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Intel may have second thoughts about the new fab in Magdeburg Germany

hist78

hist78

Well-known member
I'm thinking Intel may believe that by avoiding to have a fab in East Asia or South East Asia, Intel will be at a better position than anyone else if a war erupts in Asia.

But the danger is Intel might not be able to survive under current high construction cost and high operation cost across all its fab locations before a war actually starts.

www.reuters.com

Intel is committed to Germany chip plant, working with government -exec

U.S. chip giant Intel Corp is committed to building its chip fabrication plant, or fab, in Magdeburg, Germany and is working out funding details with the government, according to Chief Global Operations Officer Keyvan Esfarjani.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

www.theregister.com

Intel may delay building Magdeburg fab slated for early 2023

No longer 'a definitive date' for facility scheduled to be built from next year
www.theregister.com www.theregister.com
 
As the song goes "anything you can do I can do better". My mother used to hum this while she destroyed me playing pool. TSMC is going to show Intel, Samsung, Globalfoundries, etc... how to build a world wide foundry ecosystem. Dresden is said to be next which will talent suck from GF Dresden for sure. Same as TSMC AZ is doing to Intel. Germany will be a good ally for Taiwan. Hopefully India will be next for TSMC since they will be the most populous country in the world very soon, absolutely. The Silicon Shield is real and getting stronger by the day, absolutely.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
As the song goes "anything you can do I can do better". My mother used to hum this while she destroyed me playing pool. TSMC is going to show Intel, Samsung, Globalfoundries, etc... how to build a world wide foundry ecosystem. Dresden is said to be next which will talent suck from GF Dresden for sure. Same as TSMC AZ is doing to Intel. Germany will be a good ally for Taiwan. Hopefully India will be next for TSMC since they will be the most populous country in the world very soon, absolutely. The Silicon Shield is real and getting stronger by the day, absolutely.
Click to expand...
Is the plant going to be automotive related? I am surprised it hasn't been announced already. Who's dragging their feet on this one as you'd imagine Germany would be tripping over itself to get more automotive chip supply up and running on domestic soil
asap. Judging by your comment GF is currently doing automotive in Dresden? I'm curious about how differentiated TSMC and GF are in speciality technologies considering they aren't competing against each other on leading edge in that sector. What do you think will suck people away from GF to TSMC out of curiosity. Sorry for the barrage of questions but as in most things the more you know the more you understand you don't know anything at all!!!
 
Mooredaddy said:
Is the plant going to be automotive related? I am surprised it hasn't been announced already. Who's dragging their feet on this one as you'd imagine Germany would be tripping over itself to get more automotive chip supply up and running on domestic soil
asap. Judging by your comment GF is currently doing automotive in Dresden? I'm curious about how differentiated TSMC and GF are in speciality technologies considering they aren't competing against each other on leading edge in that sector. What do you think will suck people away from GF to TSMC out of curiosity. Sorry for the barrage of questions but as in most things the more you know the more you understand you don't know anything at all!!!
Click to expand...
Apparently TSMC's working towards a plan to set up a 22nm/28nm fab in Dresden for automotive specialty technology. I can't find an "A-grade" source, but Politico EU seems to cite its own sources well. (Daniel posted this in another thread)

<begin excerpt>
In a call on the company’s last quarter earnings, TSMC chief C. C. Wei said that it is “engaging with customers and partners” in Europe “to evaluate the possibility of building a specialty” fabrication plant. It would focus on technology for the car industry, he said, and the building would be dependent upon “customer demand and the level of government support.”

His remarks follow reports from late December that the company is in advanced talks to set up shop in Dresden, focused on 22- and 28-nanometer chips technology for the car industry.
<end excerpt>

A step in the right direction, but nothing about 40/55/65nm, which I guess TSMC is leaving for the traditional automotive companies to cover in their own fabs should they choose to add capacity in this range --- as TI is doing. We'll see who else is; NXP's CEO stated they're not doing anything smaller than 90nm in-house, and from what I can tell, new 300mm capacity plans from Infineon (Villach, Dresden) and Renesas (Kofu) are slated for power semiconductors and analog/mixed signal.

edit: ST/GF are jointly pursuing a 300mm fab in Crolles covering at least the 18nm - 22nm range, not sure about that 40nm-65nm range.
 
