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Nvidia suffers a major blow from China

Daniel Nenni

Admin
Staff member
Nvidia is in the middle of the US trade war with China, and as the conflict progresses, it is finding its position in China's huge market increasingly troubled.

Earlier this year, US government restrictions on selling artificial intelligence chips to China prevented Nvidia from selling its H20 chip within China, forcing the company to take a $4.5 billion write-off for unsold chip inventory in the fiscal first quarter.

In August, Nvidia made a deal with the US government to remove restrictions on selling its less advanced artificial intelligence chips to China. The company agreed to pay the government 15% of its revenues from chip sales to China.

Following this export tax deal, Chinese authorities have warned local companies against using foreign AI chips, with a special focus on Nvidia's H20 chips.

The problems for Nvidia don't end there. Trade negotiations are ongoing, and China has an ace up its sleeve.

Nvidia chips take crossfire from US - China trade war.Image source: Shutterstock

Nvidia chips take crossfire from US - China trade war.Image source: ShutterstockNvidia Q2 revenue grows 56% to $46.7 billion year over year

On August 27, Nvidia NVDA reported its results for Q2 of fiscal 2026.
Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, said that Blackwell Ultra manufacturing is picking up at full speed and that "demand is extraordinary." No H20 chips were sold to China-based customers in the second quarter. The company stated that it benefited from a $180 million release of previously reserved H20 inventory and approximately $650 million in unrestricted H20 sales to a customer outside of China.

Here are the earnings highlights:
- Revenue grew 56% to $46.7 billion year-over-year
- Gross margin of 72.4% compared to 75.1% in Q2 FY 2025
- Gross profit of $33.9 billion, an increase of 50% YoY
- Net income of $26.4 billion, an increase of 59% YoY
- Diluted earnings per share of $1.08 compared to $0.67 in Q2 FY 2025
  • Nvidia provided an outlook for Q3 of fiscal year 2026:
  • - Revenue is expected to be $54.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.
  • - Gross margin is expected to be 73.3% plus or minus 50 basis points.
  • - Operating expenses are expected to be approximately $5.9 billion
  • - The company has not assumed any H20 shipments to China in the outlook.

  • China finds Nvidia violated antitrust regulations
  • Beijing launched an investigation in December 2024 into Nvidia's acquisition of Mellanox. China approved the acquisition in 2020, on the condition that Nvidia not discriminate against Chinese companies.
China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) conducted a preliminary investigation and found that Nvidia was in violation of antitrust regulations as it didn't fully comply with the conditions set in the acquisition of Mellanox.

The regulator will investigate the company further, and it didn't define what kind of amendments it would require from Nvidia.

SAMR's announcement coincides with US and Chinese officials trade negotiations in Madrid. According to the Financial Times sources, SAMR reached its conclusion weeks before the announcement, and timed the release of the investigation report to give China better leverage in the trade talks.

Citi cuts Nvidia price target
Nvidia needs these trade talks to go well, as the stock will likely lose value if it gets fined by SAMR.

The company's Q2 data center revenue missed analyst estimates for the second straight quarter, which has affected the stock's recent performance. Citi analyst Atif Malik recently lowered his price target on Nvidia to $200 from $210 while maintaining a buy rating.

"Malik said Nvidia's dominance in AI chips is coming under pressure as rivals push their own custom processors, pointing to Broadcom (AVGO), which recently reported strong quarterly results and disclosed a $10 billion order for its XPUs, the company's next-generation custom accelerators," writes Silin Chen for TheStreet.

Let's hope the trade talks go well, for they will have a huge impact, as China is also launching an investigation into antidumping, regarding a type of semiconductor made by US companies such as Texas Instruments, reported Bloomberg.

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Sep 16, 2025, where it first appeared in the Technology Business News section.
 
The company's Q2 data center revenue missed analyst estimates for the second straight quarter, which has affected the stock's recent performance. Citi analyst Atif Malik recently lowered his price target on Nvidia to $200 from $210 while maintaining a buy rating.

"Malik said Nvidia's dominance in AI chips is coming under pressure as rivals push their own custom processors, pointing to Broadcom (AVGO), which recently reported strong quarterly results and disclosed a $10 billion order for its XPUs, the company's next-generation custom accelerators," writes Silin Chen for TheStreet.
Malik needs to get a life, and do better research. The so-called $10B XPU order for Broadcom is for rack systems that include the XPUs, not just for XPUs.
 
Why is China busting Nvidia?
I see two possibilities:

1. They think NVLink, which is now only integrated into Nvidia GPUs, has something to do with the Mellanox acquisition, which it doesn't. Nvidia used to support NVLink port integration into IBM Power CPUs, but no longer does. (Power 8 & 9 CPUs had integrated NVLink ports.) If this is the case, the Chinese are really fishing for something to hurt Nvidia with. Mellanox only does Ethernet and InfiniBand, which are industry specifications.

2. China just wants to hurt one of the most important US companies as much as possible, and threatening Mellanox is the best thing they could think of. I think the Chinese know this is dumb, but they're mad at the US for chip-related embargoes, so anything goes to get attention.

I think the Chinese are too smart to be embarrassed by tripping over themselves with possibility (1), so I think it's (2).
 
I also think the article's title is clickbait. Whatever China does is not much of "major blow" to Nvidia anytime soon. Nvidia can't sell the best they have in China anyway, and the Chinese government threatens companies who use their products.
 
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Huawei cannot survive with Nvidia as a competitor.
China sees Huawei’s chip breakthrough as the only way for China to break free from the United States.
I don't agree. There are other ways to build AI training and inference systems than Nvidia.
 
Why is China busting Nvidia? Jensen kissed the China ring. Maybe it is because he also kissed the US ring? Seriously, why?

Nvidia Vows Cooperation As China Probes $7 Billion Mellanox Deal​



It's a combo of tit-for-tat with the US-China trade war, but also because China has the overarching 'build and use domestic compute' edict going on. This is a balanced response of not totally blocking Nvidia from the market, but also weakening it's position slightly so domestic makers have a leg up without needing as much subsidy.

This probably has nothing to do at all with Jensen.
 
I don't agree. There are other ways to build AI training and inference systems than Nvidia.
I am talking about the real numbers.
Huawei currently dominates the AI hardware market in China. This is only because there's no other solution.
 
There are technically alternatives (agreed), but are any actually in use in $100M or larger installations?
Yes there are. Google TPUs and Amazon Trainium and Inferentia. If Amazon and Google can design chips like this, so can the Chinese.
 
I am talking about the real numbers.
Huawei currently dominates the AI hardware market in China. This is only because there's no other solution.
Agreed, but Huawei can develop alternatives. They will probably not be as good at the chip level as Nvidia's, but system and software architecture can be important sources of innovation that can close gaps. Demand and money are remarkable enablers of innovation, but you know that.
 
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