflects what Skaugen has let slip about his OEMs waiting for Skylake. Not quite enough to draw the conclusion that 14nm is a "dog" but an indication of disappointment. I don't suppose it will ever be possible for me to find out why Intel's vast expenditure on a reduction in geometry at 14nm has so far yielded small results but it does look as if they are in a hole. If so the last thing they should do is dig, which is my view of an acquisition spree. No amount of businesses bought will compensate them for losing control of Moore's Law and the problems taken on will distract them from the fundamentals of becoming a market facing and customer service orientated parts manufacturer. Another way of saying the same thing is that Tick Tock (now Tick Tock Tock) is production led marketing, which is no marketing at all, just an attempt at enforcement of monopoly.
 
Another way of saying the same thing is that Tick Tock (now Tick Tock Tock) is production led marketing, which is no marketing at all, just an attempt at enforcement of monopoly.

I don't buy that. You can't keep a monopoly only on marketing talk alone. You get a monopoly because your product is better or some other anti-competitive abuse of your market share. The latter which Intel has done in the past and been convicted for - but just talking about Tick Tock or Tick Tock Tock is not one of them.
 
I don't buy that. You can't keep a monopoly only on marketing talk alone. You get a monopoly because your product is better or some other anti-competitive abuse of your market share. The latter which Intel has done in the past and been convicted for - but just talking about Tick Tock or Tick Tock Tock is not one of them.
Fair enough, but what they do not do is ask their customers/prospective customers what they want. Compare the Tick Tock strategy to the answer Morris Chang gave to the question, "What are the assumptions on which you have based your capex?". He replied, (I am paraphrasing) "I would have to ask 50 people to tell me the assumptions on which they based their plans". Intel spends its capex on a Tick Tock basis, with the objective of staying in the "lead" , spends $2 billion pa as a parts manufacturer on advertising/spin, when Apple as a consumer business spends 25% of that number, and expects the market to beat a path to its door.

ARM never starts a project (seven years before it can reach the consumer) unless at least three people say they want it. The rest of the industry seems to me to operate in the same way, except of course the B2C businesses. Intel got its monopoly by out manufacturing everyone about 20 years ago. In my view the semiconductor industry is becoming like every other. The king is or will be the consumer. Intel does not own the consumers any more and does not know how to talk to Apple and Samsung. My opinion only of course.
 
The king is or will be the consumer. Intel does not own the consumers any more and does not know how to talk to Apple and Samsung.

Intel does own the cloud infrastructure business; so customers are indirectly using it via the Apple, Google, Facebook, ... services.
Questions I see:

  • At which node will this business alone not be enough to fill a fab ?
  • Will Intel sell enough other products like SoCs, FPGAs etc. at that time to fill the fab ?
  • Will ARM 64-bit servers really take market share from the Intel server business ?
Personally I do think Intel has a few years left to turn the ship or before they really will get into trouble.
 
Intel

Intel does own the cloud infrastructure business; so customers are indirectly using it via the Apple, Google, Facebook, ... services.
Questions I see:

  • At which node will this business alone not be enough to fill a fab ?
  • Will Intel sell enough other products like SoCs, FPGAs etc. at that time to fill the fab ?
  • Will ARM 64-bit servers really take market share from the Intel server business ?
Personally I do think Intel has a few years left to turn the ship or before they really will get into trouble.

You ask all the right questions and this discussion could go on forever. I also agree that in the next "few" years the answers will emerge. Right now however I see no sign of the helm being put to port or starboard. I don't believe they can buy the market share they need by acquisitions, and certainly Altera and its FPGAs are not big enough, and I have been watching their threatened invasion of smartphones for three/four years (as have many other ARM shareholders judging from the way those shares behave). They have got to make the SoC they can show to, say, Sony or LG and say, "You have got to buy this if you want to stay with Apple/Samsung." The prospect of this has receded with with failure to turn geometry into performance at 14nm and the delay to 10 and I do not think they can do it unless their internal organisation is turned upside down to give the SoC absolute priority. Just my view of course but the only reason I can see for the SoC's absence is the fact they have made it play second fiddle to the CPU.

Smartphone SoCs are predicted by Gartmore/IDC to reach 2 billion this decade. PCs are still declining (at around 300 million) and being cannibalised. Server numbers are still behind PCs. The only market that can finance a new node every 18 months is smartphones, which is what Apple looks like driving. I see the handheld computer replacing PCs for almost all consumer and many business functions and Apple will integrate iPhones and Macs so that switching use between the two is seamless.

In the server market ARM says it will get 20% by 2018. Who knows? ARM however knows what its "partners" are aiming at three years ahead as their licenses require the licensors to share market information.

There is also IOT, which is growing at a CAGR well north of 20%. Intel is declaring 5%.

We shall see. I look at Intel in much the same way as IBM 20 years ago, after its extraordinary blunder of losing control of DOS. Trouble is relative.
 
Last edited:
We shall see. I look at Intel in much the same way as IBM 20 years ago, after its extraordinary blunder of losing control of DOS. Trouble is relative.

Anybody who thinks I am an Intel proponent does not know me well; in general I don't like bullies and sympathize with the underdogs. In the AMD Opteron days, when Intel - despite it's technology lead - was out-designed by AMD I was really hoping/thinking AMD would crush Intel in the CPU market. History has shown otherwise.
I do see that the situation now is different with the ARM SoCs. They won't go away anytime soon and the whole ARM + foundry + fabless ecosystem will be able to give more structural competition than AMD ever could do. But at the moment I don't see enough proof yet that Intel is really in big trouble to believe they won't be able to in the end compete in the SoC business. It's just a reflex to not being disappointed again.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Anybody who thinks I am an Intel proponent does not know me well; in general I don't like bullies and sympathize with the underdogs. In the AMD Opteron days, when Intel - despite it's technology lead - was out-designed by AMD I was really hoping/thinking AMD would crush Intel in the CPU market. History has shown otherwise.
I do see that the situation now is different with the ARM SoCs. They won't go away anytime soon and the whole ARM + foundry + fabless ecosystem will be able to give more structural competition than AMD ever could do. But at the moment I don't see enough proof yet that Intel is really in big trouble to believe they won't be able to in the end compete in the SoC business. It's just a reflex to not being disappointed again.
Thank you for the discussion. I do not think we are that far apart.
 
Back
Top