In Europe only Intel, ST and GF have fabs for nodes below 90nm. All other 300mm fabs (IFX and Bosch) are for equal or larger geometries devices. It is the reason why IFX, Bosch and NXP are rumored to be those trying to get TSMC here (no A-grade source there either ....).
Would like to be the fly on the wall to see a discussion between TSMC executives and Commissioners Breton and Vestager staff. The culture shock would be hilarious.
 
SPQR54 said:
In Europe only Intel, ST and GF have fabs for nodes below 90nm. All other 300mm fabs (IFX and Bosch) are for equal or larger geometries devices. It is the reason why IFX, Bosch and NXP are rumored to be those trying to get TSMC here (no A-grade source there either ....).
Would like to be the fly on the wall to see a discussion between TSMC executives and Commissioners Breton and Vestager staff. The culture shock would be hilarious.
Click to expand...

TSMC and EU officials have talked several times during the past years. I believe they know very well about each other's positions, goals, and difficulties. The problem is that they need to find the solutions that both sides can accept. Some of those challenges are not even related to subsidies at all.
 
Intel CEO says Italy 'still in the game' for fab but so are other countries

"Italy is still in the game, but so are other candidate countries," Gelsinger said in a translated interview with Il Corriere della Sera. "We are trying to see where. We'll decide within the year."

Gelsinger also confirmed to the news outlet that he had spoken with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He also spoke with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar the news outlet added and may have spoken to the leaders of Spain and Poland, Pedro Sanchez and Andrzej Duda, countries that are also in the running for the fab.

Last month, Meloni said she would meet with Intel to coordinate the semiconductor giant's investment in the country as it looks to expand its global presence.

"In the coming days I'll seek to schedule a meeting, to ask Intel what we can do to facilitate their investment in Italy, which I think is highly strategic," Meloni said at the time.

In August, it was reported that Italy was close to signing a deal that could be worth $5B initially with the Italian government to build a packaging and assembly plant in the country.

www.corriere.it

Intel e la maxi fabbrica, le parole (fredde) del ceo Gelsinger: «Italia? Ancora in partita»

L’Italia è ancora «in partita», dice Pat Gelsinger, ceo di Intel. Niente di più. Mentre dieci mesi fa sembrava la destinazione sicura di un grande progetto nei semiconduttori, ora è solo uno fra vari Paesi candidati ad ospitare una fabbrica da quasi tre miliardi
www.corriere.it www.corriere.it
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Intel CEO says Italy 'still in the game' for fab but so are other countries

"Italy is still in the game, but so are other candidate countries," Gelsinger said in a translated interview with Il Corriere della Sera. "We are trying to see where. We'll decide within the year."

Gelsinger also confirmed to the news outlet that he had spoken with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He also spoke with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar the news outlet added and may have spoken to the leaders of Spain and Poland, Pedro Sanchez and Andrzej Duda, countries that are also in the running for the fab.

Last month, Meloni said she would meet with Intel to coordinate the semiconductor giant's investment in the country as it looks to expand its global presence.

"In the coming days I'll seek to schedule a meeting, to ask Intel what we can do to facilitate their investment in Italy, which I think is highly strategic," Meloni said at the time.

In August, it was reported that Italy was close to signing a deal that could be worth $5B initially with the Italian government to build a packaging and assembly plant in the country.

www.corriere.it

Intel e la maxi fabbrica, le parole (fredde) del ceo Gelsinger: «Italia? Ancora in partita»

L’Italia è ancora «in partita», dice Pat Gelsinger, ceo di Intel. Niente di più. Mentre dieci mesi fa sembrava la destinazione sicura di un grande progetto nei semiconduttori, ora è solo uno fra vari Paesi candidati ad ospitare una fabbrica da quasi tre miliardi
www.corriere.it www.corriere.it
Click to expand...

Is Intel trying to find the best deal and the largest subsidy? Or Intel is trying to find a way to cancel/postpone the EU projects?
 
hist78 said:
Is Intel trying to find the best deal and the largest subsidy? Or Intel is trying to find a way to cancel/postpone the EU projects?
Click to expand...

I think Pat Gelsinger is doing the best he can to expand Intel's reach but he is running out of time and money. He is two years into a five year job, right? Intel is cutting staff, budgets, and projects. Even if Intel gets CHIPS Act money or other Governments money it is not a full ride and that cost will be on Intel's balance sheet for years to come. And if those manufacturing facilities are not running at or near capacity it will be an anchor with a very long rode.

