TSMC to double 16nm chip production?

[Daniel Nenni]

A report from Chinese Economic Daily News says that TSMC will double 16nm capacity to 80k wafers this month. TSMC will report the revenue growth on the Q1 2016 conference call. This supports TSMC's claim that they will have dominant foundry FinFET market share in 2016.

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According to CC Wei on the Q4 2015 conference call:

Now 16-nanometer. We have successfully rent-up the production of 16-nanometer starting third quarter last year with very faster pace. Manufacturing industry such as a yield and cycle time was achieved $3 million to $4 million sooner than our 20-nanometer node and are ahead of 10.

In addition to 16 FinFET class, in first quarter last year we have completed the development of 16 FSC, that will power and total cost version for the 16-nanometer process.

TSMC's 16 FSC incorporate the process simplification and as you know optical string for further by cost reduction. It also shares shifting FF+ so customer can directly transfer their product to 16 FSC.

As a result, we expect 16 FSC will enter volume production in this quarter. Our customer accelerated their technology migration into 16-nanometer node, we anticipate a significant demand drop in 20-nanometer in 2016. However, we also expect a continual rent-up of 16-nanometer this year and expect to contribute more than 20% of wafer revenue in 2016.

We estimate our foundry market segment share of 16, 14-nanometer node increases from about 40% in 2015 to above 70% in 2016 exceeding the previous prediction we made in mid-2014.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSM) CEO Mark Liu on Q4 215 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha


Congratulations to the hard working people at TSMC! We should hear more about this at the TSMC 22nd Annual Technology Symposium on March 15th. I will be there and wrote more after that.

 

[dwisehart]

What is "optical string for further cost reduction"?

 

[Daniel Nenni]

What is "optical string for further cost reduction"?

Good question, I have no idea, let me check.

 

[Daniel Nenni]

What is "optical string for further cost reduction"?

It is "optical shrink". I was duped by Seeking Alpha transcripts yet again. Sorry. Here is what TSMC actually said:

Now 16-nanometer. We have successfully ramped up the production of
16-nanometer starting third quarter last year with very fast pace.
Manufacturing indices, such as the yield and cycle time, were achieved three to four
months sooner than our 20-nanometer node and are ahead of plan.

In addition to 16-FinFET Plus, in fourth quarter last year we have completed
the development of 16-FFC, the low-power and low-cost version for
the 16-nanometer process.

TSMC's 16-FFC incorporates the process simplification and optional optical
shrink for further die cost reduction. It also shares the same design rule
with 16-FF Plus, so customer can directly transfer their product to 16-FFC.
As a result, we expect 16-FFC will enter volume production in this quarter.

As customer accelerated their technology migration into 16-nanometer node,
we anticipate a significant demand drop in 20-nanometer in 2016.
However, we also expect a continual ramp-up of 16-nanometer this year and
expect it to contribute more than 20% of wafer revenue in 2016.

We estimate our foundry market segment share of 16/14-nanometer node
increases from about 50% in 2015 to above 70% in 2016, exceeding the
previous prediction we made in mid-2014.

 

[dwisehart]

Thanks. That makes a lot more sense.

 

[lefty]

Incidentaly, does anyone think Samsung will come out with an answer to TSMC's 16-FFC?