Semis behind dramatic oil price drop

[Arthur Hanson]

Multi-GPU Technology for Energy & Seismic Industry | NVIDIA

http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press_kits/2011/sensingsolutions/HP_Seismic_Sensor_wp.pdf

The semi industry has changed the world very radically in a way many in the industry don't even realize. Mems and advanced Nvidia GPU processors have substantially lowered the price of prospecting and producing oil, vastly increasing the available supply. This has led to a fifty percent price drop in the space of one year. This comes with unintended consequences of many countries pushed to the brink of financial collapse and many US states going from boom to recession and the game hasn't even played out yet. The consumer is benefiting in lower prices, but will suffer as the social and business world go through multiple shocks few see and even less are prepared for. Our social systems aren't even close to adapting to the accelerating rate of change, the tech industry, of which the semi industry is one of the pillars if not the foundation have set in motion. Semis are set to permeate every facet of the world we live in.
Shocks, good and bad, are going to come progressively faster and closer together as not only the pace of Semis of all types advance at a blistering rate in technology, but in adoption. This presents untold opportunities and dangers, but this change in the oil market is just the first of many. I feel a new field of specialists will evolve to guide people, companies and political constructs through this age of ever accelerating change that is just really beginning. Thoughts and comments welcome, especially about other dramatic changes we might see in the next two years.

 

[astilo]

So you are suggesting me to keep my teleport patent in the drawer for the sake of the human beings

 

[Arthur Hanson]

astilo, Glad you asked. I'm a fan of moving as fast and quickly as we can. The problem is special interests that are going to be displaced will do everything to hold back progress or coopt it for their own special purposes. There is no shortage of resources, just resources of our choice. The same is true of energy. As a society we have never had as many options as we have today. In almost every field there are ways of improving quality and lowering costs, but many people and organizations are desperate to maintain the status quo. As I said in the conclusion, a whole new field will be created in many industries to manage the accelerating change. It will involve a mix of strategy, finance, educational, integration and implementation skills and some I haven't even considered yet. Human nature will be the hardest part to deal with for many organizations, unions, companies and other social constructs will want to control and even hold progress back as we have seen throughout human history. People and organizations that can master and embrace the fast coming changes, rather than fight or stifle them will be the winners and benefit society as a whole. There are many challenges and opportunities out there and most haven't even been discovered yet. Let's enjoy the challenges and embrace them.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

astilo, did you ever see the movie or read the book "The Man Who Fell to Earth"? Humor, but there is some reality to it, ART

 

[Daniel Payne]

Arthur, yes the free market economy that we operate in does have rapid changes which create boom and bust cycles, just like the semiconductor industry itself. We cannot prevent all of these swings, however we can learn and then quickly adapt.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

I wish we had a true free market economy, we have a hybrid of it, but that's a long subject in itself. For a major country our system isn't good, but it's sure a lot better than everything else.

 

[Arthur Hanson]

After some careful thought, in most areas the US does not have a free market, but a hybrid of special interests and regulation. The semiconductor market and much of the high tech hardware market is very close to a free market. Imagine if medical, utilities, government services or other regulated areas lowered costs and improved results at the rate of the high tech sector, the world would be a much better place.