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Not everyone buying that driverless cars are almost here

B

Bernard Murphy

Moderator
Last edited:
I'm not convinced that truly driverless cars is Google's corporate intent. Driver assisted cars is a much more commercially viable option. Once we all get used to driver assisted maybe completely autonomous cars will be accepted into main stream society but we have a long way to go.

How long will it take for electric cars to be the norm? Autonomous cars will take that long plus sum I would guess.
 
Yes, partially automated cars are more viable. But Google have tried doing partial driving(automated driving but you must stay alert , just in case of problems, and you'll get a warning) - and they learned that humans are dumb and irresponsible and that would not be safe.

So what's left is either only automated high driving and parking (which everybody has , so Google can build a good business) - or fully automated driving - where Google leads everybody , probably by 5 years.

BTW the rumor i heard, is that in the near future, Google is going to start a business around fully self driving cars , in closed areas(college campuses, military bases , etc ) , with low speed and controlled conditions(maybe only in non rainy seasons).
 
ippisl said:
Yes, partially automated cars are more viable. But Google have tried doing partial driving(automated driving but you must stay alert , just in case of problems, and you'll get a warning) - and they learned that humans are dumb and irresponsible and that would not be safe.

So what's left is either only automated high driving and parking (which everybody has , so Google can build a good business) - or fully automated driving - where Google leads everybody , probably by 5 years.

BTW the rumor i heard, is that in the near future, Google is going to start a business around fully self driving cars , in closed areas(college campuses, military bases , etc ) , with low speed and controlled conditions(maybe only in non rainy seasons).
Click to expand...

I also believe that Asia may be a better place to start with autonomous cars versus the United States. Americans are much more connected to their cars and driving. Just my opinion of course.
 
Maybe some Americans are more connected, but many millennials aren't. And anyway, the market is so huge , there are are many situations where even driving aficionados would prefer to be driven(like bumper-to-bumper on the way to work) , and self-driving could substantially reduce costs and hassle of owning a car, or at the very least , the second car.

My guess is that regulation and mostly politics will be the hardest barrier. Just think about how many people work at driving in china/us. And the other thing - how do you verify something thta in many ways behaves/learns as the human brain for something critical as driving ?
 
Millenial point is a good one. These folks are more into Uber for example, which may indicate a trend to shared usage (Mary Barra, CEO of GM has made a similar point). And that could drive more safety/autonomy features, though perhaps not full autonomy
 
I still say the only pertinent test for an autonomous car is the pick-up or drop-off line at any busy school at rush hour. Good luck. The likelihood of a crash is low, but the probability of gridlock when an automated car stops in its tracks indecisively is high.

After being burned in the sudden acceleration fire, Toyota is big on ADAS but completely bearish on autonomous cars - not a technology problem, but a legal one. IMHO, Google is severely underestimating the legal implications, perhaps why they are firewalling the business unit.

ADAS is already taking off. My son-in-law has a Ram pickup with a backup camera and it is awesome.

Driverless, as others have pointed out, will require a combination of technological, cultural, and litigation changes before they get traction - especially if the government gets involved.
 
Yes legislation would be a big issue. Maybe the right way - politically and legally - would be to start in areas where the population is very open to change(including legal/regulatory sense) ,gather political/popular support there and maybe change local laws. Maybe such zone is silicon valley , maybe some place else.

But once it's proven in such area - and by proven i mean offering decent service, good prices , maybe some adaptation near school zone and some slowness around them due to gridlock(or maybe we'll find some solution) - and most important greatly decreasing accident rates (even without being perfect. BTW it's not such a hard goal, humans are awful drivers).

Once you have that - and you sell it as a package to the next city - but you require a "favorable regulatory/legal environment". i think citizens of many cities would strongly support this - if this prevents lots of accidents.
 
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