More information in terms of wafer/month for Intel 18A
Based on leaks, we know the CPU tile is 14.288 x 8.00 mm in size for panther lake.
x.com
Using an online yield calculator, with a defect density of 0.2/Sq-cm (Pat Gelsinger said 18A defect density is 0.4 Sq-cm last month - assumed to be improved by HVM), there would be about 430 useful dies per 300mm wafer (80% yield). If we assume the yield is less, then fab wafer volume throughput increases?
So to get a 150 million dies for notebook per year, you need to run 150mil/430 = 349k wafer/year = 29k wafer/month.
Add Clearwater Forrest to this. So it looks like Intel has at least 1 fab worth of volume for Intel 18A.
We have to keep in mind of the following,
1) All laptop sales in 2025 will not be Panther lake. It will be a mix of Lunar Lake, Arrow lake and even raptor lake based laptops.
2) If Intel gains market share, the number of units can increase 2026 and beyond.
Again this is a quick calculation by someone who is not working with semi industry or semi fab. So this calculation is bound to be full of holes (big ones).
Based on leaks, we know the CPU tile is 14.288 x 8.00 mm in size for panther lake.
x.com
x.com
Using an online yield calculator, with a defect density of 0.2/Sq-cm (Pat Gelsinger said 18A defect density is 0.4 Sq-cm last month - assumed to be improved by HVM), there would be about 430 useful dies per 300mm wafer (80% yield). If we assume the yield is less, then fab wafer volume throughput increases?
Die Yield Calculator,Calculating the number of Dies Per Wafer (DPW)-摩尔云
A powerful online tool for die per wafer calculation using Murphy's model.Calculating the number of Dies Per Wafer (DPW) is very simple
cloud.mooreelite.com
So to get a 150 million dies for notebook per year, you need to run 150mil/430 = 349k wafer/year = 29k wafer/month.
Add Clearwater Forrest to this. So it looks like Intel has at least 1 fab worth of volume for Intel 18A.
We have to keep in mind of the following,
1) All laptop sales in 2025 will not be Panther lake. It will be a mix of Lunar Lake, Arrow lake and even raptor lake based laptops.
2) If Intel gains market share, the number of units can increase 2026 and beyond.
Again this is a quick calculation by someone who is not working with semi industry or semi fab. So this calculation is bound to be full of holes (big ones).
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