Personally I think the chip shortage from the pandemic is over and the politicians who have lobbied hard for chip money for their countries will be looking elsewhere for campaign messaging, especially here in the US. I have no problem with over capacity as it will keep chip prices down but margins will be hit hard and that will cause a whole host of other corporate problems.

It really is just bad timing for Pat. A down year he does not need and we do not know what 2024 holds.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Well I thought Intel had an age limit for CEOs but I just checked and it was removed in 2021, a month after Pat took the job.
Click to expand...

The modern Corporate America needs someone to blame, for good and bad reasons. Five years is a probably on the longer side in terms of the time expected for a CEO to execute a business turnaround.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
Well I thought Intel had an age limit for CEOs but I just checked and it was removed in 2021, a month after Pat took the job.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Intel used to have age limits for all corporate officers (65), but the BoD would grant exceptions when they felt like it anyway. When Andy Bryant was Chairman they granted him an exception. He stayed in that position until he was 69.

Edit: a little known fact. The oldest board member I've ever heard of is Charles Munger. Warren Buffett's right hand man. Munger is 99, and still on the BoD of Costco. Pretty amazing.
 
Daniel Nenni said:
As the song goes "anything you can do I can do better". My mother used to hum this while she destroyed me playing pool. TSMC is going to show Intel, Samsung, Globalfoundries, etc... how to build a world wide foundry ecosystem. Dresden is said to be next which will talent suck from GF Dresden for sure. Same as TSMC AZ is doing to Intel. Germany will be a good ally for Taiwan. Hopefully India will be next for TSMC since they will be the most populous country in the world very soon, absolutely. The Silicon Shield is real and getting stronger by the day, absolutely.
Click to expand...
A couple of questions if I may -

1. The silicon shield - isn't the US the only country (except Japan?) that has the navy to actually stop China from invading? I assume the silicon shield refers to a virtual shield where Germany with TSMC fabs might sanction China if they do something bad to Taiwan?

2. TSMCs showing others the path - is it an advantage in knowing how to share and transfer knowledge internally that drives this? Or something else like an existing profitable global fabrication system that they've done well at that no one else has?

Intel seems like they know how to do fabs globally, just not foundry (yet)?

Respectfully.
 
jms_embedded said:
Which chip shortage are you referring to? The one for leading edge nodes has been over for a quarter or two, the one for trailing edge nodes is still ongoing.
Click to expand...

I'm speaking of the foundries. Utilization is below 100% even on mature nodes and it will get worse before better.

According to Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons the semiconductor industry on a whole will be negative (17-22%) in 2023. I don't think it will be that extreme, especially for the foundries, but it will definitely be a down year.

On the calls I have been on this month it sounds to me like companies who ordered wafers are getting them with reasonable lead times. If not I would like to hear about it.
 
Xebec said:
A couple of questions if I may -
1. The silicon shield - isn't the US the only country (except Japan?) that has the navy to actually stop China from invading? I assume the silicon shield refers to a virtual shield where Germany with TSMC fabs might sanction China if they do something bad to Taiwan?
2. TSMCs showing others the path - is it an advantage in knowing how to share and transfer knowledge internally that drives this? Or something else like an existing profitable global fabrication system that they've done well at that no one else has?
Intel seems like they know how to do fabs globally, just not foundry (yet)?
Respectfully.
Click to expand...

Hopefully the world now knows how important semiconductors are and what would happen if the silicon supply from Taiwan stopped. Could the world economy collapse? That is the Silicon Shield. TSMC having fabs and political connections around the world makes it even stronger.

I think we have learned from the Ukraine invasion that sanctions and even military supplies are not enough to stop Russia much less China. It will have to be military action but I have no idea what that would look like.

Intel certainly knows how to build fabs for internal products but Intel is still an infant in the foundry business. Samsung would have a better chance at replacing TSMC and UMC but either way it would take years.
 
blueone said:
Yeah, Intel used to have age limits for all corporate officers (65), but the BoD would grant exceptions when they felt like it anyway. When Andy Bryant was Chairman they granted him an exception. He stayed in that position until he was 69.
Click to expand...

Hopefully we can agree that Andy Stayed too long.
 
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