Samsung has made several attempts to surpass TSMC by taking shortcuts, such as being the first to adopt EUV for 7nm and leading with GAA technology. However, these efforts have not been successful. Looking ahead to 2030, the only significant breakthrough on the horizon is backside power rail/delivery, and it appears that Samsung is not leading in its adoption.
TSMC's current position can be attributed to various factors, but one key element is their strong risk management. Every year, TSMC seems to implement multiple strategies to ensure the successful launch of the iPhone, often building in significant redundancy in R&D. This approach instills strong confidence in their customers, who tend to prefer consistent 10-15% efficiency improvements annually over risky, leapfrog advancements.
As for HBM, I don’t believe TSMC will be a major player in the near future. TSMC has formed a strategic partnership with Hynix, and when CC Wei introduced Foundry 2.0, he specifically mentioned that it does not include memory.