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Assuming it would be 18A there is zero chance of them having all the IO needed by an Apple chip on that process. Look how Intel plan to use 18A on their own chips, the 18A is purely logic and then the IO (and SRAM) is on a Intel3 substrate. In principle that could interest Apple but the difficulty of getting volume production at low prices makes it implausible.
There appears to be no clear information on Panther Lake, and certainly 3 tiles are in the running. You do not need 3D to eliminate the need for advanced IO circuits. 2.5D interfaces can also be done with a single IO phy design for ultrashort throw which is much less complex than a full IO competency.
Hence, the risk is especially high for American fabless companies if Trump decides to get your "attention" by disrupting the Asia supply chain with tariff. Intel could potentially benefit the most, but it requires Pat Gelsinger developing strong rapport with the new White House. But, it's not clear if Intel showed any support to Trump before the election.
US has a substantial trade deficit with Taiwan. In 2023, it was $48B. In 2024, it will likely reach $70B due to strong growth in AI-related semi trade. We can expect the AI-led trade gap with Taiwan to widen further in coming years. Actually, the current trajectory will likely lead to Taiwan becoming the third highest trade surplus nation by 2030 - only behind China and Mexico.
So, the question is not what Apple and Nvidia would or might do. It is a question about how the new White House sees the significance and urgency to address Taiwan's growing trade surplus as well as the geopolitical risk related to Taiwan-based AI hardware manufacturing.