Semiwiki on LinkedIn Semiwiki on Facebook Semiwiki on Twitter Register / Log in 
Array
(
    [content] => 
    [params] => Array
        (
            [0] => /forum/threads/how-much-has-the-chip-bans-accelerated-chinese-progress.22176/
        )

    [addOns] => Array
        (
            [DL6/MLTP] => 13
            [Hampel/TimeZoneDebug] => 1000070
            [SV/ChangePostDate] => 2010200
            [SemiWiki/Newsletter] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/WPMenu] => 1000010
            [SemiWiki/XPressExtend] => 1000010
            [ThemeHouse/XLink] => 1000970
            [ThemeHouse/XPress] => 1010570
            [XF] => 2021770
            [XFI] => 1050270
        )

    [wordpress] => /var/www/html
)

How much has the chip bans accelerated Chinese progress?

A

Arthur Hanson

Well-known member
Will China overcome chip and equipment bans and to what extent? Are we just forcing China to accelerate their progress and will they even come close? Any thoughts or comments appreciated.
 
China already has solid capacity base for 180-65nm, where the lion share or chips is made. Few things have changed recently. For Chines fabs, the leading edge is of little interest, and is a minuscule portion of their capacity.
 
Based on Chinese reports, anything 28nm and up will face overcapacity in 5 years.
The company can survive solely on subsidies without any profit.
This is the business model for BYD.
 
DanX said:
Based on Chinese reports, anything 28nm and up will face overcapacity in 5 years.
The company can survive solely on subsidies without any profit.
This is the business model for BYD.
Click to expand...

Yes , outside of China everyone playing the game to what appears to be a different set of rules.
No doubt Govt subsidy in a lot of places , but expectations are to have some return on those.
I read the Chinese Govt is subsidising purchase of mobile phones too.
Something clearly up if the Govt need to be su subsidising everything in order for folk to buy.
 
Chinese fab still can access to a significant portion of fab equipments from the west. In 2023 Chinese domestic WFE revenue is ~%3 of total WFE revenue worldwide.
 
DanX said:
Based on Chinese reports, anything 28nm and up will face overcapacity in 5 years.
The company can survive solely on subsidies without any profit.
This is the business model for BYD.
Click to expand...
BYD is profitable though.
 
If they cannot buy from US companies, they will make. they are capable.

10 years from now, we will ask "what caused them to develop their own semi equipment and AI chips". Answer "we did"
Since they have resources, people, intelligence they will develop on their own.

US companies do not support bans or tariffs. seems like we should be happy they want to buy from US companies
 
It’s a race against time. Chinese government has pushed self-sufficiency for more than 10 years with more than $500B subsidies in 7 years. Ban everything now, and China’s semiconductor sector implodes— an example is lithography and mask equipment sales for SMEE and ASML in 2023: $49M vs. $23B is no contest. Give it 10 years, and $47B funds a credible rival, not a leader but a survivor. The U.S. has a kill shot today; delay hands China a lifeline. Timing is everything.
 
count said:
BYD is profitable though.
Click to expand...
Not really if you minus the subsidies.
There's also the report of D-chain BYD to obtain low-cost financing.
If the D-chain fails, it will be similar to Evergrande.
D-chain is a financial tool created by BYD to issue bonds without government supervision.
 
samwu1998 said:
It’s a race against time. Chinese government has pushed self-sufficiency for more than 10 years with more than $500B subsidies in 7 years. Ban everything now, and China’s semiconductor sector implodes— an example is lithography and mask equipment sales for SMEE and ASML in 2023: $49M vs. $23B is no contest. Give it 10 years, and $47B funds a credible rival, not a leader but a survivor. The U.S. has a kill shot today; delay hands China a lifeline. Timing is everything.
Click to expand...
The Chinese will figure out some way to continue operating the machines they already have. Maybe even upgrade them.
 
samwu1998 said:
It’s a race against time. Chinese government has pushed self-sufficiency for more than 10 years with more than $500B subsidies in 7 years. Ban everything now, and China’s semiconductor sector implodes— an example is lithography and mask equipment sales for SMEE and ASML in 2023: $49M vs. $23B is no contest. Give it 10 years, and $47B funds a credible rival, not a leader but a survivor. The U.S. has a kill shot today; delay hands China a lifeline. Timing is everything.
Click to expand...

Most of that goes *in-between* state companies, so mainland doesn't even need to turn on the money printing press for that.

Underneath the market facade, PRC is still a plan economy, with constituents of its economic system transacting basically arbitrary sums without much of these money coming out of the closed circuit state economy, or out of the country.

And if you scratch deeper, you will see that the plan economy hides a still functioning military mobilisation command economy, which is an entirely different thing on its own too.

The state only pays the real cost, when these money get out of the closed economy in significant numbers. And even very expensive litho tools are not the majority of a fab project cost. So, with semi fabs, they only really pay above the material cost for stuff bought in the West for these fabs.

Comparing market, and plan economies on raw numbers just doesn't work. Comparing apples to oranges.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top