– AMAT has OK Q but horrible guide as China & Leading edge drop
– China finally chokes on indigestion & export issues -$500M hit
– TSMC trims on fab timing causing leading edge to slow -$500M hit
– Cycle which had slowed to single digits has rolled over to negative
Tag: asml
Is a Semiconductor Equipment Pause Coming?
– Lam put up good numbers but H2 outlook was flat with unknown 2026
– China remains high & exposed at 35% of biz while US is a measly 6%
– Unclear if this is peak, pause, digestion, technology or normal cycle
– Coupled with ASML soft outlook & stock run ups means profit taking
Nice quarter but expected
… Read MoreAMAT has OK Qtr but Mixed Outlook Means Weaker 2025 – China & Delays & CHIPS Act?
– AMAT has OK QTR but outlook below expectations as 2025 weakens
– Strength in AI cannot offset weakness in the rest of the market
– Increasing headwinds going into 2025 dampen overall outlook
– Weakness combined with regulatory uncertainty reduce valuations
Quarter and year are just OK but outlook is
… Read MoreMore Headwinds – CHIPS Act Chop? – Chip Equip Re-Shore? Orders Canceled & Fab Delay
– CHIPS Act more likely to be maimed & cut than outright killed
– Will Legislators reverse flow of equipment to Reshore from Offshore?
– Recent order cuts, Fab Delay & SMIC comments are all negative
– News flow for semi equipment all bad in front of AMAT
CHIPS Act Chops likely to occur under new administration
… Read MoreLRCX- Coulda been worse but wasn’t so relief rally- Flattish is better than down
- Lam put in good quarter with flattish guide- still a slow recovery
- This is better than worst case fears of order drop like ASML
- China spend is slowing but tech spending increase offsets
- Relief rally as the market was braced for bad news and got OK news
Lam has OK, slightly better than in line quarter with OK guide….
It coulda been… Read More
ASML surprise not a surprise (to us)- Bifurcation- Stocks reset- China headfake
- Investors finally realize the upcycle isn’t as strong as stocks indicated
- Industry Bifurcation between AI & rest of industry continues
- China spending risk/overhang finally kicks in
- AI is super strong, majority of chips remain weak- Invest accordingly
ASML simply states chip industry reality that investors have
… Read MoreSPIE Monterey- ASML, INTC – High NA Readiness- Bigger Masks/Smaller Features
– SPIE Photomask -all about High NA and bigger masks
– High NA will ramp very fast & is ramping fast – two already at Intel
– Doubling size of photomask will offset High NA exposure size problem
– Assembling litho tools at customer saves time/money- “Scanner Kits”
Christophe Fouquet
… Read MoreThe Semiconductor Business will find a way!
Embargoes and other fun stuff in the Semiconductor Tools Market
While this post dives into the semiconductor tool market’s Q2 data, it is also about the senseless embargo game currently in place. The post illustration shows what my notebooks look like as embargoes enforce what they are supposed to suppress and are replaced… Read More
LRCX Good but not good enough results, AMAT Epic failure and Slow Steady Recovery
- Lam reported good numbers with slightly soft guide
- Investors are figuring out the up cycle will be slower than thought
- Looks like AMAT won’t get CHIPS act money for Epic facility
- Steady improvement but stocks still ahead of themselves-Correction?
Lam reports good numbers (as usual) but guide not good enough
Lam reported… Read More
Podcast EP238: Intel Capital’s Focus on Improving the Future of Semiconductors with Jennifer Ard
Dan is joined by Jennifer Ard, Intel Capital Managing Director and Head of Investment Operations. In her role, Jen is responsible for managing Intel Capital’s investment-related operations. Additionally, she is primarily focused on investing in silicon-related companies and has been involved in multiple deals including… Read More