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The Wonderland of Intel Stock

hist78

hist78

Well-known member
Later today, Intel will release its Q4 2025 earnings data. With all the recent developments at Intel and across the semiconductor industry, this will be an important event for many investors and industry observers.

While Intel’s stock price has risen to $54.25 and its P/E ratio has reached a stunning 5,427 (according to marketbeat.com, or 5,113 by Google), I want to take a moment to capture some stock information for several companies, including Intel, as of the market close on 1/21/2026.

This is an exciting, remarkable, and somewhat confusing time. In the top 10 P/E ratio list, the only companies I recognized were Intel and Warby Parker (the eyeglasses company). When the famous meme stock GameStop was at its peak, its P/E ratio was “only” 736.5 in February 2024.

We all understand that the P/E ratio is calculated based on the current stock price and trailing 12‑month EPS. It may not accurately reflect a company’s true future. But Intel’s 5,427 P/E ratio does make me wonder whether the stocks of the world’s top 10 companies (by market cap) are simply too cheap to ignore.



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ChatGPT Thinks Intel Stock Will Close At This Price In The Next 60 Days​


Shares of Intel have shown signs of renewed investor interest as the company's push to ramp semiconductor production and expand its AI foundry ambitions intersects with broader demand for compute and deeper strategic positioning versus rivals like Nvidia and TSMC.

Against that backdrop, we ran Intel through an AI price-prediction agent powered by OpenAI's GPT. The goal was to produce a 60-day forecast that blends recent price action, technical indicators, and the evolving story around production scaling, AI contracts, and competitive positioning.

What the AI model is actually predicting​

The agent was fed recent price action and a focused set of inputs to produce a 60-day outlook. At the time of the run, Intel traded at $54.25. For the period through April 16, the model's base-case projection came out to:
  • Average predicted price: $58.50
  • Implied move: roughly +7.83% into mid-April
  • Signal snapshot: MACD drops sharply and RSI declines, signaling waning short-term momentum even as broader demand drivers persist
In practical terms, the AI is saying the most likely path over the next two months is a move upward from current levels, despite technical indicators that have softened.

Intel's resurgence narrative centers on a production ramp at advanced nodes (18A/18A-class technology) and a growing footprint in AI workloads and infrastructure contracts. While TSMC still dominates the pure-play foundry landscape, Intel's fabs, including its Arizona facilities, are now producing volume at competitive process classes, positioning the company as a potential alternative for customers seeking geographically diversified supply.

That foundry strategy comes with challenges, but also margin expansion opportunities. Intel has reorganized its financial reporting to highlight the foundry operating model and set long-term targets for improved gross and operating margins as scale and efficiency improve.

Enterprise demand for compute and AI integration, especially for data centers and custom accelerators, further underpins the narrative. Intel's ramp of Panther Lake processors and AI-optimized products, coupled with expanding partnerships and production capacity, supports the view that demand tied to AI workloads can translate to real revenue growth and improved utilization of Intel's manufacturing assets.

Price action in recent weeks reflects this mix of optimism and caution. Technical indicators like MACD and RSI are soft, suggesting short-term selling pressure or consolidation, but broader structural stories around production scale, AI contract flows, and foundry progress temper outright bearishness.

Think of this AI outlook as a 60-day temperature check.​


The model isn't delivering a long-term verdict on whether Intel will unseat competitors like TSMC or meaningfully close the gap with Nvidia in AI silicon. Instead, it's estimating how the stock may trade while investors parse execution progress, production ramp milestones, and emerging AI demand signals. In this run, the agent tilts slightly positive, a modest rise into mid-April, even as momentum indicators soften.

For longer-term investors focused on Intel's foundry strategy and AI production contracts, this forecast suggests steady support for the narrative, though near-term volatility could persist. For traders, it's a reminder that the next significant move in Intel will likely hinge on fresh catalysts such as clearer visibility into node yields, major foundry customer wins, or updated guidance tied to execution milestones.

 
When Lip-Bu Tan personally bought ~$25 million of Intel stock as part of his CEO compensation agreement, the average price per share he paid was about ~$23.96 per share. Not a bad profit for 10 months. Not to mention his stock options award as the new CEO:
  • New-hire stock option grant: ~$25 million
  • Additional stock option package: ~$9.6 million
  • Performance stock units and equity awards: ~$31.4 million (includes performance and long-term grant values)
 
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